Daniel Treisman

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Europa,

People used to ask Alexey Navalny why, knowing the risks, he chose to go back to Russia in 2021 after he was poisoned with a rare nerve agent originally developed in the Soviet Union and almost died. Rather than return to face almost certain imprisonment, he could have stayed abroad to lead the resistance to Putin from the West.

His answer was simple: “Russia is my country, Moscow is my city, and I miss them”. His death in an Arctic penal colony prison, announced by the Russian prison service on Friday and confirmed by Navalny’s spokesperson on Saturday, shows the sordid depths to which Putin has dragged that country.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian servicemen inspect part of the crashed private jet near the village of Kuzhenkino, Tver region, Russia, on Thursday, August 24. Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP

Europa, ,

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin — who the Russian aviation agency confirmed was a passenger on board a plane that crashed on Wednesday evening — seemed to be living on borrowed time.

Ever since June, when the warlord led his Wagner mercenaries in an uprising against his country’s military commanders, the Kremlin’s soft response had bewildered longtime Russia watchers.

Within the span of a few hours, Russian President Vladimir Putin switched from accusing Prigozhin of “treason”, and labeling his mutiny “a stab in the back of our troops and the people”, to allowing Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko to promise Prigozhin amnesty and a base for his fighters.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, June 2022. Mikhail Metzel / Sputnik/ Reuters

Europa, , ,

Can Russian President Vladimir Putin lose the war in Ukraine and retain power? As Ukraine’s driving counteroffensive erodes Russia’s position on the battlefield, that question is getting increasing attention. Discussion has focused on the possibility of a coup, whether an armed insurrection by disgruntled Russian generals or a mutiny by Kremlin insiders. Although not impossible, neither of these is currently very likely. In fact, a different danger is more plausible: a comprehensive meltdown of the regime, as multiple challenges overwhelm its capacity to react and dysfunction drains confidence in Putin’s leadership.

NO COUP FOR YOU

Losing a war is rarely a smart career move.…  Seguir leyendo »

Europa

Before he started massing troops, few expected Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine, and even once he did, few expected him to behave the way he has. In a shocking act of aggression, the Russian leader sent troops to bomb cities such as Kharkiv and Mariupol and to attack schools, hospitals, and apartment buildings throughout the country, killing hundreds—if not thousands—of civilians. His extreme demands—calling for Ukraine to disarm, formally recognize the loss of Crimea, give up large swaths of territory in the eastern part of the country, and renounce any intention to join NATO—have stunned the world, as has his repeated nuclear saber rattling.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian President Vladimir Putin signs documents, including a decree recognizing two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent, at the Kremlin on Feb. 21. (Alexey Nikolsky/AFP/Getty Images)

Europa,

President Vladimir Putin’s emotional speech on Monday justifying Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was eye-opening in many ways. Among other things, it cast new light on the Russian president’s complicated and evolving relationship with the Soviet past.

Even before this week’s attack, Putin’s use of troops abroad — in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine — has been taken by some as evidence of a desire to rebuild the Soviet Union. U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and Sens. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) and Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), among others, have suggested this interpretation. So did President Biden in his Thursday comments announcing further sanctions.

And Putin’s own words have at times supported this interpretation — in 2005, for instance, he called the collapse of the USSR “a major geopolitical disaster of the [20th] century.”…  Seguir leyendo »

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The time of the long tables is apparently over. On Monday, Vladimir Putin moved on from diplomacy to direct action.

In a day overflowing with adrenalin, Russia's president threw Europe's security and his own political future into the balance with a gamble larger than any he has yet risked in his 22 years in power.

With two flourishes of a pen, he recognized the independence of the breakaway "people's republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk, located in Ukraine's east, and ordered Russian "peace keeping" troops into the regions, where earlier he had claimed without evidence that a "genocide" was occurring.
State TV also broadcast Putin "consulting" in the Security Council with his top subordinates, all of whom urged him to recognize the republics.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAméricaEuropa, ,

Between Washington and Moscow, the words are flying like missiles.

On Wednesday, in an interview with ABC News, President Biden agreed with his host, George Stephanopoulos, that Russian President Vladimir Putin was a "killer." He was speaking after the Director of National Intelligence released a report accusing Russia's intelligence services of interfering in the 2020 US presidential election in an attempt to sow divisions and get President Trump reelected. "He will pay a price," Biden said of Putin.

The Kremlin quickly struck back, recalling its ambassador from Washington for consultations in a rare show of diplomatic pique. On Russian TV on Thursday, Putin responded with a touch of verbal judo, suggesting that Biden had really been describing himself: "We always see our own qualities in another person and think that they are like us."…  Seguir leyendo »

Europa

Vladimir Putin has done it again. Facing a hard term limit in 2024 and falling approval ratings as the economy stagnates, Russia's president has taken an unexpected gamble to increase his options by reshaping the political system.

Astonishing observers, Putin proposed on Wednesday the most dramatic changes to Russia's constitution since 1993.

Under his plan -- which he promised to submit to a nationwide vote -- the right to choose the prime minister and his government would pass from the president to the parliament. At present, the president nominates the prime minister. The lower house of parliament, the State Duma, must approve the candidate by a majority vote, but if it rejects the president's nominees three times in a row, he can dissolve parliament and call new elections.…  Seguir leyendo »

Is democracy really in danger? The picture is not as dire as you think

ReflexionesDemocracia

Many observers believe democracy is in danger — both globally and in the United States.

Worldwide, free government is said to be in “recession,” “decaying,” “in retreat” or “beleaguered.” Former secretary of state Madeleine Albright considers fascism “a more serious threat now than at any time since the end of World War II.”

Closer to home, commentator Andrew Sullivan sees the U.S. system turning into “the kind of authoritarian state that America was actually founded to overthrow.”

How serious are the challenges to democracy today? One way to assess this is to examine historical experience, using the best global data available.…  Seguir leyendo »

Europa

A generation after the Cold War ended, Russian fighter jets are again probing NATO’s defenses in the skies around Norway and Portugal. Russia has dismembered one of its neighbors, annexing part of its territory. A McCarthyite frenzy has gripped the country’s elite as investigators target an imaginary fifth column of national traitors.

The vehemence of Russia’s recent turn against the West has shocked observers and prompted a scramble for explanations. Marvin Kalb, a veteran foreign correspondent and Russia hand, believes the key to the current crisis lies in the region’s history, specifically the interwoven pasts of the countries now called Russia and Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaInternacionalOTAN, ,

As Western leaders gather in Newport, Wales, for this week's NATO summit, the Ukrainian army is taking a pounding from Russia-supported rebel fighters in the country's east and south. The central question now confronting President Barack Obama and colleagues is whether to supply Kiev with heavy arms.

So far, Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the two key decision makers, have been reluctant. But with Ukrainian forces reeling before what many are calling an overt Russian invasion, pressure is growing on them to reconsider.

Already NATO has announced plans to strengthen the defense of its frontline members in the Baltics and Eastern Europe.…  Seguir leyendo »

Europa, , , , ,

The tragic fate of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, believed shot down by a missile in eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 on board, has cast a new light on the series of gambles Russian President Vladimir Putin embarked on in late February.

At that time, Putin sent military intelligence troops in unmarked uniforms to take control of the southern Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea. Three weeks later, Russia annexed the region.

As Russian-speaking Ukrainians farther north in Donetsk and Luhansk stormed administrative buildings, demanding independence from Kiev, Russian intelligence officers started slipping across the border to help organize the militias. In subsequent months, Moscow supplied the separatist guerrillas with artillery, tanks and anti-aircraft weapons.…  Seguir leyendo »

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President Putin's endgame in Crimea is now clear -- and the West has only a few days to act.

On Thursday, the Crimean parliament voted 78-0 to hold a referendum on March 16. The main question will ask whether voters want the region to secede from Ukraine and become part of Russia. Previously, a referendum had been scheduled for March 30 on the less politically charged question of whether Crimea should have greater autonomy within Ukraine.

If, as expected, a majority endorses secession, the story will change overnight from one about Russia's unprovoked military invasion to one about a minority's right to self-determination.…  Seguir leyendo »

Europa

As Russian President Vladimir Putin opens the Winter Olympics in Sochi on February 7, there will be relief hidden behind his characteristically guarded smile. For Putin, the past two years have witnessed a remarkable recovery.

Two years ago, Putin seemed to be on the ropes. Tens of thousands of Muscovites were flooding central squares to protest a parliamentary election they said had been tarnished by massive fraud. His approval ratings were in free fall, having dropped 15 points since December 2010, according to polls from Moscow's Levada Center.

Internationally, Putin was also on the defensive. He appeared to have isolated himself by backing the wrong horse in Syria's civil war.…  Seguir leyendo »