Heiko Wimmen

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Diplomacy Must Prevail in Israel-Hizbollah Conflict

MundoOriente Próximo

The latest round in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has ushered in a new phase in the long-running standoff between Israel and Hizbollah, the powerful Shiite militia-cum-party in Lebanon. For seventeen years, mutual deterrence helped preserve a shaky calm, but since 7 October, daily rocket fire and drone attacks across the border have raised the spectre of all-out war. Whether or not the two sides manage to forestall such a near-term escalation, trouble lies down the road: Israel has made it clear that, after Hamas’s 7 October attack on communities ringing the Gaza Strip, it will no longer tolerate Hizbollah’s presence on its northern frontier.…  Seguir leyendo »

Israeli soldiers take positions near the Israeli military base of Har Dov on Mount Hermon, a strategic and fortified outpost at the crossroads between Israel, Lebanon, and Syria, on October 10, 2023. Jalaa MAREY / AFP

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Since 8 October, the second day of the mounting Gaza war, Hizbollah and Israel have traded sporadic fire over the Lebanese-Israeli border. For now, both sides appear keen to stick to the established “rules of the game” – unwritten understandings about red lines neither should cross – to avoid an escalation. Yet things could turn deadly at any moment. Palestinian militants operating from Lebanese soil have already fired rockets at Israel and tried to breach the border, drawing Israeli shelling that has caused casualties, prompting Hizbollah to respond. Should additional clashes take Israeli lives, provoking a massive retaliation, the Shiite Islamist group would be in a very difficult position.…  Seguir leyendo »

A boy waves a flag Lebanon’s Iran-backed Shiite group Hezbollah during a rally to attend a speech by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, broadcast on a giant screen, in the southern city of Nabatiyeh, on May 9, 2022, ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections on May 15. The portraits on billboards are fighters from the group who were killed in confrontations with Israel or in Syria. (Photo by Mahmoud Zayyat/AFP via Getty Images)

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Parliamentary elections in Lebanon on May 15 will keep in power many of the same political elites that have led the country into a ruinous economic crisis, a dispiriting outcome for the domestic opposition and foreign actors aiming to avoid the creation of yet another failed state in the region. These results should impel stakeholders to navigate the narrow limits of change imposed by domestic and regional conditions.

Parliamentary elections, and ways to deter the ruling elite from cancelling the polls, have taken center stage in debates about Lebanon in the past year. Voting in a new parliament might have been an inflection point toward the change needed to unlock substantial foreign assistance and thereby arrest the country’s descent into ever-deeper crisis.…  Seguir leyendo »

The scene of an Israeli air strike in Syria’s Latakia region is pictured on 5 May 2021 (SANA/AFP)

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The explosion of a  Syrian anti-aircraft missile in southern Israel on 22 April, followed by Israeli attacks  around the northern city of Latakia on 5 May, were only the latest episodes of the shadow war that Israel and Iran have been fighting in war-ravaged Syria for several years. They will not be the last.

Neither side wants these occasional flareups to grow into a fully fledged confrontation. But the risk of escalation is real due to potential miscalculations or technical errors in both sides’ attempts to achieve tactical gains.

The involvement of Hezbollah, Tehran’s most important non-state ally, in the Syrian theatre carries a further risk that comparatively low-level altercations in Syria may spill over into Lebanon and trigger a destructive conflict between the heavily armed Shia group and Israel.…  Seguir leyendo »

Government election officials carry a ballot box into polling stations ahead of the country's May 6 parliamentary election, in Beirut, Lebanon, on 5 May 2018. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

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Who won and who lost in the Lebanese elections?

The 6 May elections readjusted the political balance but brought no fundamental change. As before, no government can be formed without Hizbollah. To be effective in government the Shiite Islamist movement, as always, will have to reach out to partners that oppose much of its agenda. Hizbollah is not about to take formal control of the next government, however, because that move would put Lebanon at risk of losing crucial foreign support or even becoming a pariah state.

The main feature of the polls was not the Shiite movement’s triumph but significant losses for Sunni Muslim Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s Future Movement, which saw its parliamentary bloc dwindle by a third to twenty seats of the 128-seat parliament.…  Seguir leyendo »

Volatility is rising across the Middle East as local, regional and international conflicts increasingly intertwine and amplify each other. Four Crisis Group analysts give a 360-degree view of the new risks of overlapping conflicts that involve Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Lebanon and Israel.

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On 4 November 2017, Huthi/Saleh forces in Yemen fired a Burkan 2-H long-range ballistic missile at the Saudi capital, Riyadh. It was intercepted and destroyed before reaching its target. The attack occurred during a profound political shakeup in Saudi Arabia, where Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is seeking to consolidate power, and amid dramatic Saudi political manoeuvrings in the region which led to the resignation of Lebanon’s prime minister, Saad Hariri. Adding to the volatility, Israel has been making veiled – and not so veiled – threats about its intent to prevent Hizbollah from developing an indigenous capacity to build sophisticated precision missiles.…  Seguir leyendo »

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With its 9 May announcement that it has decided to directly arm the Kurdish-dominated People’s Protection Units (YPG) in Syria, Washington has inserted itself even further into one of the region’s oldest and bloodiest conflicts: the 33-year-long fight between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is the mother organisation of the YPG and a group deemed a terrorist group by not only Turkey but by the US itself.

In fighting the Islamic State (IS), Washington has been supporting the YPG indirectly for several years and meeting with its commanders. But the decision to provide arms directly further elevates the PKK’s Syrian branch’s status.…  Seguir leyendo »