Josef Woldense

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Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embaló arrives for an E.U.-Africa summit at the European Council in Brussels on Feb. 17. (John Thys/Pool/AP)

Armed assailants attempted to launch a coup against the Guinea-Bissau government last month. Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embaló quickly reported that the plot was foiled, and he linked the perpetrators to the illicit drug trade.

My research suggests Embaló’s actions in the coming months — especially decisions about the appointments and shuffling of political elites — will yield important clues about whom the president sees as threatening to his rule.

A coup isn’t over, even if conspirators fail

Once launched, a coup attempt ushers in a crisis rulers cannot afford to ignore. Embaló’s predicament is reminiscent of Yahya Jammeh, the former ruler of neighboring Gambia.…  Seguir leyendo »