Jonathan Powell

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The 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement this month should remind us that even the most intractable conflicts can eventually be resolved by negotiation. Northern Ireland was believed to be insoluble. No one could foresee a zone of possible agreement that could satisfy the Irish Republican Army (IRA), the Protestant Unionists and the British government. But there was one.

Ukraine and Northern Ireland are, of course, different. But we know the Ukraine war, too, will be resolved by negotiation in the end, however impossible it seems now. We know this because the only way to set terms unilaterally would be total victory, as at the end of the second world war.…  Seguir leyendo »

Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa addresses the 73rd session of the U.N. General Assembly on Sept. 26. (Frank Franklin II/AP)

MundoÁfrica

Nearly a year ago, on Nov. 21, the Zimbabwean armed forces toppled Robert Mugabe after a week of attempts to coerce him to resign from the presidency. The coup surprised many observers, as the armed forces had long supported Mugabe’s tenure. Afterward, the coup plotters tried to convince observers, both at home and internationally, that it wasn’t in fact a coup. Rather, their aim was to fix what they saw as Zimbabwe’s deteriorating political, social and economic conditions — or so they tried to persuade the world. For instance, soon after taking power in December, the new president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, promised “free and fair” elections in “four to five months.”…  Seguir leyendo »

Joan Valls/Urbanandsport/NurPhoto/Getty Images. People gesturing at a broadcast of Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, Barcelona, October 27, 2017

EspañaModelo de EstadoModelo Territorial

It is hard to watch the slow-motion car crash taking place in Catalonia without horrified fascination—and without thinking, at the same time, how serious and how avoidable it is.

The reason neither the European Union nor Spain’s neighbors are doing anything to allay the crisis is that we Europeans complacently believe that violent conflict will not return to the continent. Other European leaders do not believe the cost of annoying Spain’s prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, by intervening and losing his support on EU or bilateral issues is justified since they do not believe the Catalan situation is so serious that it will turn violent or directly affect them.…  Seguir leyendo »

Peace marchers in Bogotá, with a banner reading ‘For all that unites us and against all that separates us’. Photograph: Guillermo Legaria/AFP/Getty Images

MundoAméricaInternacionalTerrorismo Internacional, , ,

When I heard the result of Sunday’s peace referendum from Colombia I felt sick in my stomach. I have been advising President Juan Manuel Santos on the negotiations with the Farc (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia) for the past five years through my charity, Inter Mediate, and I couldn’t believe that they had actually lost the vote – albeit by fewer than 60,000 of the 13m votes cast.

The previous Monday I had been in Cartagena at the signing of the peace agreement. I was sitting next to two women who had lost their sons in the war and were wearing pictures of them on their chests.…  Seguir leyendo »

Call me, maybe? A Hamas fighter speaks on the phone as he sits inside the personal meeting hall of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas after they captured his headquarters in Gaza June 15, 2007. REUTERS/Suhaib Salem

InternacionalTerrorismo Internacional

Pope Francis strayed into controversy last week when he said that, while he supported military action against Islamic State, he also would not rule out speaking to the group if it would help bring peace to Syria and Iraq. “It is difficult, one could say almost impossible, but the door is always open,” he said.

Many questioned whether the Pope had taken leave of his senses. But he is not being contradictory, or foolish, in supporting military action now and, at the same time, advocating for a diplomatic end goal for the future.

I have studied the conflicts between governments and armed groups over the last thirty years, and the pattern is always the same.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaUnión EuropeaUE a debate

Sometimes politicians are tactical rather than strategic. They seek short-term fixes to their problems without thinking about the long-term consequences. They get good reviews on the day but the plan soon unravels. That is certainly the story of David Cameron's Europe speech on Wednesday. He received plaudits from his backbenches and temporarily discomfited Ed Miliband, but at the cost of creating long-term problems for his party and the country.

I have spent most of my life involved in diplomatic negotiations of one sort or another, including 10 years in No 10 wrestling with EU matters. From a purely negotiating point of view, I have seldom seen a weaker opening hand than that which Cameron dealt Britain in his speech on Wednesday.…  Seguir leyendo »