Why Putin’s gamble does not have to be lose-lose
Despite Russia’s deployment of a potential invasion force around Ukraine’s borders, its foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has claimed Russia does not intend to invade – and it is certain the Kremlin would prefer a bloodless victory.
Although defeating Ukraine would be a short-term win, the long-term damage to Russia and the burden of subjugating the Ukrainians again would be huge. Ultimately – albeit not necessarily in Putin’s lifetime – the Ukrainians would break out again and Russia would definitively have lost.
But the cost to Russia is not just in Ukraine and in the further sanctions certain to be imposed in the event of an invasion.… Seguir leyendo »