There is always a time when the intentions of an individual or that of a nation shift from the hidden to uncloaked. That is the point where the wise prepare for action. We have for over a decade warned of the rise of China and that its challenge to the world would ultimately not be a peaceful one, as so vehemently claimed by President Xi. Consequently, we have been following the construction of islands in the Spratly chain, based on the partially submerged reefs that lay below the high tide mark, all of which under UNCLOS (The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea) were considered not to be sovereign territory.… Seguir leyendo »
Nota: Este archivo abarca los artículos publicados por el autor desde el 1 de abril de 2009. Para fechas anteriores realice una búsqueda entrecomillando su nombre.
At a time when the rise of China is about to enter a new phase with an overt locking of horns with America, it seems appropriate to examine the polarisation process that China has been undergoing and its implications for nations onto whom it is focused. Before we do that, it is important to remind ourselves of how the polarisation process operates.
In Breaking the Code of History we have explained that in physics, the term ‘polarisation’ denotes the condition by which the oscillation of certain types of wave can be oriented on the same plane. Individuals, cultures and empires can be similarly polarised: that is, they can define their values unanimously and cohesively, bonding as a single society and focusing their energies against a perceived threat from a competing system.… Seguir leyendo »
We have for quite a while now been predicting a sharp period of deflation from 2015 to as late as 2018. This prediction has been based on the Kondratieff cycles’ second phase, which corrects the first impulsive stage of commodity inflation. We maintain our view, despite the assurances of various central banks, that this is only a short-term dip. Indeed, the ongoing decline in global commodity prices suggests that these deflationary dynamics will accelerate in the next 12 to 18 months.
One of the interesting questions about the Kondratieff cycle is that its price history has–until the past decade–been based on the cycle of the Super Western Christian Empires as these were the dominant industrial powers across the globe during the past two centuries.… Seguir leyendo »
The five stages of Empire model for a democracy recognise that there are two fundamental drivers to the political forces within a society. On the one hand, the forces of wealth creation for the nation, and on the other, the forces of wealth distribution to the people. These two forces interact with each other differently according to their location on the cycle. On the way up during expansion there is a greater propensity to wealth creation (and expansion), and on the way down to wealth distribution (and inward looking policies). At various times along the curve there are key points that define not just the election, but as well the political landscape for decades ahead.… Seguir leyendo »
To better understand the current situation in the Middle East, one has to understand the 1500 years since the appearance of Islam and its interaction with the older Christian Religion.
Both Islam and Christianity are what Breaking The code of History (BTCH) defines as inclusive religions, i.e. beliefs that one can join by choice, rather than exclusive religions that are only conferred by birth right. As such, historically, they were both able to spread their message and expand their influence across the Mediterranean, independent of demographic expansion, by displacing other religions.
They became the foundations of two great empire cycles that have risen and fallen with mutual exclusivity.… Seguir leyendo »