Dmitri Trenin

Nota: Este archivo abarca los artículos publicados por el autor desde el 1 de mayo de 2009. Para fechas anteriores realice una búsqueda entrecomillando su nombre.

Russia is usually seen as relatively unimportant to most discussions about the North Korea nuclear crisis, yet it is in a unique position to help de-escalate it.

Despite rising tensions between Moscow and Washington — over Russia’s interventions in Crimea and Syria, and the very principles of the world order — Russia has voted twice in recent weeks at the United Nations to impose sanctions on North Korea. In the summer of 2015, in the midst of the crisis over Ukraine, Moscow was careful not to do anything that might derail the Obama administration’s efforts to cinch a nuclear deal with Iran.…  Seguir leyendo »

Durante una generación, las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia se circunscribieron  esencialmente a la esfera histórica. Desde el fin de la Guerra Fría, Rusia ante los ojos de EE.UU. y de gran parte del resto del mundo se tornó en una nación cada vez más periférica; es decir, aparentemente, su importancia y su poder internacional se encontraban relegados al pasado. Hoy en día dichos tiempos han terminado.

Sin duda, el actual conflicto entre EE.UU. y Rusia sobre Ucrania es disparejo, dada la disparidad de poder entre las dos partes. Rusia no es, y ni siquiera puede pretender ser, un competidor por el dominio del mundo.…  Seguir leyendo »

Viktor F. Yanukovych of Ukraine and the Ukrainian opposition leaders signed an agreement on Friday that ended the deadly protests in Kiev by promising a new constitution and early elections. But the Russian president’s envoy to Kiev refused to co-sign it. While Moscow welcomed an end to the violence, it basically viewed the agreement as a diktat by the Western-backed Ukrainian opposition. The opposition has seized power in Kiev, and Moscow is wary that the crisis will not end anytime soon. Some radical groups remain well-armed; there are deep political, cultural and regional cleavages in Ukrainian society; the country’s elites are in disarray; and its economic situation is rapidly deteriorating.…  Seguir leyendo »

In 2007, when Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to Guatemala City to support his country’s bid to host this year’s Winter Olympics in Sochi, he knew that winning would be the easiest step in the process.

Many joked that only Russia would propose a subtropical seaside resort for a winter-sports competition. While concerns about a lack of snow in the surrounding mountains, or about Russia’s ability to build the needed infrastructure in time, have gradually receded since Russia was awarded the games, one major apprehension has remained: the threat of terrorism.

Sochi is located in the North Caucasus region, which, following the Soviet Union’s dissolution, experienced a long and brutal armed insurgency in Chechnya, while neighboring Dagestan, in particular, later became a hotbed of Islamist extremism and terrorism.…  Seguir leyendo »

As Barack Obama was agonizing over what to do after the poison-gas attacks last month in Syria, Vladimir Putin was dealing with a different kind of emergency: record floods in the Russian Far East. At a press conference in Khabarovsk, the Russian president himself set out the Kremlin’s reading of the Syrian situation.

The reports that the Syrian government had used chemical weapons were “utter nonsense,” he said. His analysis was essentially based on his sense of who stood to gain from crossing Obama’s “red line,” especially when a U.N. inspection team was already on the ground in Syria. It was not the Assad government, in Putin’s view; he had earlier declared that such an attack would be suicidal for the government.…  Seguir leyendo »

The United States and Russia have announced that they will seek to convene an international conference on Syria, hopefully before the end of this month.

The conference would be based on last June’s Geneva agreement, which foresees a cease-fire and negotiations between the regime in Damascus and the opposition groups, leading to the formation of a transitional governing body.

In order to achieve this, Washington and Moscow will “encourage” the Syrian sides to come to the negotiating table and will reach out to their allies and partners in the region to work for a political solution to the Syrian crisis.

This announcement, which came after Secretary of State John Kerry’s talks in Moscow with President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, calls for very heavy lifting.…  Seguir leyendo »

Ahora que las elecciones presidenciales del año 2012 en los hechos terminaron debido a la decisión de Vladimir Putin de recuperar su antigua oficina del Kremlin, es hora de pasar de personalidades a políticas. Putin tiene previsto permanecer en el Kremlin por dos períodos presidenciales más, otros 12 años, ya que está habilitado para hacerlo según la Constitución recientemente modificada. Entonces, ahora ya se sabe con certeza quién será el próximo presidente de Rusia, no obstante aún no es tan obvio qué es lo que él espera lograr.

Sin embargo, actualmente un asunto se ha catapultado a la cima de la agenda política de Rusia: la integración euroasiática.…  Seguir leyendo »

As President Obama approaches his second term, few foreign policies are more in need of reassessment than his stance toward Russia.

Recent events have eroded the promise of the “reset” proclaimed in 2009. Its achievements — the New START Treaty, cooperation on Afghanistan and Iran, Russia’s entry into the World Trade Organization — have faded, replaced by stubborn differences over Syria, Iran and other high-profile issues amid rising, gratuitously antagonistic rhetoric in both capitals.

Obama will now try to reverse this deterioration, perhaps demonstrating some of the “flexibility” he promised Russian leaders earlier this year. Putin, for his part, has talked about giving the relations “a new quality” by adding a strong economic dimension.…  Seguir leyendo »

Two senior Russian officials, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Mikhail Fradkov, the director of Foreign Intelligence, have just been to Damascus.

Their mission was not to nudge Bashar al-Assad from power and offer him exile in Russia. Rather, the talk was about dialogue with the opposition, offering a referendum on a new constitution, and the Arab League resuming its “stabilizing” mission. Russia, for its part, would stand firm alongside China at the U.N. Security Council, preventing a formal condemnation of the Syrian regime, any outside military intervention, or any sanctions against it.

Coming so late in the game, the attempt at reconciliation is bound to fail.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev’s warning last week of measures Russia will take if the United States and NATO continue with their missile-defense program in Europe, while sounding tough, is not the end of the U.S.-Russian reset. It is more of a pre-election recess of Russian-American diplomacy.

But his statement, and more broadly the state of U.S.-Russian arms-control efforts, reveals a broad gap in how the nuclear powers perceive each other’s importance. For Washington, Russia has fallen far down on the list of priorities. The Russian political and security establishment, by contrast, continues to be obsessed with the United States.

In the televised statement, Medvedev warned that should the United States continue with plans to base antimissile systems in Europe, Russia would arm its ballistic missiles with advanced defense-penetration systems, deploy tactical missiles on the border with Poland, and possibly withdraw from the New Start nuclear arms reduction treaty.…  Seguir leyendo »

Ahora que las elecciones presidenciales del año 2012 en los hechos terminaron debido a la decisión de Vladimir Putin de recuperar su antigua oficina del Kremlin, es hora de pasar de personalidades a políticas. Putin tiene previsto permanecer en el Kremlin por dos períodos presidenciales más, otros 12 años, ya que está habilitado para hacerlo según la Constitución recientemente modificada. Entonces, ahora ya se sabe con certeza quién será el próximo presidente de Rusia, no obstante aún no es tan obvio qué es lo que él espera lograr.

Sin embargo, actualmente un asunto se ha catapultado a la cima de la agenda política de Rusia: la integración euroasiática.…  Seguir leyendo »

Twenty years ago this month, the Soviet Union — the last of the great 20th century empires — started to crumble following the ill-advised putsch of August 1991. Within two years, it had vanished altogether.

Compared to the prolonged and bloody demises of the British and French empires, the Soviet Union’s collapse was remarkably calm. The “Commonwealth of Independent States” (C.I.S.), which many people mistook for a new name for the Soviet Union — and some dubbed “a fresh edition of the Russian empire” — accomplished the mission of making sure that the dissolution of the U.S.S.R. was one of the most peaceful and least violent imperial exits in history.…  Seguir leyendo »