Jack A. Goldstone

Nota: Este archivo abarca los artículos publicados por el autor desde el 1 de mayo de 2009. Para fechas anteriores realice una búsqueda entrecomillando su nombre.

As world leaders gather in Paris this week to address climate change, they will labor under the shadow of recent attacks by Islamic State. Yet as they think about climate issues, they should remember that the connection between climate change and Islamic State – and more broadly, between climate change and political instability – is not just a coincidence. It may instead be the key reality of the 21st century.

The rise of IS was a direct result of the failure of the Syrian regime, as it was beset by urban uprisings in 2011. Yet those uprisings did not come out of nowhere, and were not merely inspired by protests in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.…  Seguir leyendo »

As world leaders gather in Paris this week to address climate change, they will labor under the shadow of recent attacks by Islamic State. Yet as they think about climate issues, they should remember that the connection between climate change and Islamic State — and more broadly, between climate change and political instability — is not just a coincidence. It may instead be the key reality of the 21st century.

The rise of IS was a direct result of the failure of the Syrian regime, as it was beset by urban uprisings in 2011. Yet those uprisings did not come out of nowhere, and were not merely inspired by protests in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.…  Seguir leyendo »

It is remarkable that, in response to ISIS’s attacks in Paris, all kinds of remedies and actions are now being vehemently proposed: adding Western ground troops to the forces attacking ISIS, setting new restrictions on the movement of refugees from Islamic countries to the West; changing the rules for movement within Europe and even the rights of long-resident Muslims in western nations.

These proposals are remarkable not because they are extreme or poorly thought out (which they often are). Rather, they are remarkable because they burst into a vacuum of ideas for responding to ISIS or to a major terrorist action in a western capital.…  Seguir leyendo »

Europe has a problem with immigrants. That is hardly news – it has been true for decades. But the problem has now become more acute and unmanageable because throughout those decades Europe refused to admit it had a problem. Rather than recognize that Europe’s future would involve ever more immigration, and make comprehensive plans to integrate and advance their immigrants, benign neglect or efforts at multiculturalism prevailed alongside a generous asylum policy. Europe’s immigrants were thus in, but not fully part of, their new societies. Such policies were bound to create trouble; for when immigrants are seen as a threat to be kept at a distance, and hence are excluded and marginalized, they become a threat.…  Seguir leyendo »

After endless, and sometimes seemingly hopeless, negotiations, diplomats have produced two new multinational deals that go a long way toward righting what’s been going wrong in the world: one on nuclear development in Iran and the second to keep Greece in the euro.

Both of these deals provide better outcomes than failed negotiations would have. They demonstrate that dedicated diplomacy can still achieve positive solutions within an integrated global system that is more or less still functioning. The Iran nuclear deal announced Tuesday is good for everyone, even — despite the vituperation of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — for Israel.…  Seguir leyendo »

President Xi Jinping of China has been offering his countrymen a vision of China’s future that he labels the ‘Chinese Dream.’ This future China will be prosperous, respected, and environmentally sound; it will be influential and admired for its accomplishments in creating a harmonious, stable, and well-off society. In pursuit of these goals, Xi has cracked down on corruption, elevated the importance of environmental regulation and quality of life over simple pursuit of maximizing GDP, and sought to encourage China’s leadership in regional development through new institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Xi has also sought to increase China’s influence in the region and the world through its role in international organizations like the BRICS, ASEAN, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.…  Seguir leyendo »

President Barack Obama has laid out his goal in the Middle East: to degrade and defeat Islamic State. Yet remarkably little progress seems to have been made.

Why has it proven so difficult for the world’s greatest power and its regional allies to succeed against an estimated 30,000 radical extremists?  The answer can be found by examining the situation the Allies confronted in Russia after World War One.

Then, as now, a relatively obscure revolutionary group with a threatening ideology seized control of a strategically important region. A war-weary United States agreed to limited participation in an allied effort to dislodge the radicals, providing several thousand troops and supplies.…  Seguir leyendo »

The wave of revolutions sweeping the Middle East bears a striking resemblance to previous political earthquakes. As in Europe in 1848, rising food prices and high unemployment have fueled widespread popular protests. As in Communist Europe in 1989, frustration with corrupt and unresponsive political systems produced defections among elites and the fall of once powerful regimes.

Yet 1848 and 1989 are not the right analogies for this past winter’s events. The revolutions of 1848 sought to overturn traditional monarchies, and those in 1989 were aimed at toppling Communist governments. The revolutions of 2011 are fighting something quite different: “sultanistic” dictatorships. Although such regimes often appear unshakable, they are actually highly vulnerable, because the very strategies they use to stay in power make them brittle, not resilient.…  Seguir leyendo »

Investors and pundits alike have shown unbounded excitement, and some anxiety, about China’s economic growth. Extrapolating current trends, some forecasters predict that China’s economy will vault ahead of America’s in 15 years. Yet simple extrapolation is the economists’ poorest guide. To accurately map the future, we need to consider whether the factors that fueled China’s rapid growth in past decades will continue in years to come.

From 1980 to 2010, the growth in China’s labor force was among the fastest in the world. At 1.7 percent per year, it contributed almost one-fifth of annual economic growth. Urbanization — a key source of productivity gains, as workers shifting from farms to urban manufacturing and services brought huge increases in output per worker — rose by 3.8 percent annually, as city residents soared from 20 percent to 45 percent of China’s total population.…  Seguir leyendo »