Howard Eissenstat

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Ucrania, Rusia, Conflicto armado, Conflicto territorial,

Europa, , , , ,

Over the weekend, following a request from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced that Ankara would implement the Montreux Convention. The decision made headlines around the world — but what does this mean, exactly?

The most important implications of Turkey’s decision have more to do with Turkey’s own diplomatic strategy rather than any particular effect in shifting the tide of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The military impact is probably limited

This 1936 international agreement allows Turkey, during times of war, to regulate transit of warships through the Turkish Straits, the heavily traveled waterway connecting the Black Sea and the Aegean.…  Seguir leyendo »

Europa,

The weekend’s election results were a stunning rebuke to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The clear victor in the new Istanbul municipal election was the Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate, Ekrem Imamoglu, overturning 25 years of governance by Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) or its precursors.

It is a turning point for the city of 15 million and, indeed, for all of Turkey. The full repercussions of Sunday’s election may take years to fully understand, but some lessons are already clear.

Pessimists (like me) overstated our case

As elections became increasingly unfair and unfree, many scholars increasingly saw Turkey as a hybrid state, combining elections with authoritarian tools to limit effective opposition.…  Seguir leyendo »

Europa,

Corrupt, egomaniacal and repressive, there is not much to recommend Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan’s rule – save the inescapable fact that he is the democratically elected head of state. And that he is a politician who shines brightest in a fight.

Erdoğan is not going to give up. He has millions of supporters who will give their lives for him. He has the support of all the opposition parties. And, because he’s won three elections – he is in the right.

Friday night, the streets of Istanbul were filled with people. Mosques in Turkey had been calling the people into the street.…  Seguir leyendo »