Crisis Group

Nota: Este archivo abarca los artículos publicados por el autor desde el 1 de Marzo de 2008. Para fechas anteriores realice una búsqueda entrecomillando su nombre.

Employees of the Ministry of Emergency Situations work near destroyed houses in Ganja, Azerbaijan on 11 October 2020. They were hit by shelling after fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces began in and around Nagorno-Karabakh on 27 September. Mikhail Voskresenskiy / Sputnik via AFP.

Two weeks into a renewed war between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces over the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and its environs, fighting appears poised to escalate. On 10 October, a Russian-brokered humanitarian ceasefire intended to enable combatants to retrieve the bodies of the dead and exchange prisoners appeared to fall apart as its ink was drying. Both sides have since struck towns and villages, with enormous damage to lives and livelihoods. While it may take time for the parties to return to peace talks, they and international actors must act to stem the mounting human toll. Whatever an eventual settlement entails, it will be closer to hand and more sustainable if the parties stop killing civilians and adding fresh grievances to an already intractable conflict.…  Seguir leyendo »

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (L) shakes hands with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at Irqah Palace in the capital Riyadh on 20 February 2020. ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / POOL / AFP

The Washington Post reported on 25 September that U.S. officials are considering a potentially consequential new step in Washington’s approach to Yemen: either designating the Huthis – the term used by most Yemenis to describe the rebel group that controls the capital Sanaa and much of north-western Yemen and calls itself Ansar Allah – as a foreign terrorist organisation or naming particular Huthi leaders as specially designated global terrorists. When Washington designates a group as a foreign terrorist organisation, it makes material support for that group a crime, freezes its assets and bars its members from entering the U.S. The consequences of an individual designation are similar but slightly less onerous.…  Seguir leyendo »

¿Qué hay de nuevo? Los líderes sociales en Colombia enfrentan una creciente ola de ataques en su lucha por los derechos de las comunidades afectadas por el conflicto. La violencia dirigida contra estos activistas ha aumentado a pesar de los compromisos establecidos en el acuerdo de paz de 2016 para proteger a la sociedad civil. El COVID-19 ha exacerbado la inseguridad para estos líderes ya que grupos armados han explotado las restricciones a la movilidad para consolidar su control.

¿Por qué importa? Los líderes sociales se encuentran entre los defensores más fervientes del acuerdo de paz y de las víctimas del conflicto.…  Seguir leyendo »

After a bitter three-decades-long standoff marked by sporadic violence and deadlocked negotiations, Azerbaijan and Armenia have returned to war over the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Clashes on the front lines followed by an Azerbaijani dawn offensive on September 27 have spilled into days of fighting that have left dozens of soldiers and civilians dead on both sides. Despite international calls for restraint, the mood among both Armenians and Azerbaijanis is bellicose. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has made his own hawkish statements in support of Baku. Absent urgent international action, fighting looks set to escalate further, at terrible cost.

Russia, potentially with European support, probably stands the best chance of brokering a ceasefire.…  Seguir leyendo »

A crowd of people cheer Malian army soldiers at the Independence Square after a mutiny, in Bamako, Mali August 18, 2020. Picture taken August 18, 2020. REUTERS/Moussa Kalapo

A la faveur d’un coup d’Etat ayant vu l’arrestation du président malien Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta et de son Premier ministre Boubou Cissé, les militaires ont pris le pouvoir au Mali le 18 août 2020. Ce coup est la dernière expression en date d’une crise politique majeure, marquée depuis début juin par de nombreuses manifestations qui réclament la démission du président Keïta. Les partenaires régionaux et internationaux de Bamako demandent, en toute légitimité, que l’ordre constitutionnel soit restauré. Ils doivent maintenir la pression sur les militaires afin que ceux-ci tiennent leur engagement de restituer le pouvoir aux civils dans les plus brefs délais.…  Seguir leyendo »

People take part in a protest against the presidential election results demanding the resignation of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and the release of political prisoners, in Minsk, Belarus on 16 August 2020. REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko

As protests and strikes in Belarus enter their second week, Moscow, Brussels and many other European capitals have struggled to respond. The politics that brought Belarusians to the streets of their villages, towns and cities are local: they are angry that their president of 26 years has tried to steal yet another election. But if the crisis in Belarus is at its core anything but an East-West standoff, it is happening at a time when hasty responses by either Russia or Western states could turn it into just that. Because such a showdown would serve no one’s interests, all stakeholders should take care to consult with each other and coordinate their policies, even as they do what they can to help Belarus and Belarusians.…  Seguir leyendo »

A view of the port the day after a massive explosion at the port on August 5, 2020 in Beirut, Lebanon. Houssam Hariri / NurPhoto via AFP

From all we know, the blast that destroyed much of the port in the Lebanese capital Beirut in the early evening of 4 August was an accident – but if so, it was an accident only in name. Storing, against repeated warnings, more than 2,750 tons of highly explosive ammonium nitrate for nearly seven years under unsuitable conditions near a densely populated area amounted to asking for a catastrophe to happen. Blatant, perhaps criminal, negligence and bureaucratic ineptitude were the immediate causes of the explosion that killed over 150, injured more than 5,000, displaced up to 300,000 and caused an estimated $2 billion in damage to the city – and counting.…  Seguir leyendo »

Indigenous people stage a protest against the postponement of presidential elections amid the Coronavirus outbreak, in El Alto, Bolivia on July 28, 2020. Marcelo Perez Del Carpio / Anadolu Agency via AFP

¿Qué hay de nuevo? Bolivia celebrará elecciones presidenciales el 18 de octubre. Sumado al desafío de una jornada electoral en medio de la pandemia del COVID-19, el legado de las polémicas elecciones del 2019, que desencadenaron violentos disturbios y llevó al expresidente Evo Morales a abandonar el país, conduce a que ambas partes tengan una fuerte desconfianza del sistema electoral.

¿Por qué importa? A finales del 2019, un acuerdo para celebrar nuevas elecciones bajo una autoridad electoral reformada calmó los disturbios. Aun así, las elecciones del 2019 siguen siendo controversiales, al igual que el papel de los observadores de la Organización de los Estados Americanos, cuyas declaraciones determinaron la percepción de que hubo fraude.…  Seguir leyendo »

Figura 3: Historia de tuits por muestras de cuentas anti- y pro-Bukele Fuente: Análisis de Crisis Group de datos de Twitter.

El salvadoreño Nayib Bukele, ganó la presidencia en el 2019 tras prometer reducir las entonces astronómicas tasas de homicidios del país y ponerle freno a la corrupción. En efecto, las tasas de homicidios han caído significativamente desde su elección. Pero las políticas de Bukele han resultado controversiales. Los críticos dicen que las acciones del presidente, como recluir a pandilleros en celdas sin luz del día y forzar al Parlamento y a las altas cortes, vulneran los derechos humanos y erosionan la democracia. Al mismo tiempo, estas políticas lo han hecho más popular que nunca, y muchos salvadoreños atribuyen la disminución de los homicidios a su estilo eficiente y al punto.…  Seguir leyendo »

In a ruling that was expected as much as it was feared, Venezuela’s government-controlled Supreme Court on 12 June dashed any slender hope that this year’s legislative elections, due in December, might be run by a balanced electoral authority and widely regarded as valid. Instead, declaring that the National Assembly – the country’s parliament – had once again failed to agree on the membership of the National Electoral Council’s (CNE) five-person board, the Court appointed its own, weighted in the government’s favour. The ruling’s immediate aftermath marked yet another low point for Venezuela’s battered democracy. While the opposition lambasted the decision as evidence that President Nicolás Maduro was perpetuating his grip on the electoral system and preparing to run another rigged poll, the Court proceeded to hand control of two (and potentially three) leading opposition parties to minority factions willing to participate in the elections.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iran's newly elected legislatures convened to elect the presidium and new parliament speaker in Tehran, Iran on 28 May 2020. Tasnim News Agency/Erfan Kouchari

Iran inaugurated a conservative-dominated parliament (Majles) on 27 May, following an election that saw a historically low participation rate. Against the backdrop of recurrent domestic unrest, economic hardship, the COVID-19 pandemic and elevated tensions with the U.S., what happens in the new legislature could prove a bellwether for the 2021 presidential election and the direction of Iran’s domestic and foreign policy.

Shaping the 11th Majles

Three consecutive national elections – the presidential race that brought Hassan Rouhani into office in 2013, the 2016 parliamentary vote and Rouhani’s re-election in 2017 – yielded successive victories for the alliance of political camps that in Iran’s fluid factional landscape are labelled the reformist and pragmatist blocs.…  Seguir leyendo »

Hasta el momento, Venezuela parece haberse salvado de lo peor de la pandemia de COVID-19, según informes del gobierno de mediados de mayo en los que reportan solo unos cientos de casos y un puñado de muertes. Pero la crisis económica mundial provocada por el coronavirus, sumada a la emergencia humanitaria existente y al impacto de las sanciones de los EE. UU., amenaza con producir una catástrofe, incluso si el precario sistema de salud del país logra palear la pandemia. El petróleo es el pilar de la economía venezolana y su precio ha caído por debajo del costo promedio de producción.…  Seguir leyendo »

À l’approche de l’élection présidentielle prévue en octobre, les tensions en Côte d’Ivoire se matérialisent le long de lignes de fracture politiques et ethniques qui perdurent depuis de nombreuses années.

Même si le président Alassane Ouattara a contribué à désamorcer une crise potentielle lorsqu’il s’est officiellement retiré de la course à la présidence en mars, évitant ainsi un différend majeur sur la constitutionnalité de sa candidature pour un troisième mandat, les responsables politiques de l’opposition accusent maintenant son gouvernement de les empêcher de se mesurer au nouveau candidat du parti au pouvoir, le Premier ministre Amadou Gon Coulibaly. Ils se plaignent d’un climat de harcèlement et d’intimidation et du fait que les autorités œuvrent par l’intermédiaire des tribunaux à les mettre, eux et leurs partisans, derrière les barreaux pour des motifs fallacieux.…  Seguir leyendo »

As a presidential election scheduled for October draws closer, tensions in Côte d’Ivoire are building along longstanding political and ethnic fault lines.

Although President Alassane Ouattara helped defuse a potential crisis when he formally withdrew from the presidential race in March, avoiding a major dispute over the constitutionality of his running for a third term, opposition politicians now accuse his government of hampering them from competing against the new ruling-party candidate, Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly. They complain of a climate of harassment and intimidation, and that the authorities are working through the courts to put them and their supporters behind bars on spurious grounds.…  Seguir leyendo »

Venezuela has so far been spared the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, with the government reporting, by mid-May, only a few hundred cases and a handful of deaths. But the global economic crisis sparked by the coronavirus, on top of the existing humanitarian emergency and the impact of U.S. sanctions, threatens to produce a catastrophe even if the country’s threadbare health service is not overwhelmed by the disease itself. Oil is Venezuela’s fiscal mainstay, and its price has fallen below the average costs of production. An economy that has already shrunk by over 60 per cent since 2013 is now reeling from the effects of a nationwide quarantine and a critical shortage of fuel.…  Seguir leyendo »

Civil activists Dingamnayal Nely Versinis (L) and Maounde Decladore (R) speak during a meeting in N'Djamena on 24 July 2017. AFP/Samir TOUNSI

Socio-economic problems are mounting in Chad, a country seen by foreign partners as critical to stability in the Sahel. In the capital Ndjamena and in the provinces, popular discontent appears set to grow as the cost of living in the oil-dependent central African country continues to rise. After a small economic improvement in 2019, Chadians are likely to see tougher times ahead with the drop in international oil prices and the global recession brought on by the coronavirus pandemic and efforts to control its spread.

Chad also faces new security problems and political uncertainty. Over the last year, the country’s north has been hit by both Chadian rebel incursions from southern Libya and, in another northern area, a spike in tensions between security forces and local self-defence groups.…  Seguir leyendo »

A supporter of the ruling party the National Council for the Defense of Democracy - Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) attends the opening of the campaign in Gitega, central Burundi, on 27 April 2020. Tchandrou Nitanga / AFP

What is the political backdrop to these elections?

Burundi’s elections set for 20 May are expected to deliver a new president. The fifteen-year incumbent, Pierre Nkurunziza, is not running, thereby making way for Évariste Ndayishimiye as the ruling-party candidate. Few Burundians, however, expect a fair election, and many expect violent contestation of the results. In the last year, the government has stepped up its campaign of repression, deploying security forces and the ruling party’s Imbonerakure youth militia to crack down on the political opposition. The resulting climate of fear and resentment has been compounded by a prolonged economic crisis and a government-imposed system of forced contributions, which was ostensibly set up to finance the elections but is widely understood to have funded the Imbonerakure.…  Seguir leyendo »

A soldier stands guard outside the Municipal Presidency in Villa Union, Coahuila state, Mexico, on December 2, 2019. Julio Cesar AGUILAR / AFP

El año 2019 fue el más violento en la historia mexicana reciente, debido en gran parte a una escalada de enfrentamientos entre facciones del crimen organizado. Pero la atención prestada por los medios de comunicación a la suerte de capos del narcotráfico como El Chapo pasa por alto las realidades en terreno que parecen estar elevando las tasas de homicidios cada vez más. En general, las organizaciones criminales mexicanas se han vuelto cada vez más pequeñas y sus actividades se han restringido a lugares cada vez más específicos. Luchan por modestas fracciones de la economía, como la producción y distribución de tabaco, aguacates e hígados de marsopa, un manjar en la cocina china.…  Seguir leyendo »

Posters of Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar line the streets of the eastern Libyan city of al-Bayda, where the (unrecognised) interim government in located, November 2018. CRISISGROUP

In a short televised speech late on 27 April, Khalifa Haftar declared that he accepted the people’s “mandate” to scrap the 2015 UN-mediated Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) and empower the General Command of the Arab Libyan Armed Forces (ALAF), the military force he heads, to take charge of the country’s governing institutions.

The LPA gives international recognition to the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord, against which Haftar has waged a deadly war since April 2019. While neither Haftar nor the allied Tobruk-based House of Representatives and its government has recognised the LPA, they have accepted it as the basis for negotiations.…  Seguir leyendo »

Migrants walk across the Paso del Norte border bridge after being deported from the United States amid the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico April 21, 2020. REUTERS/ Jose Luis Gonzalez

Under-resourced health systems and poverty, along with the grassroots power of criminal groups and gangs, make Central American countries highly vulnerable to COVID-19 and the knock-on effects of national lockdowns on people’s livelihoods and security. But it is the region’s relentless migratory flows, whether legal or undocumented, forced or voluntary, that are shaping up to be the weakest links in virus prevention campaigns. Above all, deportations from the U.S. and Mexico now threaten to become leading vectors of southward transmission and could spark worsening unrest among fearful residents. Central American governments should respond by urging the U.S. either to pause deportations or to reform how they are handled, ensuring that strict health checks are in place before any more migrants are sent back.…  Seguir leyendo »