Erica Frantz

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The Treacherous Path to a Better Russia

For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power”, U.S. President Joe Biden said of his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, a month after Russia launched a brutal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Biden’s off-the-cuff remark, which his administration swiftly sought to walk back, did not merely reflect anger at the destruction unleashed by Putin’s war of choice. It also revealed the deeply held assumption that relations between Russia and the West cannot improve as long as Putin is in office. Such a sentiment is widely shared among officials in the transatlantic alliance and Ukraine, most volubly by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky himself, who last September ruled out peace talks until a new Russian leader is in place.…  Seguir leyendo »

A pro-Russian flash mob in Yalta, Crimea, March 2023. Alexey Pavlishak / Reuters

More than a year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a grim reality has settled in: the war will not end soon. Despite the heavy fighting in and around the eastern city of Bakhmut and other parts of the Donbas, the frontlines have not substantively changed in months. Russia’s much-anticipated offensive appears to be underway, but Moscow lacks the capabilities to make any significant gains. Ukraine, too, is preparing for a springtime offensive, but the country’s human and material losses could limit its success. And neither Russian President Vladimir Putin nor Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appears interested in negotiations. Given the apparent impasse, the question becomes how long will the two leaders opt to fight.…  Seguir leyendo »

After last week’s elections, the European Parliament is more fragmented than ever — growing discontent with the mainstream meant that centrist and mainstream parties took a beating. For the first time in 40 years, the center-right and the center-left will no longer control a majority of the European Parliament, and power will be spread over eight party groupings rather than seven in the last parliament. Although the far right did well, so too did the liberals and Greens.

This mirrors the fragmentation that has been happening in national European parliaments. Across the continent, political party systems are splintering. Some of this reflects the resurgence of existing parties.…  Seguir leyendo »

People gather outside Harare’s airport to welcome former Zimbabwean vice president Emmerson Mnangagwa on Nov. 22, in Harare. Mnangagwa, 75, was sacked by President Robert Mugabe on Nov. 6, infuriating army chiefs and triggering events that led to Mugabe’s ouster. (Zinyange Auntony/AFP/Getty Images)

After 37 years in office, Robert Mugabe’s odds of being removed from power by members of his ruling circle in Zimbabwe were slim. Research on authoritarianism suggests the 93-year-old president was well-positioned to live out his final days in office and join the ranks of the 80 post-World War II dictators who have died in office of natural causes.

The longer a dictator rules, the less likely he is to be toppled in a coup — that’s what history reveals. While concerns about succession loomed large in Zimbabwe, data show that older leaders (ages 65 and up) are at lower risk of losing power in a coup than are their younger despotic counterparts.…  Seguir leyendo »