Ivan Kanapathy

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A news broadcast about Taiwan, Beijing, August 2022. Thomas Peter / Reuters

For half a century, peace has held in the Taiwan Strait. This has been due to a combination of creative diplomacy, military deterrence, and self-restraint on the part of China, Taiwan and the United States. But the factors that kept the peace in previous decades may not continue to do so in the future. The sources of instability are growing in one of the world’s most dangerous hot spots: diplomacy is fraying, deterrence is eroding, and China’s risk tolerance is increasing.

The most significant and destabilizing changes emanate from Beijing. Under President Xi Jinping, China is implementing a persistent and escalating campaign of coercion against Taiwan.…  Seguir leyendo »

Taiwanese Air Force pilots leave after President Tsai Ing-wen delivered a speech at a military base in Hsinchu, Taiwan, on April 1. SAM YEH/AFP via Getty Images

In September 2020, Richard Haass and David Sacks reignited a debate over providing a formal U.S. security guarantee to Taiwan, ending decades of strategic ambiguity regarding U.S. intentions. They reiterated their support for “strategic clarity”—“to make explicit to China that the United States would respond to an attack against Taiwan with … severe economic sanctions and military force”—in late 2021, two months before Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine.

Following the invasion, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe argued, “The time has come for the U.S. to make clear that it will defend Taiwan against any attempted Chinese invasion”. Similarly citing the Russia-Ukraine war example, Eric Edelman and Franklin Miller lobbied for “a clearly stated U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »