Irfan Nooruddin

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A woman signs on a voters record after voting at a polling station during general elections in La Paz outskirts, Bolivia, Sunday, Oct. 20, 2019. (Jorge Saenz)

On Oct. 20, 2019, Bolivia held a presidential election. To win on the first round, the winner had to secure an outright electoral majority or at least 40 percent of the vote and a 10 percent margin over the second-place candidate. While incumbent Evo Morales had a comfortable lead over his principal opponent Carlos Mesa, the gap was below this threshold until a sharp late break in the vote trends went in favor of Morales.

As part of its audit of the results, the Organization of American States (OAS) commissioned me to conduct an independent analysis of the vote returns. I concluded that the vote shift that pushed Morales over the 10 percent margin needed to avoid a second-round election was unusual and suspicious.…  Seguir leyendo »