Bonnie S. Glaser

Este archivo solo abarca los artículos del autor incorporados a este sitio a partir del 1 de septiembre de 2006. Para fechas anteriores realice una búsqueda entrecomillando su nombre.

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te attending a military academy graduation ceremony in Taipei, Taiwan, June 2024. Ann Wang / Reuters

MundoAsia, ,

Since 1996, all of Taiwan’s elected presidents have at some point during their time in office declared that theirs is a sovereign, independent state. The new president of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, who was elected in January and inaugurated in May, is the first to make that declaration at the beginning of his term. The chair of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and a self-described pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence, Lai delivered an inaugural speech that made clear that Taiwan is a de facto sovereign and independent country that is neither a part of nor subordinate to China. At the same time, however, Lai pledged not to provoke China or change the cross-Strait status quo.…  Seguir leyendo »

Taiwan and the True Sources of Deterrence

MundoAsia, ,

The growing might of China’s military and its increasingly aggressive posture toward Taiwan have made deterrence in the Taiwan Strait a tougher challenge than ever before. It is incumbent on the United States to support Taiwan’s efforts to develop a defensive “porcupine strategy”. Washington can help Taiwan’s military stockpile and train with coastal defense and air defense weapons, field a robust civil defense force, and create strategic reserves of critical materials such as food and fuel to deter and, if necessary, defeat an invasion or blockade of the island. The U.S. military should also better prepare to cope with China’s expanding arsenal of missiles that pose a threat to U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

No, Xi Jinping Is Not About to Attack Taiwan

MundoAsia, ,

To some observers, it may seem like Xi Jinping is itching to unify Taiwan with China.

The Chinese president has repeatedly asserted that doing so is vital to achieving his “China Dream” of national rejuvenation. He has instructed the Chinese military to be prepared by 2027 to take Taiwan by force, if necessary, and China increasingly uses its growing military might to intimidate Taiwan’s people into yielding to Chinese control. Last month, it staged large-scale naval drills involving an aircraft carrier in waters east of Taiwan and, days later, flew 103 warplanes toward the island — a single-day record.

But this bluster masks significant misgivings within China’s leadership about whether its largely unproven People’s Liberation Army forces can seize and control Taiwan at an acceptable cost, doubts that have very likely been accentuated by Russia’s military failures in Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »

A military exercise in Pingtung, Taiwan, July 2022. Ann Wang / Reuters.

MundoAsia, ,

As tension rises between Beijing and Washington over Taiwan, strategists on all sides seem to have forgotten what the American game theorist Thomas Schelling taught years ago: deterring an adversary from taking a proscribed action requires a combination of credible threats and credible assurances. Instead of heeding that lesson, a growing number of U.S. analysts and officials have called for the United States to treat Taiwan as if it were an independent state and to abandon the long-standing policy of “strategic ambiguity” in favor of “strategic clarity”, defined as an unconditional commitment to use military force to defend the island in the event of a mainland Chinese attack.…  Seguir leyendo »