Hace cuatro años, un tsunami devastador golpeó la costa de Japón. Olas de quince metros penetraron el muro de contención de la central nuclear de Fukushima I; la alimentación de emergencia se cortó y fallaron los sistemas de refrigeración.
Fue el peor accidente nuclear desde la explosión de la central de Chernobyl en 1986. Los investigadores determinaron que se produjo en parte por descuido: los encargados de la planta creían tener un nivel de seguridad suficiente, y no había mecanismos eficaces de control independiente.
El desastre de Fukushima impulsó reformas para la prevención de accidentes nucleares, pero cuando se trata de la vigilancia contra actos malintencionados, el descuido todavía es grande.… Seguir leyendo »
Two years ago, together with a broad group of former officials and experts, we warned that, in the absence of a new military and political strategy for the Euro-Atlantic region, there was a risk that stability would weaken and security would break down. Sadly there are clear signs that this is happening, with Europe now beset by its most serious and deadly crisis in decades.
In Ukraine, more than 5,000 people have been killed, 10,000 more have been wounded, and 1.2 million have been forced from their homes. If we don’t stop the killing and address the mounting divisions in Europe, our generation may claim to have ended the Cold War without securing a peaceful future.… Seguir leyendo »
Russian and Western perspectives on the crisis in Ukraine are bound to diverge, but the tragedy of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 should bring us together. This is not only because we can appreciate and feel saddened by the scale of the human loss, but also because the incident is a harbinger of the wider danger we are in. Of profound concern is the possibility of an unintended escalation of the conflict in eastern Ukraine to a direct NATO-Russia military confrontation. To avoid such a development, policy makers need to relearn some important crisis management lessons from history.
Just consider that even before the Flight 17 disaster, we had seen a huge deterioration in mutual trust between Russia and the West.… Seguir leyendo »
Security policies in the Euro-Atlantic region — an area that includes six of the world’s 10 largest economies, four of the five declared nuclear weapon states, and more than 95 percent of global nuclear inventories — are dangerously out of date and demand urgent attention. With a new approach that is grounded in today’s opportunities and challenges, the European community, Russia and the United States can chart a more secure path for their people and the world and avoid the risks and costs of a new downward spiral in relations between states.
The first step is to get out from under Cold War-era strategies and tactics that are ill-suited to the real threats we face.… Seguir leyendo »
The recent experience of “reset” in Russian-American relations is remarkable in at least two ways. On the one hand, it demonstrated that, given the political commitment of both presidents, the two sides can accomplish a lot within a short time span. On the other hand, this experience confirmed that the relationship between our countries remains vulnerable to shifting political winds and passing policy differences, as we are currently witnessing.
The challenge we face at the beginning of 2013 is not to preserve reset, but to move beyond it. The time has come to turn the page and to address the realities of the 21st century.… Seguir leyendo »
En Rusia, la crisis financiera de la UE es observada con matices. Algunos la ven con cierta simpatía, mientras que otros la observan con malicia. Las dificultades de Europa reabren el debate sobre la relevancia de lo «europeo» en Rusia, que surge periódicamente en nuestra historia: lo occidental frente a lo eslavo. Atlantistas y euroasiáticos. Liberales y conservadores. Ahora, los «euroescépticos» rusos insisten en debatir qué es más importante y más cercano: ¿Europa o Asia?, ¿la UE o China?, ¿los países desarrollados o los emergentes?
Este debate tiene poco sentido. En la era de la globalización, el ámbito geográfico tradicional pierde relevancia, y es imposible distinguir entre Oriente y Occidente.… Seguir leyendo »
At the close of the Cold War, hopes were high for a more organized and peaceful international system. Two decades later, there is not much sign of one emerging.
The focus of governments is shifting away from the Euro-Atlantic community — the heart of the international system up to now — and there is little consensus within the international community on how to deal with today’s challenges of sovereign debt, economic recession, climate change, nuclear proliferation and radicalism.
In many ways, this historic “pivot” from the Euro-Atlantic region represents a form of progress; the great rivalries between the United States, Russia and the European powers that produced two world wars and threatened to destroy the world during the Cold War are hopefully a relic of the past.… Seguir leyendo »
On April 8, 2010 Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev met to sign the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). The treaty entered into force in February, and the sides have already exchanged data on their forces.
We should build on this momentum and take new actions to reduce nuclear risk and shape a safer world.
First, the United States and Russia should initiate early negotiations to further reduce their strategic arms. New START permits each side up to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads. They could negotiate to reduce that level to 1,000 deployed strategic warheads — with corresponding cuts in strategic missiles and bombers — which would leave each with more than enough to assure its security.… Seguir leyendo »
No other initiative has more near-term potential to ease the NATO-Russian relationship out of its petulant, impacted state, while giving a positive jolt to the revived but tentative and unfocused interest in an improved and more inclusive European security system, than missile-defense cooperation.
Were North America, Europe and Russia to make defense of the entire Euro-Atlantic region against potential ballistic missile attack a joint priority, they would — apart from addressing a concrete problem — in a single stroke undermine much of the threat analysis that sets Russia against NATO, and prove that trilateral cooperation on a key security issue is possible.… Seguir leyendo »
When presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev meet today for the first time, they will have an historic opportunity to confront the most urgent security threat to our world: the proliferation of nuclear weapons and the risk of nuclear terrorism. The two leaders can move beyond traditional arms control and, in a bold move, set the world on a course towards the total elimination of all nuclear weapons – global zero.
In London, they should agree that the US and the Russian Federation will begin work immediately to achieve an accord for deep reductions in their arsenals and then lead a longer-term effort with other nuclear powers to eliminate all nuclear weapons worldwide through phased and verified reductions.… Seguir leyendo »