As policymakers and stakeholders grapple with designing post-war strategies in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen, it is increasingly important to understand what works to prevent countries from relapsing into war.
Conflict-torn states have narrow windows of opportunity to prevent war relapse, and failure is common. About half of all post-war countries lapse back into civil conflict between the same belligerents in the first decade after the end of fighting.
Long-standing international conventional wisdom prioritizes economic reforms, transitional justice mechanisms or institutional continuity in post-war settings. However, my statistical analyses found that political institutions and military factors were actually the primary drivers of post-war risk.… Seguir leyendo »