Chris Miller

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How to Stop Our High-Tech Equipment From Arming Russia and China

MundoAméricaMundoAsiaEuropa, , ,

The U.S. government’s efforts to stop Russia and China from using American equipment to boost their defense sectors have resulted in tough rules — but leaky enforcement. As a result, American-made tools keep turning up in Russian missile factories and in Huawei’s supply chain. With war in Europe and China threatening its neighbors, that’s just not good enough.

The United States and its allies make the most advanced tools for both precision metalworking and semiconductor manufacturing. With international tensions rising, the United States and its allies have been right to try to prohibit adversaries from using these tools to manufacture weapons that undermine America’s military edge.…  Seguir leyendo »

Inspecting circuit boards at a factory in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, July 2017. Jose Luis Gonzalez / Reuters

MundoAmérica,

Since Congress passed the CHIPS and Science Act one year ago, there has been much talk about how to shift electronics and computing supply chains away from China. In addition to the rapid buildup of domestic manufacturing capacity spurred by the CHIPS Act tax credits and incentives, the intensification of China-U.S. tensions and the imposition of export controls are encouraging many multinational technology companies to relocate production and assembly outside of China. Until now, this has meant a greater emphasis on other parts of Asia: multinational firms are increasing their reliance on countries such as Vietnam and Thailand that already have a deep ecosystem of electronics suppliers, significant know-how, and low-cost workforces; and they are also investing more in India, which is seeking a prime position in the future of the electronics industry.…  Seguir leyendo »

InternacionalEconomía

Amid hightensions with China and the steep cost of confrontation, Western leaders have adopted a buzzword to describe their strategy: “de-risking”. This involves continuing to roll out tech and investment restrictions on China, but coupling them with high-level summitry and calls to keep trade flowing. The aim is to limit the risk of escalation in both the political and economic spheres. It is unlikely to work.

The West shifted away from the tougher “decoupling” rhetoric and towards de-risking and “economic security” for two reasons. First, hawks in Japan and America needed softer language to keep on board wobbly European allies, who call China a “systemic rival” but prefer that other countries pay the price of restraining it.…  Seguir leyendo »

Europa,

In April, just weeks after he launched the invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin maintained that the West could never strangle Russia’s economy. The barrage of American and European sanctions had not succeeded and would not succeed in bringing his country to its knees. “We can already confidently say that this policy toward Russia has failed”, he told his officials. “The strategy of an economic blitzkrieg has failed”.

Such defiant posturing can be expected of Putin and other Russian leaders. But now, six months after the beginning of the war and the imposition of sanctions, many observers are questioning whether Western sanctions have had the tough effects their architects promised.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Western sanctions are beginning to hit Russia where it hurts most: its energy exports. Over the last few weeks, the European Union, the biggest buyer of Russian oil, has been working on a plan to ban imports by the end of this year, although objections by Viktor Orban of Hungary have slowed progress.

For energy sanctions to work, however, they must be carefully designed to hurt Russia more than they hurt Western states. Their primary goal should not be to cut the volume of oil and gas leaving Russia, which would further drive up world energy prices and endanger domestic support, but to reduce the dollars and euros flowing into Russia.…  Seguir leyendo »

Europa, , , ,

The economic sanctions that the West has imposed on Russia have been unprecedented in their speed, scale, and scope. Within just a week of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine in February, the United States and its allies prohibited their people and companies from doing business with the Central Bank of Russia, the largest entity targeted since U.S. sanctions against Japan before Pearl Harbor. They also levied an array of other penalties, including sanctions on state-owned Russian banks and controls on critical technology exports to Russia. By any measure, the West delivered on the “swift and severe consequences” that U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

A Russian convoy headed toward Georgia in 2008. Credit Louisa Gouliamaki/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Europa, , ,

There is no world leader today with a better track record when it comes to using military power than President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. Whether against Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 or in Syria since 2015, the Russian military has repeatedly converted battlefield successes into political victories. Russia’s rearmament over the past decade and a half has been unmatched by a comparable increase in Western capabilities. So it is no surprise why Russia feels emboldened to use its military power while the West stands by.

Russia’s past three wars are textbook examples of how to use military force in limited ways to achieve political goals.…  Seguir leyendo »

Will Anything Stop Putin’s Pet Project?

Europa, , ,

After the imprisonment this month of the opposition leader Aleksei Navalny, punishing Russia is back on the agenda. On Monday, European Union foreign ministers agreed to impose sanctions on Russian officials, with the final details to come.

Yet such measures are unlikely to satisfy the Kremlin’s critics. They have in their sights a pet project of President Vladimir Putin’s: Nord Stream 2, a pipeline under the Baltic Sea that would supply natural gas directly to Germany.

The project has already survived fierce opposition from many European countries and the United States. And Germany, for which the pipeline is part of Europe’s delicate geopolitical balancing act, is committed to finishing it.…  Seguir leyendo »