Christopher S. Chivvis

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On Febraury 24th, the war in Ukraine will pass its one-year mark with no end in sight. The costs are mounting, Europe faces an epic refugee crisis, tens of thousands of people have died and total casualties now run into the hundreds of thousands. Plans to provide Ukraine with Western tanks, announced in recent days, indicate that America, Germany and others are settling in for a much longer war. But in a prolonged conflict, far more will perish. Western leaders would be making a big mistake by not pushing for negotiations to end the fighting, even as they continue to support Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »

‘These tanks aren’t going to help end the war anytime soon.’ Photograph: Ints Kalniņš/Reuters

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Christopher S Chivvis: ‘How does this end?’

These tanks aren’t going to help end the war any time soon. Hopefully, they are intended to build up Kyiv’s negotiating position and this might encourage the Kremlin to rethink its extreme war aims, thus moving this war toward a negotiated endgame. But the Ukrainians are likely to see the decision as a western endorsement of their aim of beating Russia definitively on the battlefield. This works against diplomacy and tends to draw the war out.

The tanks are not a gamechanger. Together, the three kinds of tanks – Challenger, Leopard, and Abrams – will give Ukraine more offensive firepower and help them break through Russia’s fortified positions.…  Seguir leyendo »

Putin threatened to use nuclear weapons to ‘protect Russia’ – implying he may use them to defend the regions he is annexing. Photograph: AP

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News of the Ukrainian army’s recent advances swept across western capitals like fresh air. A war that was for months mired in crushing artillery fire had suddenly opened up. Russian forces, outmaneuvered by the Ukrainian army, fled, again proving weaker than anyone expected. Hopes lifted that Ukraine could win the war and force their tormentor back to the prewar battlelines – and perhaps further.

Russia shared the same assessment. Vladimir Putin knows his military is badly damaged and getting weaker. The Russian president responded with military mobilization and preparations to annex the Ukrainian regions Russia now controls, just as he did in Crimea in 2014.…  Seguir leyendo »

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The ruble’s dramatic decline threatens to plunge Russia into a full-scale economic crisis. President Vladimir Putin has attempted to minimize the difficulties and deflect blame toward the West, but the problem is serious and no one is to blame but Mr. Putin himself. His efforts to destabilize Ukraine have brought painful sanctions upon Russia, reinforced its dependence on oil and isolated its economy.

Yet Russia’s crisis holds both risk and opportunity. The risk is that an economic collapse might lead the Kremlin to lash out more severely against Ukraine and the West. But there is an opportunity to be seized if the ruble’s fragility increases Russia’s readiness to de-escalate the war in Ukraine in exchange for relief on sanctions and revitalized economic ties with the West.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoÁfrica

Over the weekend, Libya celebrated the second anniversary of the outbreak of the revolt that toppled Muammar el-Qaddafi. The violence many had feared was avoided, but this should not be cause for complacency.

The clock is ticking for Libya’s future. Libya’s government is dysfunctional, armed militias control much of the country, and the population is increasingly frustrated with the pace of postwar progress. Libyans and international actors must act now to stave off a slide back into civil war.

Walking the streets of Tripoli, the threats to Libya’s security can easily seem exaggerated. You can enjoy a coffee at a picturesque Mediterranean café.…  Seguir leyendo »