Dara Massicot

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A Ukrainian soldier near the town of Kreminna, Ukraine March 2024. Inna Varenytsia / Reuters

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Two years after Russia’s invasion, Ukraine and its Western supporters are at a critical decision point and face a fundamental question: How can further Russian advances on the battlefield be stopped, and then reversed? After capturing the ruined city of Avdiivka, Russian forces are moving forward fitfully in other areas along the front. Russian advantages in manpower, materiel, and defense production have grown in the past year, whereas U.S. ammunition deliveries have been throttled and are at risk of being curtailed almost entirely because of an impasse over funding in the U.S. Congress. Supplies of critical munitions for frontline Ukrainian units are dwindling and soldiers are being forced to ration.…  Seguir leyendo »

Wagner troops preparing to return to their base in Rostov-on-Don in June. Roman Romokhov/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

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In the wake of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed rebellion, it seems as if Russia’s leaders are living in an alternate reality.

The sequence of events speaks for itself. Russian troops waved through Wagner columns on their way to Moscow and curious civilians greeted them in the street with snacks; President Vladimir Putin recast this sight as a unified Russian society. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu hid out of sight as his subordinates chatted with Mr. Prigozhin; he emerged days later to praise officers for their loyalty. One of Russia’s most experienced generals, Sergei Surovikin, was filmed in a nondescript room requesting that Wagner stand down; he has not been seen since, while Russia’s incompetent military leadership team remains in place.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Much attention in recent months has focused on Russia’s faltering military offensive and staggering casualties in Ukraine. But there are other problems, largely unnoticed outside Russia, lurking for the country’s armed forces and society more broadly. Russia’s wartime military-personnel policies, instituted last September, temporarily prohibit active-duty and mobilised soldiers from leaving service. Russia faces a crisis in military retention and a larger social crisis of veteran mental-health disorders when these restrictions are lifted. Just as the terms “Afghan Syndrome” and “Chechen Syndrome” emerged to describe the plight of Russian veterans who lacked support and struggled to adapt to civilian life after those conflicts, it is only a matter of time before “Ukraine Syndrome” grips Russia, as thousands of veterans suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) or other conditions return home.…  Seguir leyendo »

A destroyed Russian tank near the front line in Oskil, Ukraine. Nicole Tung for The New York Times

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On the eve of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, its leaders expected a quick success. The Russian military, modernized in the past decade and emboldened by campaigns in Ukraine and Syria, was confident using force abroad. As Russia moved nearly 200,000 troops, missile launchers and combat aviation into place early last year, many feared the worst.

But Russian victory never came. Instead, the Russian military has sustained staggering losses: Senior U.S. officials place Russian casualties at well over 100,000. The army has lost thousands of pieces of armored equipment and several squadrons of fighter jets and helicopters, and expended a large proportion of its precision strike munitions and artillery shells.…  Seguir leyendo »

What Russia Got Wrong

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Three months before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, CIA Director William Burns and U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan met in Moscow with Nikolai Patrushev, an ultra-hawkish adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Burns and Sullivan informed Patrushev that they knew of Russia’s invasion plans and that the West would respond with severe consequences if Russia proceeded. According to Burns, Patrushev said nothing about the invasion. Instead, he looked them in the eye, conveying what Burns took as a message: the Russian military could achieve what it wanted.

Once home, the two Americans informed U.S. President Joe Biden that Moscow had made up its mind.…  Seguir leyendo »

Putin’s Desperate Measures Won’t Get Him What He Wants

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Against a turning tide, Vladimir Putin is resorting to desperate measures.

First, there was the mobilization order of 300,000 Russian citizens. Then came the illegal annexation of four Ukrainian regions and the appointment of a new commander, Gen. Sergei Surovikin, to lead the war effort. Last week, in retaliation for an attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge, Russia’s main route to Crimea, the Kremlin launched over 100 long-range missiles into Ukraine, killing more than three dozen civilians and striking 30 percent of Ukrainian energy facilities.

But if Mr. Putin hoped to shift the war’s battlefield dynamics, he is likely to be disappointed.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, July 2022. Alexander Ermochenko

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When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, the Kremlin inadvertently put its military forces in an unsustainable position, ordering them to take on more operations than they could bear. It had nearly all its soldiers surge simultaneously and rapidly into Ukraine to fight along multiple fronts. It did so without taking necessary protective measures, such as clearing routes of explosives. It had its forces advance at an unsustainable pace. As a result, Russian troops were vulnerable to ambushes, counterattacks, and severe logistical problems that cost the military enormous numbers of soldiers and equipment.

That initial error was caused by the Kremlin’s prewar delusions.…  Seguir leyendo »

A pro-Russian soldier in Mariupol, Ukraine, May 2022. Alexander Ermochenko / Reuters

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Six days before the invasion of Ukraine, a small group of Russian soldiers huddled together in their tents in Belarus. One of them had covertly acquired a smartphone—barred by the military—and together, the group logged on to western news sites. There, they read a story that shocked them: according to Western intelligence reports, Russia was about to invade its neighbor.

One of the soldiers called his mother in shock about what he had read. She told him it was only western propaganda, and that there would be no war. She was wrong. Five days later, on the eve of the invasion, the soldiers’ commanders revealed they would invade Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »