Crisis Group (Continuación)

Thinking Through the Dilemmas of Aid to Afghanistan

The suspension of external funding for Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover has exacerbated an already dire humanitarian situation. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2021 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to maximise humanitarian assistance, set humanitarian benchmarks for the Taliban to receive further funding and prepare for the possibility of new waves of migration.

Afghanistan is in the throes of a humanitarian crisis – driven by displacement, drought, the COVID-19 pandemic and a struggling economy – that has sharply worsened since the Taliban’s takeover and the prior government’s collapse on 15 August. A fundamental challenge is the country’s extreme dependency on external funds, much of which are now suspended due to understandable foreign concerns about the Taliban government’s direction.…  Seguir leyendo »

An Opportunity for the EU to Help Steer through Reform in Burundi

Reform promises by Burundian President Evariste Ndayishimiye have led to a marked improvement in relations with the EU. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2021 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to set benchmarks for Burundian human rights reforms and ensure compliance with EU-Burundi agreements.

After years of strained ties, the European Union (EU) and Burundi again are on speaking terms. The country’s president, Evariste Ndayishimiye, in power since June 2020, started talks with Brussels in February that could eventually lead the EU to resume direct budgetary support for Burundi. In 2016, due to concerns about Burundian government abuses, the EU invoked the suspension provisions in Article 96 of the Cotonou Agreement – its partnership pact with various African, Caribbean and Pacific states – as the basis for cutting that support amid the violent turmoil following former President Pierre Nkurunziza’s contested 2015 election bid.…  Seguir leyendo »

An Opportunity for the EU to Help Steer through Reform in Burundi

Les réformes promises par le Président burundais Evariste Ndayishimiye ont apaisé les relations avec l’UE. Dans cet extrait de notre Watch List 2021 – Edition d’automne, Crisis Group exhorte l’UE et ses Etats membres à énoncer des critères précis en matière de respect des droits humains au Burundi et à veiller au respect des accords conclus entre l’UE et le Burundi.

Après des années de rapports tendus, l’Union européenne (UE) et le Burundi ont rouvert le dialogue. Le président Evariste Ndayishimiye, au pouvoir depuis juin 2020, a entamé en février des pourparlers avec Bruxelles qui pourraient, à terme, amener l’UE à reprendre son soutien budgétaire direct au Burundi.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iran: Push to Revive the Nuclear Deal, but Prepare for Worse Outcomes

The future of the Iran nuclear deal remains uncertain and the new Iranian president has stalled the already slow negotiations. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2021 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to support the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action’s (JCPOA) full restoration, encourage efforts for regional dialogue and prepare contingency plans in case of a breakdown with Tehran.

The fate of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 deal placing limitations on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, looms large in the country’s relations with Europe. The three European parties to the accord – European Union (EU) member states France and Germany, as well as the UK – have helped keep it alive, if not exactly thriving, since the U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

Helping Stabilise the New Status Quo in Nagorno-Karabakh

While the armed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has subsided, Armenia and Azerbaijan are still far from a political settlement. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2021 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to press for negotiations between Baku and Yerevan, aid to the affected regions and cooperate with Moscow, which has peacekeepers on the ground and the most leverage over the conflict parties.

Almost a year after a Russian-brokered ceasefire ended the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan and Armenia remain at loggerheads. With Armenian forces withdrawn, Russian peacekeepers now patrol the part of Nagorno-Karabakh that remains outside Azerbaijani control, but they are operating without a detailed mandate and risk being stretched too thin.…  Seguir leyendo »

Nicaragua: Dealing with the Dangers of a One-Sided Poll

The crackdown on political opposition by the Nicaraguan government ahead of 7 November elections has strained the country's regional and international ties. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2021 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to press for an end to the ongoing mass arrests and better preparation in neighbouring countries for the arrival of Nicaraguan refugees.

An unrelenting crackdown on the political opposition by the Nicaraguan government has turned November’s elections into a potential flashpoint and spurred a sharp deterioration in relations between President Daniel Ortega and other Latin American nations, the U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

Nicaragua: Dealing with the Dangers of a One-Sided Poll

La represión de la oposición política por parte del gobierno nicaragüense en vísperas de las elecciones del 7 de noviembre, ha causado tensiones en los lazos internacionales del país. En este extracto de la Watch List 2021 - Actualización de Otoño, Crisis Group insta a la UE y a sus Estados miembros a presionar para poner fin a las detenciones masivas en curso, y que se mejore la preparación de los países vecinos para la llegada de refugiados nicaragüenses.

La implacable represión a la oposición política por parte del gobierno nicaragüense ha convertido las elecciones de noviembre en un potencial foco de tensión y ha deteriorado considerablemente las relaciones entre el presidente Daniel Ortega y otras naciones latinoamericanas, EE.…  Seguir leyendo »

Statement on China's Release of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor

Of all the words Crisis Group has written it’s hard to imagine any meaning more to us than these: Michael Kovrig is free.

After more than 1,000 days in detention in Beijing, our colleague Michael was released, together with another Canadian Michael Spavor, on 24 September. Both Michaels are on their way back to their loved ones in Canada. We’re relieved the government of China has righted this wrong.

Crisis Group is hugely grateful to many people who have worked tirelessly in support of Michael. We thank the Canadian government for securing his release and the resolute efforts of many Canadian officials throughout his detention.…  Seguir leyendo »

U.S. Air Force ground crew secure weapons and other components of an MQ-9 Reaper drone after it returned from a mission, at Kandahar Airfield, Afghanistan, 9 March 2016. REUTERS/Josh Smith

What’s new? The U.S. government is conducting a formal review of its counter-terrorism direct action operations – ie, those that involve kill or capture. But it is not clear that the review will shed light on key questions about the effectiveness of militarised counter-terrorism efforts or recommend major changes.

Why does it matter? The so-called global war on terror deserves greater oversight. Since the 11 September 2001 attacks, the U.S. has waged war upon numerous jihadist groups in a dozen or more countries. Decisions to change the conflict’s scope are often taken unilaterally and in secret by the executive branch.

What should be done?…  Seguir leyendo »

Somalia’s President (C), Prime Minister (R), and Speaker of the Somali parliament (L), attend the closing ceremony after reaching an agreement for the new elections at the National Consultative Council on Elections in Mogadishu , on 27 May 2021. Abdirahman Yusuf / AFP

After bubbling for weeks, tensions between Somali Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and President Mohammed Abdullahi Mohamed “Farmajo” have burst into the open, nearly triggering another clash between rival branches of the federal forces, in scenes that echoed confrontations in Mogadishu several months ago. Following the unexplained murder of a national intelligence agent and Roble’s subsequent suspension of the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) chief, both the prime minister and president moved to appoint a new agency leader. The ensuing tensions nearly sparked a firefight, with opposing units facing off at NISA headquarters on 8 September. Although the forces in Farmajo’s camp backed down, the underlying frictions could yet cause violence and threaten long-overdue indirect elections.…  Seguir leyendo »

Press members and Taliban officials are seen as Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid holds a press conference in Kabul, Afghanistan on 7 September 2021. Mullah Mohammad Hasan Akhundzada is announced to lead Taliban's administration in Afghanistan. Sayed Khodaiberdi Sadat / Anadolu Agency via AFP

The Taliban announced an “interim” cabinet on 7 September, their first step since taking power on 15 August toward forming a government and signalling how they intend to rule. The cabinet is filled with long-time key Taliban figures from their days as a government and later an insurgency, and it bears a strong resemblance to their former regime of the 1990s. The appointments will reassure the Taliban’s rank and file that their leadership remains unified and has not succumbed to pressure to show a more moderate face, but it will not be appreciated by many others. The roster does not reflect Afghan diversity, and it offers no olive branches to a wary international community.…  Seguir leyendo »

Afghan nationals walk along a fenced corridor after crossing into Pakistan through the Pakistan-Afghanistan border crossing point in Chaman on 28 August 2021. AFP

Dramatic scenes at the Kabul airport of Afghans desperate to leave the country, and horrific bombings there, captured the world’s attention in the weeks after the Taliban took power. The focus is now shifting to a much larger, multi-faceted humanitarian crisis throughout the country. Violence, displacement, drought and the COVID-19 pandemic hit the Afghan population with accelerating force in recent years, and the humanitarian disaster gathered pace in May as the final withdrawal of U.S. and allied forces began. Afghans teemed across borders seeking refuge after the government collapsed on 15 August.

The UN Security Council adopted a resolution on 30 August calling for “enhanced” humanitarian assistance.…  Seguir leyendo »

A member of Taliban (C) stands outside Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, 16 August 2021. REUTERS/Stringer

Just over a week after the Afghan government’s collapse and the Taliban’s return to Kabul, there are more questions than answers about how the Taliban, back in de facto power in Afghanistan after twenty years, will rule the country.

So far, the policy announcements from Taliban spokesmen are crafted to be reassuring, though vague, declaring that there will be no revenge taking, saying girls and women will continue to be allowed education and employment (within unclear parameters), telling journalists that they can continue to report and calling for calm. At the same time, the limited anecdotal reporting of Taliban interactions with the population in areas newly under their control paints a mixed picture.…  Seguir leyendo »

Boys stay on top of the war memorial complex Savur-Mohyla, damaged in the recent conflict, outside the rebel-held city of Donetsk, Ukraine 8 September 2020. REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko

The war in eastern Ukraine began in March 2014. It pits separatists backed by Russia against the Ukrainian government in two industrial regions, Donetsk and Luhansk, which are part of an area known as Donbas. The war was ugliest in its first year, when battles raged for territory and strategic position. Two peace agreements – known as the Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015 – put an end to the major fighting. They also laid out a roadmap for the reabsorption of the separatist-controlled regions into Ukraine, which calls, among other things, for Kyiv to grant these areas limited self-governing status.…  Seguir leyendo »

Il y a un an, Ndayishimiye prenait ses fonctions, à peine quelques jours après le décès inopiné de son prédécesseur, Pierre Nkurunziza. Le nouveau président représente-t-il la continuité ou le changement?

Élu en mai 2020, le président Evariste Ndayishimiye a pris ses fonctions alors que le pays connaissait des troubles profonds. Il a succédé à feu Pierre Nkurunziza, qui au cours de ses quinze ans au pouvoir avait entraîné le Burundi dans une crise prolongée et est décédé peu après l’élection de Ndayishimiye.

Le pays peine encore à se remettre de la tentative réussie de l’ancien président de rester en poste pour un troisième mandat, en 2015.…  Seguir leyendo »

Members of the Brazilian Armed Forces take part in a military exercise as part of the Agata operation, on the Oiapoque River in Oiapoque, Amapa state, Brazil, on the border with French Guiana, on 31 October 2020. NELSON ALMEIDA / AFP

Jair Bolsonaro está en una situación difícil. Asediado por una pandemia cuya gravedad no reconoce y enfrentando rivales políticos cada vez más fuertes, el presidente brasileño parece, sin embargo, tener un aliado con el que puede contar. Bolsonaro, un excapitán del ejército, ha llenado su gobierno de derecha con personal militar, ha otorgado poderes adicionales a las fuerzas armadas y ha hecho todo lo posible por limpiar el nombre de la dictadura militar que gobernó el país por dos décadas hasta 1985. Su retórica invoca valores que son populares en los cuarteles: orden, nacionalismo y autoridad. Pero a medida que aumenta la presión sobre su gobierno, con la cifra de muertos por COVID-19 superando el medio millón y elecciones presidenciales a finales de 2022, el futuro de esta alianza es incierto.…  Seguir leyendo »

UN Secretary-General António Guterres speaks during a joint press conference with EU Commission president after their bilateral meeting at the EU headquarters in Brussels on 16 May 2018. JOHN THYS / AFP

UN Secretary-General António Guterres is in Brussels for a rapid round of meetings with European Union (EU) decision-makers on 23 and 24 June. He will lunch with the European commissioners, speak to the European Parliament and meet the leaders gathered for the summer summit of the European Council (Guterres’ native Portugal currently holds the Council’s rotating presidency). The trip comes at a good moment for the secretary-general, who won a second term on 18 June.

Guterres and his European partners will focus on COVID-19 and climate change, but their agenda also includes discussions of security crises including those in Ethiopia and the Middle East.…  Seguir leyendo »

Watch List 2021 – Spring Update

Every year Crisis Group publishes two additional Watch List updates that complement its annual Watch List for the EU, most recently published in January 2021. These publications identify major crises and conflict situations where the European Union and its member states can generate stronger prospects for peace. The Spring Update of the Watch List 2021 includes entries on Bolivia, Myanmar, Nigeria, Ukraine and Yemen.

Introduction

European leaders hoping that a new U.S. administration and COVID vaccines would bring some respite to tempestuous global affairs might look back disappointed at the past few months. A lot has happened since Crisis Group put out our last EU Watch List in January.…  Seguir leyendo »

Palestinians look on as they inspect their residential building which was damaged in an Israeli air strike, amid a flare-up of Israeli-Palestinian violence, in Gaza City May 12, 2021. REUTERS/Suhaib Salem

How serious is the most recent flare-up in the conflict? 

It is extremely serious, partly because it is taking place on several fronts at once: Israeli police actions against Palestinians protesting home evictions or praying at the Al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem, cross-border fighting between Israel and Palestinian armed groups in Gaza, marches from Jordan on the West Bank border, and violence in Israel’s mixed cities – towns with significant numbers of Jewish and Palestinian citizens. Combined, these confrontations are well on their way to becoming one of the worst spasms in the recent history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The flare-up could get worse still, namely if Israel decides to launch a ground offensive into the Gaza Strip.…  Seguir leyendo »

The president of the National Assembly, Jorge Rodriguez (C-top) swears in the new authorities of the National Electoral Council (CNE), during a special session at the National Assembly, in Caracas. 4 May 2021. Federico PARRA / AFP

El 4 de mayo, la Asamblea Nacional, el parlamento subordinado al ejecutivo, designó un nuevo Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE), en el cual dos de los cinco miembros principales son de la oposición. Éste es quizás el más significativo de una serie de gestos hechos por el gobierno del presidente Nicolás Maduro en las últimas dos semanas. Aunque nada sugiere que Maduro esté listo para hacer concesiones que puedan amenazar su permanencia en el poder, sus acciones recientes sí dan indicios de querer negociar y podrían ofrecen una rara oportunidad para atenuar una crisis que tiene a la economía venezolana de rodillas y provocó la peor emergencia humanitaria de América Latina.…  Seguir leyendo »