James M. Acton

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Posing with nuclear missiles in Beijing, October 2022. Florence Lo / Reuters

In a speech this June, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan drew attention to China’s nuclear buildup, Russia’s development of new nuclear capabilities, and the United States’ planned response. His remarks signaled the Biden administration’s assessment that nuclear risks are growing, particularly in the wake of Russia’s suspension of New START, the last U.S.-Russian treaty governing the two states’ nuclear arms, in February. What was most notable about his speech, however, was what he promised President Joe Biden would not do: launch a countervailing U.S. nuclear buildup. On this point, Sullivan was emphatic: “I want to be clear here—the United States does not need to increase our nuclear forces to outnumber the combined total of our competitors in order to successfully deter them”.…  Seguir leyendo »

A television is seen in a ferry cabin with file footage of a North Korean missile test, in the waters off South Korea's island of Ulleungdo (top back), on Nov. 4. Anthony Wallace/AFP via Getty Images

North Korea set a new annual record for missile launches back in June, and it’s still going strong. This week, Pyongyang launched 23 missiles in a single day, setting a new daily record, and U.S. officials have indicated that it is ready to conduct a nuclear test at any time. Less noticed are developments in North Korean nuclear doctrine, which are even more consequential than the missile launches. Recent doctrinal changes increase the risk of inadvertent nuclear war and should prompt a rethink of current policies in both Seoul and Washington.

In September, North Korea updated a 2013 law setting out its nuclear weapons policies and announced that it would respond to attacks against its nuclear command and control systems by launching a nuclear strike “automatically and immediately”.…  Seguir leyendo »

Commercial satellite photos show work underway at what experts describe as construction sites for missile silos for China’s most advanced intercontinental ballistic missiles. Some 119 construction sites have been spotted in a desert plain west of the Chinese city of Yumen. (Planet and the James C. Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies)

Wednesday morning, new evidence emerged that China is expanding its nuclear arsenal. Specifically, researchers at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies have identified the construction of about 119 new silos, most likely for China’s latest intercontinental ballistic missile, known as the DF-41. Previously, only 16 silos at a different site had been identified.

The news is likely to fuel the narrative that China is expanding its nuclear capabilities dramatically. But worst-case assumptions have usually been wrong when it comes to China’s nuclear weapons program. There are good reasons to suppose that they’ll also be off-the-mark in this case.

Here’s why you shouldn’t panic — especially since the U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

It's time to call Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's bluff.

Over the last few weeks, the Iranian president has stated on a number of occasions that his country will cease domestic efforts to manufacture fuel for one of its nuclear reactors if it is able to purchase the fuel from abroad. The United States should accept this proposal — publicly, immediately and unconditionally.

Iran's enrichment program has been the focus of international concern for almost a decade. Its first efforts were geared toward enriching uranium to 5% — suitable for use in a power reactor. But, in February 2010, in an ominous development, it started to feed some of this material back into its centrifuges to produce uranium enriched to 20%.…  Seguir leyendo »

The death of Alexander Litvinenko, the former K.G.B. officer who drank polonium-210 in a cup of tea, underscored the damage that radiological terrorists could do. The most familiar possible situations involve the detonation of a dirty bomb, a modest amount of high explosive mated to a container of radioactive material. But radioactive material inside the human body is far more dangerous than a dirty bomb.

Most analysts believe that about 10 people would die from radiation poisoning after a dirty bomb attack. Others believe that the only people likely to receive a lethal dose of radiation from a dirty bomb would already be dead from the blast.…  Seguir leyendo »