Dennis B. Ross

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Cómo capitalizar el debilitamiento de Hamas y Hezbollah

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Hace un año, Oriente Medio parecía preparado para un gran avance: la normalización de las relaciones diplomáticas entre Arabia Saudita e Israel. En términos más generales, la administración del presidente norteamericano, Joe Biden, pregonaba una desescalada de las tensiones en la región. Estados Unidos hasta parecía haber llegado a algún acuerdo informal con Irán, al no implementar sanciones petroleras y al permitirle recibir varios miles de millones de dólares de Irak por gas natural y electricidad. A cambio, Irán iba a diluir parte del uranio que había enriquecido al 60% (cerca del grado de armas nucleares) y prohibirles a sus apoderados chiitas disparar contra fuerzas estadounidenses en Irak y Siria.…  Seguir leyendo »

Members of the Iranian Basij forces stage a mock arrest of a man dressed like Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during an anti-Israel rally in Tehran on Oct. 13, 2023. AFP via Getty Images

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Iran makes no secret of its commitment to seek Israel’s destruction. Its strategy is to keep it under constant pressure and consume it in ongoing conflicts on its borders. While that is plain to see, Israel’s current approach seems, ironically, to be playing into Iran’s hands.

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has long assumed that Israelis will leave the country if they feel constantly under pressure from military threats. What some refer to as a “ring of fire” around Israel is driven by this assumption.

It doesn’t matter so much whether Khamenei and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah are wrong—after all, Israelis, even with their all disagreements, have demonstrated unmistakably that they will fight for their country and remain in it.…  Seguir leyendo »

Israeli soldiers on a tank at an undisclosed location near the border fence with the Gaza Strip, in southern Israel on May 21. (Abir Sultan/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

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For Israelis, it’s still Oct. 7. It is not just the shock and the horror of that day. The hostages are a daily reminder of a continuing trauma. President Biden has focused on a deal that gets the hostages released and sets in motion a process that leads to the end of the war in Gaza. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the war can only end with Hamas’s military destroyed, it no longer being in control of Gaza and with the hostages returned.

The two share the same basic objective, but neither has offered a clear enough explanation of when and how the war can end.…  Seguir leyendo »

Israeli soldiers patrolling Gazan-Israeli border, April 2024. Amir Cohen / Reuters

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Until last month, the war between Iran and Israel was largely fought in the shadows. The Iranians decided to take it out of the shadows, openly attacking Israeli territory directly, from Iranian soil, for the first time in the Islamic Republic’s history. Some observers have argued that Iran’s April 13 drone and missile assault on Israel was a symbolic gesture. Yet given the quantity of drones and missiles fired at Israel and their payloads, Iran clearly meant to inflict serious damage.

Israel’s defenses were nearly flawless, but it did not repel Iran’s attack entirely on its own. Just as Iran’s assault was unprecedented, so was the direct military intervention of the United States and a number of its allies, including some Arab states.…  Seguir leyendo »

Palestinians gathering near an airstrike crater in Rafah, Gaza, February 2024. Mohammed Salem / Reuters

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In February, Israeli military intelligence reportedly informed the country’s leaders that Hamas will survive as a terrorist group after the war. Despite this assessment, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to declare that there will be “total victory” over Hamas, and that it will take “months, not years” to achieve.

In part, this is because October 7 changed Israel, inflicting trauma and hardening Israelis’ belief that they cannot live with Hamas in control of the Gaza Strip. Israel’s air and ground campaign into Gaza seemed designed to root Hamas out—a daunting task given its extensive labyrinth of tunnels and its cynical use of the entire population of the strip as its shield.…  Seguir leyendo »

The aftermath of an Israeli strike on Gaza City on Oct. 26. Omar El-Qattaa/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

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For 35 years, I’ve devoted my professional life to U.S. peacemaking policy and conflict resolution and planning — whether in the former Soviet Union, a reunified Germany or postwar Iraq. But nothing has preoccupied me like finding a peaceful and lasting solution between Israel and the Palestinians.

In the past, I might have favored a cease-fire with Hamas during a conflict with Israel. But today it is clear to me that peace is not going to be possible now or in the future as long as Hamas remains intact and in control of Gaza. Hamas’s power and ability to threaten Israel — and subject Gazan civilians to ever more rounds of violence — must end.…  Seguir leyendo »

Hamas fighters, Gaza, July 2023. Ibraheem Abu Mustafa / Reuters

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In launching its unprovoked, heinous attack on Israelis on October 7, Hamas created the bloodiest day that Israel has seen in more than five decades. The vast majority of the more than 900 killed were civilians—gunned down in their homes or burned to death as their houses were set on fire. Scores of hostages were taken, including grandmothers and mothers with young children, in an act of deliberate terror and brutality. This unprecedented assault has left Israel in a state of shock but also with the resolve to end Hamas’s ability to threaten Israel again, and it will inevitably produce an extraordinary response.…  Seguir leyendo »

As President Bill Clinton looks on, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, left, shakes hands with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat at the White House signing of a peace accord in September 1993. (Ron Edmonds/AP)

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“Oslo” has become a dirty word for its critics.

Things looked very different 30 years ago on Sept. 13, 1993, on the White House lawn. The iconic handshake between historic enemies Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat, with President Bill Clinton spreading his arms to draw them together, was an extraordinary moment of hope.

The Declaration of Principles signed that day was the foundation of the Oslo agreements, named after the secret talks conducted in Norway between the Rabin government and the Palestine Liberation Organization. The declaration represented a psychological breakthrough: two national movements competing for the same territory recognized one another after years of denial.…  Seguir leyendo »

A new Iran nuclear deal might be on the horizon

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Is the Biden administration’s strategy on Iran’s nuclear ambitions drifting dangerously from prevention to containment?

Reports are cropping up that the administration and the Iranians are discussing new agreements that would, in theory, seek to limit the Tehran’s nuclear program. While denying any deals are imminent, a senior Biden administration official acknowledged that there have been indirect talks with the Iranian government in Oman.

The Iranians are being less coy. Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, formerly the head of the Foreign Policy and National Security Committee in the Iranian parliament, claims that unwritten understandings have already been reached. The Biden administration “will close its eyes to some of Iran’s energy deals, and [allow] the release of some of Iran’s frozen funds in return for Iran refraining from expanding its nuclear program more than the current level”, he said.…  Seguir leyendo »

Iranian Basij paramilitary forces take part in a rally marking al-Quds (Jerusalem) Day near a Shahab-3 missile (background) on a street in Tehran, on Apr. 29. AFP via Getty Images

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A decade ago, then-Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak would regularly come to Washington and hold high-level meetings with senior officials in the Obama administration. Iran’s nuclear program was the central focus of those meetings, and I recall his frequent admonition: “You say there is time to deal with it, but I fear we will be told this until we are told, ‘it is too late and there is nothing to be done but live with it.’” I was one of those in the U.S. government reassuring him that we would not let this happen.

However, with Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), now saying the Iranian nuclear program “is galloping ahead”, I fear that Barak’s words may have been prophetic.…  Seguir leyendo »

The flags, from left to right, of Bahrain, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the United States fly along a road in the resort city of Netanya, in central Israel, on Sept. 13. (Jack Guez/AFP/Getty Images)

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At the White House on Tuesday, Israel will formalize peace with the United Arab Emirates and sign a declaration of peace with Bahrain. For some, this event symbolizes the advent of a new day in the region. Others bemoan it for rewarding the Israelis and doing little to end the occupation of the Palestinians.

The latter tend to ignore that at least in the UAE’s case, its decision stopped Israel’s unilateral annexation of the territories allotted to it by the Trump peace plan. As such, they overlook that it very clearly applied the concept of linkage in any Arab moves toward Israel: for partial or full normalization by Arab states, Israel will need to take positive — or in the UAE’s case, avoid negative — steps toward the Palestinians.…  Seguir leyendo »

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We don’t hear many good news stories out of the Middle East, particularly recently, in the midst of the despair over Beirut, regional conflicts and the ravages of covid-19. But on Thursday there was a hopeful development: President Trump announced a historic peace agreement that will normalize relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel.

Now what had been taking place below the table will be put on top of it. Security cooperation can be acknowledged in public and won’t have to exist in the shadows. Israeli companies will be able to operate openly in the UAE, and Israelis will be able to fly directly to the Emirates using their Israeli passports.…  Seguir leyendo »

USS Porter launching a missile strike. Credit Ford Williams/European Pressphoto Agency

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President Trump’s decision to launch nearly 60 Tomahawk cruise missiles against Al Shayrat air base, from which the Syrian air force flew to drop chemical weapons on the town of Khan Sheikhoun earlier this week, was swift and purposeful. No doubt, the horrific nature of the attack moved him. But the United States response was clearly about sending messages to President Bashar al-Assad and his allies, as well as the international community: Chemical weapons will not be used with impunity.

To be sure, this American strike, which was targeted and designed to inflict significant damage on one air base in Syria, will also convey to the Iranians, and to the North Koreans, that they had better take the words of this administration seriously.…  Seguir leyendo »

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The Obama administration wants to reduce the violence and suffering in Syria and, at the same time, quash jihadist groups there. This is why the White House is now pushing a plan for the United States to cooperate with the Russian military in Syria, sharing intelligence and coordinating airstrikes against the Islamic State and the Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front. In return, Russia would force the government of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, to stop using barrel bombs and air attacks in areas in which neither extremist group is present.

Wiping out terrorist groups in Syria is an important goal and, after years of death and destruction, any agreement among the country’s warring parties or their patrons may seem welcome.…  Seguir leyendo »

An Israeli soldier stands behind a Palestinian flag and a placard held by a protester during a Feb. 20 demonstration against Jewish settlements in the West Bank city of Hebron. (Hazem Bader/Agence France-Presse via Getty Images)

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Rarely has there been a time when less attention has been paid to the Israeli­-Palestinian conflict than today. Given the threat from the Islamic State, the humanitarian catastrophe in Syria, proxy conflicts between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and Egypt’s struggles with radical Islamists, it is hard to find anyone in Washington or the Arab capitals who is thinking about the Israelis and Palestinians. But the problem is not going away.

For the past five months, there have been more than 100 individual Palestinian terrorist attacks against Israelis. As the risk of escalation grows, both sides are becoming even more doubtful that there will ever be peace.…  Seguir leyendo »

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I last saw Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin on Nov. 1, 1995, three days before his assassination. As President Clinton's chief negotiator in the Middle East, I was briefing him on my talks with Syrian President Hafez Assad and discussing my upcoming meeting in Gaza with the Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat. But I was not just focused on negotiating tracks. I also wanted to hear how he was handling an increasingly ugly atmosphere in Israel.

It had been five weeks since we had concluded the Interim Agreement, which would bring the Palestinian Authority to all the major cities in the West Bank, produce the Israeli military's withdrawal from those cities and provide for Palestinian elections.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Last week, before going to New York to address the United Nations General Assembly, the president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, declared that he would drop a bombshell in his speech. The much-awaited line, delivered Wednesday, was this: “We cannot continue to be bound by these signed agreements,” by which he meant the Oslo Accords, “and Israel must assume fully all its responsibility as an occupying power.”

These sound like strong words, but what do they actually mean? Did Mr. Abbas mean that he intended to dismantle the Palestinian Authority, the entity set up by the Gaza-Jericho agreement of 1994?…  Seguir leyendo »

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Many members of Congress continue to grapple with the nuclear deal with Iran — and so do we. Like us, the undecideds see its benefits: The deal would block the uranium enrichment, plutonium separation and covert paths to a nuclear bomb for the next 15 years. Compared with today, with an Iran that is three months from break-out capability and with a stockpile of 10 bombs’ worth of low-enriched uranium, there can be little doubt that a deal leaves us far better off , producing a one-year break-out time and permitting the Iranians less than one bomb’s worth of material for the next 15 years .…  Seguir leyendo »

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The controversy over Republican House Speaker John Boehner’s invitation to Benjamin Netanyahu to address a joint meeting of Congress has had the ironic effect of diverting attention from the very topic the Israeli prime minister wants to discuss: the problems with a potential deal on the Iranian nuclear program. Although everyone debates the propriety of the Israeli prime minister challenging President Obama’s policy in such a setting, the partisan nature of the invitation and the timing of the speech — just two weeks before an Israeli election — the substance of the issue has been pushed aside. Why is there such a divide between the United States’ and Israel’s positions, and can they be bridged?…  Seguir leyendo »

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The president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, insists on using international institutions to pressure Israel, even after he was rebuffed in the United Nations Security Council, where he sought a resolution mandating Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Mr. Abbas has now announced that he will turn to the International Criminal Court — a move that will produce Palestinian charges and Israeli countercharges but not alter the reality on the ground.

A European official I met recently expressed sympathy for the Palestinians’ pursuit of a Security Council resolution. I responded by saying that if he favors Palestinian statehood, it’s time to stop giving the Palestinians a pass.…  Seguir leyendo »