Charles A. Kupchan

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¿La guerra entre Israel y Hamas podría conducir a la paz?

MundoOriente Próximo

La incursión asesina de Hamas en el sur de Israel el 7 de octubre desató una nueva andanada de derramamiento de sangre atroz en Oriente Medio. Aun si la campaña militar de Israel en respuesta a las atrocidades logra diezmar a Hamas, dejará atrás una población de Gaza conmovida, sufriente y enojada. Por otra parte, la guerra afectará las relaciones de Israel con la comunidad palestina en general y sus hermanos árabes en toda la región. Recoger los pedazos llevará bastante tiempo.

Cuesta encontrar un aspecto positivo en este brote mortal de violencia. De todos modos, vale la pena considerar si el shock provocado por la guerra no podría llevar el conflicto aparentemente inextricable entre Israel y Palestina a una eventual resolución.…  Seguir leyendo »

Rusia y Ucrania deben negociar

Europa, , ,  

La guerra en Ucrania está escalando de manera peligrosa. Ucrania está avanzando en el campo de batalla y cada vez está más determinada a expulsar al ejército ruso. Mientras tanto, el Kremlin robustece a sus fuerzas diezmadas en el este de Ucrania, ataca con fuerza las ciudades y la infraestructura crítica del país e insinúa que podría usar armas nucleares. Por su parte, Estados Unidos y sus aliados se apresuran a enviar más armas a Ucrania, preparados, como declararon hace poco, las democracias del G7, para “mantenerse firmes con Ucrania durante el tiempo que sea necesario”.

Ucrania, con la ayuda de Occidente, ha hecho una defensa firme e inspiradora de su soberanía.…  Seguir leyendo »

It’s Time to Bring Russia and Ukraine to the Negotiating Table

Europa, , ,  

The war in Ukraine is dangerously escalating. Ukraine is advancing on the battlefield and is growing only more determined to expel Russian troops. In the meantime, the Kremlin reinforces its beleaguered forces in eastern Ukraine, pounds Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure, and hints at the possible use of nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, the United States and its allies are speeding more weapons to Ukraine, prepared, as the Group of 7 leading democracies recently stated, to “stand firmly with Ukraine for as long as it takes”.

Ukraine, with the West’s help, has put up a staunch and inspiring defense of its sovereignty. But the risk of a wider war between NATO and Russia is rising by the day, as is the risk that economic blowback from a prolonged war could undermine Western democracy.…  Seguir leyendo »

Putin’s War in Ukraine Is a Watershed. Time for America to Get Real.

MundoAméricaEuropa, , , ,

During his recent speech in Warsaw, President Biden said that Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power”, only to clarify a few days later that he was merely expressing outrage, not announcing a new U.S. policy aimed at toppling Russia’s leader. The episode, interpreted by many as a dangerous gaffe, underscored the tension in U.S. foreign policy between idealism and realism.

Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine should provoke moral outrage in all of us, and, at least in principle, it warrants his removal from office. But Mr. Putin could well remain the leader of a major power into the next decade, and Washington will need to deal with him.…  Seguir leyendo »

Una salida diplomática para Ucrania

Europa, ,

Durante su conferencia anual de prensa el 23 de diciembre, el presidente ruso Vladímir Putin clamó contra la ampliación de la OTAN. «¿Cómo reaccionaría EE. UU. si instaláramos misiles cerca de sus fronteras con Canadá o México?», preguntó significativamente.

La retórica cada vez más combativa de Putin, junto a la enorme acumulación de tropas en la frontera rusa con Ucrania, sugiere que el Kremlin está preparando una invasión para reincorporar a Ucrania a su esfera de influencia y evitar que ingrese a la OTAN. Europa bien podría estar encaminándose hacia su conflicto interestatal más mortífero desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial.

Pero la guerra dista de estar predestinada, dados los costos que Rusia podría enfrentar si invade a su vecino.…  Seguir leyendo »

The skyline of lower Manhattan and One World Trade Center as the sun rises in New York City as seen from Jersey City, New Jersey. Photo by Gary Hershorn/Getty Images.

MundoAmérica
Creating better global governance is possible

Dr Anne-Marie Slaughter

The Biden administration’s foreign policy achievements can be divided into great power achievements and global achievements. In the great power category, the administration has shored up the military balance of power against China by strengthening the Quad – Japan, India, Australia, and the US – and creating a new military configuration of the US, the UK, and Australia, even as it created a serious rift with France. The Biden team is also pushing back hard against Russia, certainly in the cybersphere, and has reopened negotiations to stop Iran from becoming a nuclear power.…  Seguir leyendo »

Biden tuvo razón

MundoAméricaMundoOriente Próximo, ,

Ha sido terriblemente desalentador ver la avalancha talibán conquistando Afganistán y deshaciendo en cuestión de meses dos décadas de esfuerzos del pueblo afgano y la comunidad internacional por construir un estado decente, seguro y funcional. Los talibanes envolvieron el país con pasmosa rapidez el domingo pasado, cayendo sobre Kabul y provocando la huida del Presidente Ashraf Ghani.

La toma de Afganistán por parte de los talibanes, prácticamente sin contendores, ha hecho surgir preguntas obvias sobre la sensatez de la decisión del Presidente estadounidense Joe Biden de retirar del territorio afgano las fuerzas estadounidenses y de la coalición. Sin embargo, y paradójicamente, la rapidez y facilidad del avance talibán no hace más que reafirmar que Biden tomó la decisión correcta y que no debería revertirla.…  Seguir leyendo »

Un concierto de potencias para una era global

InternacionalOrden Mundial

El áspero diálogo que mantuvieron la semana pasada Estados Unidos y China en Alaska no augura nada bueno para las relaciones bilaterales. Y la creciente rivalidad entre los dos países es un claro presagio de que el mundo de múltiples centros de poder que está surgiendo puede traer consigo una era de más competencia y conflicto.

Una parte importante del problema es que la arquitectura de gobernanza internacional vigente (construida en su mayor parte al concluir la Segunda Guerra Mundial) está desactualizada y es incapaz de preservar la estabilidad global. El sistema de alianzas centrado en Estados Unidos es un club de democracias, no adecuado a la búsqueda de la cooperación por encima de diferencias ideológicas.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

Mientras el mundo se preocupa por un posible conflicto entre Estados Unidos e Irán, el derramamiento de sangre en Siria está escalando nuevamente. El régimen del presidente sirio, Bashar al-Assad, ha intensificado su ataque contra el bastión opositor todavía en pie en la provincia de Idlib, donde viven unos tres millones de personas, incluidas muchas que han tenido que desplazarse internamente. Para evitar una nueva pesadilla humanitaria y otro éxodo masivo de refugiados, Estados Unidos debe renovar sus esfuerzos para alcanzar la paz.

Desde que la coalición respaldada por Estados Unidos de fuerzas (esencialmente) kurdas logró desmantelar el califato territorial de Estado Islámico (EI), Estados Unidos ha comenzado a retirarse de Siria.…  Seguir leyendo »

A giant Serbian national flag was hung prior to the visit of Serbian president, Aleksandar Vucic, to Gazivode Lake in Kosovo on September 8, 2018. Armend Nimani/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Europa, ,

The Balkans remains in strategic limbo. Kosovo declared independence from Serbia 10 years ago, but Serbia has yet to come to terms with its loss — refusing to recognize Kosovo and stirring trouble between the country’s ethnic Serbs and the ethnic Albanian majority. Almost two decades after the NATO bombing campaign to drive Yugoslav forces from Kosovo, some 4,000 NATO troops remain there to keep the peace.

A breakthrough may now be in the making. It is a morally offensive one, but nonetheless the United States and the European Union should get behind it.

President Aleksandar Vucic of Serbia and President Hashim Thaci of Kosovo are apparently working on a proposal to engage in a land swap that could bring the simmering conflict to an end.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Battle Line for Western Values Runs Through Poland

EuropaUnión EuropeaUE a debate

The European Union is the West’s last line of defense. The United States has historically been the world’s anchor of republican ideals, but President Trump has abandoned the role, openly admiring strongmen like Vladimir Putin of Russia. As the temptations of nationalist populism spread, Europe has responsibility for holding down the Western fort. The primary battle right now is over Poland, which is deepening its descent into illiberalism. The European Union needs to take a firm stand in defense of Western values.

Since coming to power in 2015, Poland’s populist government has sought to control the news media, purged and politicized the civil service, and intimidated intellectuals and civil society organizations.…  Seguir leyendo »

American and Polish troops taking part in the official welcoming ceremony for NATO troops in Orzysz, Poland, in April. Credit Wojtek Radwanski/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

InternacionalOTAN

Of the many foreign policy pledges that President Trump made as a candidate, one of the few worth keeping is to improve relations with Russia. Fueled most recently by Russian interference in the American election and differences over Syria, tensions between Washington and Moscow compromise American interests in Europe, the Middle East and beyond. If Mr. Trump is serious about reducing those tensions and mending ties with the Kremlin, he should use the occasion of this week’s summit conference in Brussels to call for a halt to NATO enlargement.

As is his style, Mr. Trump would be breaking with foreign policy orthodoxy — except this time, it would be fully warranted.…  Seguir leyendo »

ReflexionesDemocraciaMundoOriente Próximo

The Egyptian military’s bloody crackdown on supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood is yet another sign of the dark side of the Arab awakening. Across the Middle East, glimmerings of democracy are being snuffed out by political turmoil and violence.

That reality requires a sobering course correction in American policy. Rather than viewing the end of autocracy’s monopoly as a ripe moment to spread democracy in the region, Washington should downsize its ambition and work with transitional governments to establish the foundations of responsible, even if not democratic, rule.

Ever since the Egyptian military seized power last month, the United States government, backed by much of the country’s foreign policy elite, has demanded the restoration of democratic rule.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaMundoOriente Próximo,

During his recent visit to Israel, President Barack Obama pulled off a major breakthrough in relations between Israel and Turkey. After forging very close ties during the 1990s, Jerusalem and Ankara have of late gone their separate ways. The estrangement peaked as a result of Israel’s 2010 interdiction of the Mavi Marmara, a Turkish ship that was attempting to break the blockade of the Gaza Strip. The Israeli operation resulted in the death of nine activists on board the vessel. The Turkish government was incensed, and an Istanbul court went on to indict four Israeli commanders allegedly responsible for the mission.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaUnión EuropeaUE a debate

Storm clouds are darkening over Britain’s relationship with the European Union. Prime Minister David Cameron is backing away from the Union, ostensibly seeking to fashion the more distant relationship between London and Brussels needed to keep the U.K. in the E.U. But he may well be putting in motion a political process that will culminate in Britain’s exit from Europe.

That outcome would deal a serious blow to European solidarity, deny the E.U. the valuable role that London continues to play in guiding economic integration and the enlargement of the Union, and shake the foundations of the trans-Atlantic alliance.

Before Britain’s self-isolation becomes irreversible, Europeans and Americans alike had better face up to the potential consequences of the U.K.’s…  Seguir leyendo »

InternacionalOrden Mundial

It's election season again, and the main contenders for the Oval Office are knocking themselves out to reassure Americans that their nation remains at the pinnacle of the global pecking order. Mitt Romney recently declared that “this century must be an American century.” Not to be outdone, President Obama insisted in his State of the Union address that “anyone who tells you that America is in decline” doesn’t “know what they’re talking about.”

Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama might overdo it a bit, but they’re actually not far off the mark. Despite two draining wars, sluggish growth and a diffusion of power from the West to China and the “rising rest,” a combination of economic resilience and military superiority will keep the United States at or near the top for decades.…  Seguir leyendo »

ReflexionesDemocracia,

A crisis of governability has beset the Western world. It is no accident that the United States, Europe and Japan are simultaneously experiencing political breakdown; globalization is producing a widening gap between what electorates are asking of their governments and what those governments can deliver. The mismatch between the growing demand for good governance and its shrinking supply is one of the gravest challenges facing the West today.

Globalization was supposed to have played to the advantage of liberal societies, which were presumably best suited to capitalize on the fast and fluid global marketplace. But instead, for the better part of two decades, middle-class wages in the world’s leading democracies have been stagnant and economic inequality has been rising sharply.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaInternacionalOTAN,

At Wednesday’s meeting of NATO defense ministers with their Russian counterpart, the Western alliance will seek to win Russian support for and cooperation in a European missile-defense system.

Moscow’s assent would constitute a major step toward rapprochement between NATO and its former enemy, advancing the cause of anchoring Russia firmly in the Euro-Atlantic community.

Moscow is no longer vehemently denouncing any and all U.S. talk of missile defense and instead appears ready to explore ways to merge its own evolving system with NATO’s. Nonetheless, the issue is far from settled and, if not managed carefully, has the potential to scuttle the progress already made in resetting Russia relations with the West.…  Seguir leyendo »

ReflexionesIslam y Mundo Árabe,

As the violence escalates in Libya, Western governments remain tongue-tied and befuddled as they struggle to react to the popular revolts that are sweeping the Middle East. At one moment, they eagerly compare the uprisings to the French revolution or the fall of the Berlin Wall. At the next, they cautiously backpedal, clearly mindful of the threats the revolts pose to the West’s strategic and economic interests.

The confusion is understandable. The unrest marks a buoyant reaffirmation of the universal desire for voice and dignity and may well enable democracy to take root in the Middle East. At the same time, the uprisings are not only producing bloodshed, but also toppling regimes on which the West relies for energy and strategic cooperation.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaUnión EuropeaUE a debate

L'Union européenne est à l'agonie - pas une mort spectaculaire ni soudaine, non, mais une agonie si lente et si progressive qu'un jour prochain, nous Américains, en portant nos regards de l'autre côté de l'Atlantique, découvrirons peut-être que ce projet d'intégration européenne qui allait de soi depuis un demi-siècle a cessé d'être.

Le déclin européen est en partie économique. De nombreux Etats membres de l'Union paient un lourd tribut à la crise financière, et les dettes publiques colossales et la santé précaire des banques du continent ne laissent rien présager de bon. Pourtant, ces malheurs semblent bien bénins comparés à un mal plus grave encore : de Londres à Varsovie en passant par Berlin, l'Europe subit une renationalisation de la vie politique, et ses pays membres réclament la souveraineté qu'ils sacrifiaient jadis bien volontiers au nom d'un idéal collectif.…  Seguir leyendo »