Crisis Group (Continuación)

An Ethiopian refugee who fled fighting in the Tigray Region looks on from behind a fence as she waits with others at the Village 8 border reception center in Sudan's eastern Gedaref State, on 20 November 2020. ASHRAF SHAZLY / AFP

MundoÁfrica,

A humanitarian catastrophe may soon unfold in Mekelle, the capital of Ethiopia’s Tigray region. Following the expiry of a 72-hour federal ultimatum demanding the Tigray government either surrender or face attack, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced he had authorised the Ethiopian army to begin an assault on the city. The cost of a clash between two heavily armed forces in a metropolis of about 500,000 inhabitants could be staggering. But it is not too late to avert more civilian deaths, nor to avoid a bloody confrontation that could inflict lasting damage to the country. Following the African Union’s lead, the U.S.,…  Seguir leyendo »

Supporters of President Jair Bolsonaro met on Avenida Paulista to demand the impeachment of the Governor of São Paulo Joao Doria (PSDB) and against the mandatory vaccination of the COVID-19 in São Paulo. Suamy Beydoun / AGIF / via AFP

MundoAmérica

One of the world’s worst outbreaks of COVID-19 has ravaged Brazil, one of Latin America’s most viciously polarised countries. The mishandling of the pandemic has been so severe that in mid-2020 it looked likely to result in major political tumult or social unrest. At that point, two health ministers and one justice minister had departed the administration of the unabashed right-wing populist president, Jair Bolsonaro, who had belittled the coronavirus’ dangers and botched the public health response. As the virus spread almost without impediment across Brazil’s vast territory, Bolsonaro battled with the Supreme Court and clashed with state governors while facing nearly ten impeachment requests in Congress as well as criminal investigations into his sons’ activities.…  Seguir leyendo »

Officers of the Criminal Investigation Unit wearing protective suits to avoid possible contagion with the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, cover the corpse of a member of the Rapid Response Patrol who was shot dead in Tegucigalpa on 18 May 2020. Orlando SIERRA / AFP

MundoAmérica, , , ,

¿Qué hay de nuevo? La pandemia de COVID-19 tuvo un impacto inmediato en el crimen organizado en México y los países del norte de Centroamérica, por la desaceleración del flujo de personas y bienes causada por las medidas de confinamiento. Pero los grupos criminales se adaptaron rápidamente a la nueva normalidad, aprovechándola para reforzar o expandir su control sobre la población y el territorio.

¿Por qué importa? Los grupos criminales de la región, muchos de los cuales actúan en complicidad con actores estatales corruptos, son en gran parte responsables de unas de las tasas de homicidios más altas del mundo y ejercen un poder abrumador en un número cada vez mayor de comunidades.…  Seguir leyendo »

A service member of the Russian peacekeeping troops walks near a tank near the border with Armenia, following the signing of a deal to end the military conflict in the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, 10 November 2020.

MundoCáucaso, , ,

After six weeks of bloody armed conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, Russia has brokered a full ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan, signed by the presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia and Armenia’s prime minister. In contrast to three prior failed humanitarian ceasefires successively negotiated with the aid of Russia, France and the United States, this one appears to be holding. Its success reflects battlefield realities: Azerbaijan was winning militarily and Armenia faced a crushing defeat. But humiliation cannot be a strong basis for sustained peace. The parties and foreign stakeholders must ensure that the ceasefire holds; they also should take steps to ensure that the new regional order has benefits for all involved.…  Seguir leyendo »

Members of the Tigray region special police force parade during celebrations marking the 45th anniversary of the launching of the "Armed Struggle of the Peoples of Tigray", on 19 February 2020, in Mekelle. MICHAEL TEWELDE / AFP.

MundoÁfrica,

Unless urgently halted, the ongoing armed confrontation between Ethiopia’s federal forces and those commanded by the northern Tigray region’s leadership will be devastating not just for the country but for the entire Horn of Africa. In a televised address on 4 November, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said he had ordered the military to take action against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the ruling party in the country’s northernmost region, in retaliation for what he described as a TPLF attack on a federal military base earlier that day. His office also announced a six-month state of emergency in Tigray. A war that many Ethiopians feared was possible but hoped would never happen appears to be under way.…  Seguir leyendo »

Employees of the Ministry of Emergency Situations work near destroyed houses in Ganja, Azerbaijan on 11 October 2020. They were hit by shelling after fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces began in and around Nagorno-Karabakh on 27 September. Mikhail Voskresenskiy / Sputnik via AFP.

MundoCáucaso, , , ,

Two weeks into a renewed war between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces over the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and its environs, fighting appears poised to escalate. On 10 October, a Russian-brokered humanitarian ceasefire intended to enable combatants to retrieve the bodies of the dead and exchange prisoners appeared to fall apart as its ink was drying. Both sides have since struck towns and villages, with enormous damage to lives and livelihoods. While it may take time for the parties to return to peace talks, they and international actors must act to stem the mounting human toll. Whatever an eventual settlement entails, it will be closer to hand and more sustainable if the parties stop killing civilians and adding fresh grievances to an already intractable conflict.…  Seguir leyendo »

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (L) shakes hands with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at Irqah Palace in the capital Riyadh on 20 February 2020. ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / POOL / AFP

MundoOriente Próximo

The Washington Post reported on 25 September that U.S. officials are considering a potentially consequential new step in Washington’s approach to Yemen: either designating the Huthis – the term used by most Yemenis to describe the rebel group that controls the capital Sanaa and much of north-western Yemen and calls itself Ansar Allah – as a foreign terrorist organisation or naming particular Huthi leaders as specially designated global terrorists. When Washington designates a group as a foreign terrorist organisation, it makes material support for that group a crime, freezes its assets and bars its members from entering the U.S. The consequences of an individual designation are similar but slightly less onerous.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAmérica,

¿Qué hay de nuevo? Los líderes sociales en Colombia enfrentan una creciente ola de ataques en su lucha por los derechos de las comunidades afectadas por el conflicto. La violencia dirigida contra estos activistas ha aumentado a pesar de los compromisos establecidos en el acuerdo de paz de 2016 para proteger a la sociedad civil. El COVID-19 ha exacerbado la inseguridad para estos líderes ya que grupos armados han explotado las restricciones a la movilidad para consolidar su control.

¿Por qué importa? Los líderes sociales se encuentran entre los defensores más fervientes del acuerdo de paz y de las víctimas del conflicto.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoCáucaso, , ,

After a bitter three-decades-long standoff marked by sporadic violence and deadlocked negotiations, Azerbaijan and Armenia have returned to war over the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Clashes on the front lines followed by an Azerbaijani dawn offensive on September 27 have spilled into days of fighting that have left dozens of soldiers and civilians dead on both sides. Despite international calls for restraint, the mood among both Armenians and Azerbaijanis is bellicose. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has made his own hawkish statements in support of Baku. Absent urgent international action, fighting looks set to escalate further, at terrible cost.

Russia, potentially with European support, probably stands the best chance of brokering a ceasefire.…  Seguir leyendo »

A crowd of people cheer Malian army soldiers at the Independence Square after a mutiny, in Bamako, Mali August 18, 2020. Picture taken August 18, 2020. REUTERS/Moussa Kalapo

MundoÁfrica,

A la faveur d’un coup d’Etat ayant vu l’arrestation du président malien Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta et de son Premier ministre Boubou Cissé, les militaires ont pris le pouvoir au Mali le 18 août 2020. Ce coup est la dernière expression en date d’une crise politique majeure, marquée depuis début juin par de nombreuses manifestations qui réclament la démission du président Keïta. Les partenaires régionaux et internationaux de Bamako demandent, en toute légitimité, que l’ordre constitutionnel soit restauré. Ils doivent maintenir la pression sur les militaires afin que ceux-ci tiennent leur engagement de restituer le pouvoir aux civils dans les plus brefs délais.…  Seguir leyendo »

People take part in a protest against the presidential election results demanding the resignation of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and the release of political prisoners, in Minsk, Belarus on 16 August 2020. REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko

Europa,

As protests and strikes in Belarus enter their second week, Moscow, Brussels and many other European capitals have struggled to respond. The politics that brought Belarusians to the streets of their villages, towns and cities are local: they are angry that their president of 26 years has tried to steal yet another election. But if the crisis in Belarus is at its core anything but an East-West standoff, it is happening at a time when hasty responses by either Russia or Western states could turn it into just that. Because such a showdown would serve no one’s interests, all stakeholders should take care to consult with each other and coordinate their policies, even as they do what they can to help Belarus and Belarusians.…  Seguir leyendo »

A view of the port the day after a massive explosion at the port on August 5, 2020 in Beirut, Lebanon. Houssam Hariri / NurPhoto via AFP

MundoOriente Próximo,

From all we know, the blast that destroyed much of the port in the Lebanese capital Beirut in the early evening of 4 August was an accident – but if so, it was an accident only in name. Storing, against repeated warnings, more than 2,750 tons of highly explosive ammonium nitrate for nearly seven years under unsuitable conditions near a densely populated area amounted to asking for a catastrophe to happen. Blatant, perhaps criminal, negligence and bureaucratic ineptitude were the immediate causes of the explosion that killed over 150, injured more than 5,000, displaced up to 300,000 and caused an estimated $2 billion in damage to the city – and counting.…  Seguir leyendo »

Indigenous people stage a protest against the postponement of presidential elections amid the Coronavirus outbreak, in El Alto, Bolivia on July 28, 2020. Marcelo Perez Del Carpio / Anadolu Agency via AFP

MundoAmérica,

¿Qué hay de nuevo? Bolivia celebrará elecciones presidenciales el 18 de octubre. Sumado al desafío de una jornada electoral en medio de la pandemia del COVID-19, el legado de las polémicas elecciones del 2019, que desencadenaron violentos disturbios y llevó al expresidente Evo Morales a abandonar el país, conduce a que ambas partes tengan una fuerte desconfianza del sistema electoral.

¿Por qué importa? A finales del 2019, un acuerdo para celebrar nuevas elecciones bajo una autoridad electoral reformada calmó los disturbios. Aun así, las elecciones del 2019 siguen siendo controversiales, al igual que el papel de los observadores de la Organización de los Estados Americanos, cuyas declaraciones determinaron la percepción de que hubo fraude.…  Seguir leyendo »

Figura 3: Historia de tuits por muestras de cuentas anti- y pro-Bukele Fuente: Análisis de Crisis Group de datos de Twitter.

MundoAmérica

El salvadoreño Nayib Bukele, ganó la presidencia en el 2019 tras prometer reducir las entonces astronómicas tasas de homicidios del país y ponerle freno a la corrupción. En efecto, las tasas de homicidios han caído significativamente desde su elección. Pero las políticas de Bukele han resultado controversiales. Los críticos dicen que las acciones del presidente, como recluir a pandilleros en celdas sin luz del día y forzar al Parlamento y a las altas cortes, vulneran los derechos humanos y erosionan la democracia. Al mismo tiempo, estas políticas lo han hecho más popular que nunca, y muchos salvadoreños atribuyen la disminución de los homicidios a su estilo eficiente y al punto.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAmérica,

In a ruling that was expected as much as it was feared, Venezuela’s government-controlled Supreme Court on 12 June dashed any slender hope that this year’s legislative elections, due in December, might be run by a balanced electoral authority and widely regarded as valid. Instead, declaring that the National Assembly – the country’s parliament – had once again failed to agree on the membership of the National Electoral Council’s (CNE) five-person board, the Court appointed its own, weighted in the government’s favour. The ruling’s immediate aftermath marked yet another low point for Venezuela’s battered democracy. While the opposition lambasted the decision as evidence that President Nicolás Maduro was perpetuating his grip on the electoral system and preparing to run another rigged poll, the Court proceeded to hand control of two (and potentially three) leading opposition parties to minority factions willing to participate in the elections.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iran's newly elected legislatures convened to elect the presidium and new parliament speaker in Tehran, Iran on 28 May 2020. Tasnim News Agency/Erfan Kouchari

MundoAmérica

Iran inaugurated a conservative-dominated parliament (Majles) on 27 May, following an election that saw a historically low participation rate. Against the backdrop of recurrent domestic unrest, economic hardship, the COVID-19 pandemic and elevated tensions with the U.S., what happens in the new legislature could prove a bellwether for the 2021 presidential election and the direction of Iran’s domestic and foreign policy.

Shaping the 11th Majles

Three consecutive national elections – the presidential race that brought Hassan Rouhani into office in 2013, the 2016 parliamentary vote and Rouhani’s re-election in 2017 – yielded successive victories for the alliance of political camps that in Iran’s fluid factional landscape are labelled the reformist and pragmatist blocs.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAmérica  

Hasta el momento, Venezuela parece haberse salvado de lo peor de la pandemia de COVID-19, según informes del gobierno de mediados de mayo en los que reportan solo unos cientos de casos y un puñado de muertes. Pero la crisis económica mundial provocada por el coronavirus, sumada a la emergencia humanitaria existente y al impacto de las sanciones de los EE. UU., amenaza con producir una catástrofe, incluso si el precario sistema de salud del país logra palear la pandemia. El petróleo es el pilar de la economía venezolana y su precio ha caído por debajo del costo promedio de producción.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoÁfrica  

À l’approche de l’élection présidentielle prévue en octobre, les tensions en Côte d’Ivoire se matérialisent le long de lignes de fracture politiques et ethniques qui perdurent depuis de nombreuses années.

Même si le président Alassane Ouattara a contribué à désamorcer une crise potentielle lorsqu’il s’est officiellement retiré de la course à la présidence en mars, évitant ainsi un différend majeur sur la constitutionnalité de sa candidature pour un troisième mandat, les responsables politiques de l’opposition accusent maintenant son gouvernement de les empêcher de se mesurer au nouveau candidat du parti au pouvoir, le Premier ministre Amadou Gon Coulibaly. Ils se plaignent d’un climat de harcèlement et d’intimidation et du fait que les autorités œuvrent par l’intermédiaire des tribunaux à les mettre, eux et leurs partisans, derrière les barreaux pour des motifs fallacieux.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoÁfrica  

As a presidential election scheduled for October draws closer, tensions in Côte d’Ivoire are building along longstanding political and ethnic fault lines.

Although President Alassane Ouattara helped defuse a potential crisis when he formally withdrew from the presidential race in March, avoiding a major dispute over the constitutionality of his running for a third term, opposition politicians now accuse his government of hampering them from competing against the new ruling-party candidate, Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly. They complain of a climate of harassment and intimidation, and that the authorities are working through the courts to put them and their supporters behind bars on spurious grounds.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAmérica  

Venezuela has so far been spared the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, with the government reporting, by mid-May, only a few hundred cases and a handful of deaths. But the global economic crisis sparked by the coronavirus, on top of the existing humanitarian emergency and the impact of U.S. sanctions, threatens to produce a catastrophe even if the country’s threadbare health service is not overwhelmed by the disease itself. Oil is Venezuela’s fiscal mainstay, and its price has fallen below the average costs of production. An economy that has already shrunk by over 60 per cent since 2013 is now reeling from the effects of a nationwide quarantine and a critical shortage of fuel.…  Seguir leyendo »