Henry Sokolski

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers a speech on Iran's nuclear program at the defense ministry in Tel Aviv on Apr. 30, 2018. Jack Guez / AFP

Earlier this summer, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed that Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium to make its first nuclear bomb in just one or two weeks. That’s pretty frightening. But now some experts argue that Tehran would still need up to one year to fashion this material into a working weapon and even longer—perhaps a year or two—to fully build a missile-deliverable warhead.

You should be skeptical. A look at other countries’ nuclear bomb-building efforts suggests that these projections are wrong. For a missile-deliverable weapon, Iran needs to perfect nonnuclear, high-explosive-related components to compress the weapons-grade uranium and produce a nuclear yield.…  Seguir leyendo »

A photo provided by the Russian Defense Ministry shows a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile being launched during a military drill. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service/AP)

Nuclear proliferation is about to go critical.

Last week, the House Intelligence Committee chairman volunteered that Iran could declare itself a nuclear weapons state by the end of the year. And earlier this month, the U.S. intelligence community warned that Iran has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.’’ How quickly? Experts now say 12 weeks or less.

The mullahs might alert us or stay mum. Either way, the next president’s challenge won’t be how to prevent Iran from going nuclear but deciding what to do after it gets nuclear weapons.…  Seguir leyendo »