1. Resistance to Biden is likely
The result of the election made it clear America has not rejected ‘Trumpism’ and remains deeply polarized. Donald Trump remains an important figure within the Republican Party, and perhaps even its leader.
Some senior figures in the party support his efforts to convey the impression the election was ‘stolen’ from them, and analysts such as Max Boot and Timothy Snyder are even comparing this to the Dolchstosslegende (myth of a stab in the back) in Germany after World War I.
Assuming Joe Biden does take over as president on 20 January, the question is what form any ‘resistance’ to his administration takes.… Seguir leyendo »
The authors of this collection consider the most pressing foreign policy challenges for the next US president, and examine how the outcome of the 2020 election will affect these.
The president will determine how the US’s diplomatic, economic and military resources are invested, and what value the administration will attach to existing alliances and multilateral institutions.
Whoever sits in the White House will shape the trajectory of the US–China relationship and the global economy after the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as international cooperation on climate action, international trade and technology policy, and health.
- The last four years have confirmed that the choices the US makes are highly consequential for international politics.
… Seguir leyendo »
It is less than a month since we published our research paper on the future of democracy in Europe. But it feels like we now live in a different world. The coronavirus has already killed thousands of people in Europe, led to an unprecedented economic crisis and transformed daily life – and in the process raised difficult new questions about democracy.
The essence of our argument in the paper was that democracy in Europe should be deepened. But now there is a much more basic question about whether democracies can protect their citizens from the pandemic.
There has already been much discussion about whether authoritarian states will emerge stronger from this crisis than democracies.… Seguir leyendo »
This week the UK will start negotiating its future relationship with the European Union. The government is trying to convince the EU that it is serious about its red lines and is prepared to walk away from negotiations if the UK’s ‘regulatory freedom’ is not accepted – a no-deal scenario that would result in tariffs between the EU and the UK. Yet at the same time the story is telling the world is that Britain is ‘re-emerging after decades of hibernation as a campaigner for global free trade’, as Boris Johnson put it in his speech in Greenwich a few weeks ago.… Seguir leyendo »
The European Union is the ultimate ‘rules-based order’. Since the end of the Cold War, the world has become increasingly integrated, in a process that Dani Rodrik has called ‘hyper-globalization’ to distinguish this from the more moderate form of globalization that occurred during the Cold War period.
But Europe, which was already more integrated than the rest of the world, has gone even further in removing barriers to the internal movement of capital, goods and people. The consequence of this has been the need for a more developed system of rules to govern this deep integration.
For much of this period, many Europeans – and also many outside Europe who had a liberal view of international politics – believed that the EU was a kind of blueprint for global governance.… Seguir leyendo »
It often seems to be completely forgotten that NATO, which celebrates its 70th anniversary on 4 April, was a British initiative. Specifically, the idea came from Ernest Bevin, the foreign secretary in the radical Labour government of Clement Attlee.
In a speech in the House of Commons in January 1948, Bevin called for a ‘Western Union’ that would provide the security on which the reconstruction of Europe depended. Over the next 14 months, he turned his vision into a reality in a series of carefully calibrated steps. Though of course the crucial element was the US security guarantee to Europe, it is doubtful whether it would have happened without Bevin’s creativity and tenacity.… Seguir leyendo »
Last Thursday the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, warned that the future of the EU depended on whether it could find answers to the question of migration. But as difficult as the issue of migration is, it is actually just one element of the hugely complex challenge facing the EU, which is divided along multiple, overlapping faultlines that have developed over the last decade and seem to be deepening.
The future of the European project depends not just on whether the EU can deal effectively with refugees in the Mediterranean, but also on whether it can find a way to reconcile diverging conceptions of what Europe should be.… Seguir leyendo »
Much of the discussion about ‘populism’ that is currently taking place is hopelessly binary and reductive. Perhaps the best example of this is the idea that there is a new fault line in politics between ‘open’ and ‘closed’ that is more important than, or has even replaced, the fault line between left and right.
In particular, against the background of the referendum on British membership of the EU, ‘pro-European’ centrists have come to identify the European project with the idea of ‘open’ societies and an ‘open’ world and both left-wing and right-wing Eurosceptics with the idea of ‘closed’ societies and a ‘closed’ world.… Seguir leyendo »
Los europeístas en Bruselas y otros lugares suelen imaginar la integración europea como un proceso más o menos lineal. En general, elogian la integración y denuestan la “desintegración”. Por ello, la propuesta de la Comisión Europea de profundizar la integración de la zona euro creando la figura de un ministro de Economía, un presupuesto común y convertir el Mecanismo Europeo de Estabilidad (MEDE) en una especie de fondo monetario europeo –tal como se discute en la actualidad– es para los adalides del europeísmo un paso adelante. En efecto, gran parte del debate sobre el grado de europeísmo del nuevo gobierno que se forme en Alemania se ha centrado en su apertura a esas iniciativas, que fueron originalmente formuladas por el presidente francés Emmanuel Macron.… Seguir leyendo »
Until a couple of weeks ago, it seemed that one of the few things you could be certain about in a time of huge uncertainty elsewhere in the west was that Angela Merkel would become German chancellor for a fourth term following this September’s election. The February issue of the magazine Cicero showed Merkel emerging from a ballot box with the headline: “What’s the point of voting anymore?” The only real question was what kind of coalition she would lead: yet another grand coalition of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats (the third in four electoral periods), or possibly the first ever “black-green” coalition?… Seguir leyendo »
Desde que comenzó la crisis del euro —hace ahora cinco años— se ha debatido mucho sobre la hegemonía alemana en Europa. Desde el inicio de la crisis, políticos y periodistas han descrito rutinariamente a Alemania como el “poder hegemónico reticente” —en otras palabras, una potencia que se niega a desempeñar su propio papel— y se le ha reprochado no ser más audaz. Por ejemplo, en un discurso ya famoso pronunciado en Berlín el 11 de noviembre de 2011, el ministro polaco de Asuntos Exteriores, Radek Sikorski, dijo que temía al poder alemán menos de lo que estaba empezando a temer la inactividad alemana, e instó a Alemania a liderar a Europa.… Seguir leyendo »