Jean-Marie Guéhenno (Continuación)

Murderous suicide bombings. A deadly upsurge of ethno-sectarian violence spilling over from Syria. A country whose friendship with the US and EU is increasingly fragile, and is now at daggers drawn with a historic enemy, Russia.

With another 28 people killed in the 17 February attack on Turkish soldiers in Ankara, there seems no end to Turkey’s misfortunes. Even scarier scenarios doing the rounds in the Turkish capital include talk of a 14th Russo-Turkish war, unprecedented polarisation of Turkish society and a continuation of the wave of Syrian refugees.

Turkey has been a full member of Nato since 1952, even if Ankara and its allies have not always seen eye to eye.…  Seguir leyendo »

The refugee crisis is morphing into one about the very nature of the European project. This is far more critical for the Union than the euro crisis, which, ultimately, could be resolved with a show of financial solidarity and money. The refugee issue, however, strikes at the heart of the values that underpin EU members’ core political solidarity.

As refugees continue to head northwards, the muted euro crisis-era criticism of Berlin’s insufficient sup- port for debtor countries has turned into a situation in which the EU’s anchor state stands almost alone. It is particularly painful for Berlin, which has done much for the newcomers while several countries – among those ones that Germany helped bring into the Union – are not prepared to do their share.…  Seguir leyendo »

Image: A U.S. military helicopter travels over the pacific ocean past a setting sun near Cardiff, California June 24, 2015. REUTERS/Mike Blake

Over the past year, violent extremist movements have made striking gains. ISIS has consolidated its control over a large swathe of Iraq and Syria, attracting tens of thousands of foreigners, establishing footholds elsewhere, and perpetrating terrorist attacks across the Middle East and beyond. Al Qaeda affiliates from Yemen to Syria to Somalia appear resilient, in some cases stronger than ever. ISIS’s attacks in the West – apparently centrally coordinated in the case of Paris, perpetrated by lone wolves elsewhere – have upped pressure on Western powers to respond more forcefully. Certainly, more can be done to fight ISIS. But any action must be informed by an accurate diagnosis of the problem and must avoid the mistakes of the past.…  Seguir leyendo »

Reunir una lista de las guerras a las que más atención y apoyo debe prestar la comunidad internacional en 2016 es difícil, y no por buenos motivos. Tras el fin de la guerra fría, durante veinte años, el número de conflictos mortales disminuyó. Había menos guerras y mataban a menos gente. Sin embargo, hace cinco años, esa tendencia positiva se invirtió, y desde entonces cada año hay más conflictos, más víctimas y más personas desplazadas. No parece que en 2016 vaya a mejorar la situación de 2015: lo que está en alza no es la paz, sino la guerra.

Dicho esto, hay algunos conflictos cuya urgencia y cuya importancia son mayores que las de otros.…  Seguir leyendo »

U.S. Army soldier provides security for infantry patrolling through Dandarh village, Afghanistan.

Pulling together a list of the wars most in need of international attention and support in 2016 is challenging for all the wrong reasons. For 20 years after the end of the Cold War, deadly conflict was in decline. Fewer wars were killing fewer people the world over. Five years ago, however, that positive trend went into reverse, and each year since has seen more conflict, more victims, and more people displaced. 2016 is unlikely to bring an improvement from the woes of 2015: It is war — not peace — that has momentum.

That said, there are conflicts whose urgency and importance rise above.…  Seguir leyendo »

For 70 years, Europe has been conducting a great liberal revolution. The European Union is not yet a finished project, but it has brought prosperity with peace, security and human rights in a measure the continent has never known. 2016 will reveal much about whether that revolution can keep moving forward.

On the eve of a nervous holiday season, the great challenge is to find the right responses to the Paris attacks and the so-called Islamic State, and to the refugee flood. Europe’s leaders and its citizens will be making fundamental choices about the core of the EU project. Firmness and moderation, principles and pragmatism are needed in interlocking, roughly equal measure.…  Seguir leyendo »

The deteriorating situation in Burundi is a perfect storm of much that undermines stability in Africa today — presidents seeking impunity and power through dubious new terms, authoritarian regimes muzzling opposition and independent media, regional rivalries stalemating efforts to bring peace and outside powers unwilling or unable to act.

If Africa’s problems need African solutions, as we truly believe, this is the time for the African Union to step up and prove its worth.

We welcome the AU’s strong statements so far on Burundi, but it needs to go much further, by insisting its observers deploy throughout the country and preparing for a robust peace implementation mission that can forestall atrocities, incipient civil war and a possible intervention from neighbouring Rwanda.…  Seguir leyendo »

When the Cold War ended in 1991, there was hope the U.N. Security Council would be able to take decisive action to create a more peaceful world. Early blue helmet successes in Cambodia, Namibia, Mozambique, and El Salvador seemed to vindicate that assessment.

This optimism was tripped up by the tragedies that followed in the former Yugoslavia, Somalia, and Rwanda. U.N. peacekeepers were bystanders to horrible atrocities. Peacekeeping shrank rapidly.

By the end of the 1990s, common wisdom was that such missions were a thing of the past, and that from now on regional organisations would take charge.

Pundits were proven wrong, and in 1999 U.N.…  Seguir leyendo »

Los emigrantes que tratan de acceder a Europa han añadido urgencia al debate intervencionista. ¿Puede haber islas de paz y prosperidad en un océano de caos y desesperación? Durante los últimos 15 años, la respuesta ha sido un rotundo no. El auge de las misiones de paz de la ONU, que han visto crecer el número de cascos azules de unas decenas de miles a más de 100.000, mostró un nuevo activismo de la comunidad internacional.

Hoy, esa confianza se ha perdido. El mantenimiento de la paz es visto como una cosa cara, compleja y de alto riesgo. ¿Realmente merece la pena esa inversión, tanto de sangre como de dinero, si los resultados son tan dudosos?…  Seguir leyendo »

The migrants trying to reach Europe give a renewed urgency to the debate on intervention: Can there be islands of peace and prosperity in an ocean of turmoil and despair? For the last 15 years, the answer was a resounding no. The unprecedented growth of UN peacekeeping operations, which saw the number of peacekeepers deployed increase from a few tens of thousands to more than 100,000, embodied a new activism of the international community.

Today that confidence has been lost. Peacekeeping is seen as costly, complicated, and high risk. Is the investment in blood and treasure worth it, when there are so few obvious success stories?…  Seguir leyendo »

En todo el mundo, al parecer, la crisis está controlando la política nacional. En cada elección se registran participaciones de los votantes históricamente bajas. A nivel universal, los políticos son condenados. Los partidos políticos tradicionales, desesperados por seguir siendo relevantes, caen en un círculo vicioso, y se ven forzados a ceder al extremismo o correr el riesgo de ser aplastados por movimientos populistas antisistema.

Mientras tanto, el dinero está teniendo un papel importante en la política como no se veía desde el fin de la Segunda Guerra Mundial, al grado que supera el poder de las ideas. En los Estados Unidos, por ejemplo, el sonido de los miles de millones de dólares dirigidos a las arcas de las campañas electorales, está ahogando las voces de los votantes individuales.…  Seguir leyendo »

L’ouverture des négociations entre le gouvernement malien et les mouvements politico- militaires du Nord Mali le 1er septembre 2014 à Alger laissait espérer un processus de retour durable à la paix. Conduites par la diplomatie algérienne, qui a pris la tête d’une équipe de médiation internationale, les discussions réunissaient pour la première fois depuis juin 2013 la plupart des acteurs du conflit autour de la même table. Mais à l’issue d’une première phase de négociation courte et plutôt décevante, la médiation internationale a remis aux parties maliennes un document présentant les « éléments pour un accord pour la paix et la réconciliation au Mali », qui apparaît comme le squelette déjà bien avancé d’un futur accord de paix.…  Seguir leyendo »

President Obama’s speech last week signaled a likely expansion into Syria of American airstrikes against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, yet offered little indication of an immediate strategy to halt ISIS’ gains there. The administration’s first focus thus remains on Iraq, while familiar pledges to work with regional allies and increase support to moderate rebels in Syria — if Congress approves sufficient funding — appear divorced from the urgency of the situation on the ground.

Though Western attention is drawn to Iraq, it is Syria that has witnessed the most significant ISIS gains since June. It is Aleppo, Syria’s largest metropolitan area, that presents ISIS’ best opportunity for expanding its claimed caliphate.…  Seguir leyendo »

L'ETA a annoncé il y a plus de trois semaines qu'elle était maintenant prête à livrer « toutes ses armes, jusqu'à la dernière cache», confirmant que la mise hors d'usage de quelques armes et explosifs, sous les caméras d'une commission indépendante, et révélée quelques jours avant, était seulement le prélude d'un désarmement complet.

La nouvelle n'a pas suscité de grandes réactions en France : depuis l'annonce par l'ETA, en octobre 2011, qu'elle renonçait à la lutte armée, il n'y a eu effectivement aucune action terroriste. Pour l'opinion française, le terrorisme basque est le problème d'hier : les polices espagnole et française ont courageusement fait leur travail, et l'ETA est définitivement écrasée.…  Seguir leyendo »

The last-minute agreement between Russia and the United States to put Syria’s chemical weapons under international control gives the West, which had run out of good options, a second chance to reach what always should have been its strategic goal: peace in Syria and an end to its people’s suffering.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov took advantage of Western leaders’ failure to formulate a clear central objective.

Did they hope to end Syria’s civil war by forcing a military stalemate, or to bring about the demise of President Bashar Assad’s regime?

Did they want to strengthen international law barring the use of chemical weapons, or to send Iran a signal about their determination to enforce “red lines”?…  Seguir leyendo »

El acuerdo in extremis entre Rusia y los Estados Unidos para poner las armas químicas de Siria bajo control internacional brinda a Occidente, que se había quedado sin opciones válidas, una segunda oportunidad de lanzar el que siempre debería haber sido su objetivo estratégico: la paz en Siria y el fin del sufrimiento de su pueblo.

El ministro de Asuntos Exteriores de Rusia, Serguéi Lavrov, aprovechó la incapacidad de los dirigentes occidentales para formular un objetivo fundamental y claro. ¿Esperaban poner fin a la guerra civil de Siria forzando un punto muerto militar o provocar la desaparición del régimen de Bashar Al Asad?…  Seguir leyendo »

Elections can lead to dictatorship but a military coup is rarely the foundation of democracy, and the audible sigh of relief of many countries after the military coup in Egypt was shameful and shortsighted. Meanwhile, a secular opposition leader has been assassinated in Tunisia, and in Syria the battle within the opposition is getting violent. Polarization is deepening throughout the Arab world, destroying the hopes created by the Arab Spring. The West badly needs to rethink its strategy in the region.

Let’s start with three assumptions: First, the Middle East will not escape the long-term global trend toward greater democratic accountability.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Arab revolutions are beginning to destroy the cliché of an Arab world incapable of democratic transformation. But another caricature is replacing it: according to the new narrative, the crowds in Cairo, Benghazi or Damascus, mobilized by Facebook and Twitter, are the latest illustration of the spread of Western democratic ideals; and while the “rise of the rest” may challenge the economic dominance of Western nations, the West will continue to define the political agenda of the world.

In that optimistic scenario, 1989 and 2011 are two chapters of the same story, which connect in a self-congratulatory way the political appeal of democracy and the transformative power of entrepreneurship and new technologies.…  Seguir leyendo »