France is only a few months from a much anticipated presidential election. The incumbent president, François Hollande of the Socialist Party, has dismal approval ratings and declined to run. The party is struggling even without him.
Drawing on a newly published forecasting model in the latest issue of Science, we can quantify the Socialist Party’s chances of winning, and those chances aren’t good. Our model gives the Socialists a 21 percent probability of winning the first round, and predicts they will be defeated by a margin of about 12 points. The door, then, is clearly open for other parties, including the far-right Front National.… Seguir leyendo »