Josh Cohen

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A crew lines up on the Kuzbass nuclear submarine during a rehearsal for the Navy Day parade in the far eastern port of Vladivostok, Russia, July 30, 2016. REUTERS/Yuri Maltsev

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Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia was ready to fully restore relations with the United States following the election of Donald Trump. But even so, when Trump assumes power on Jan. 20, he will inherit a Russian-American relationship in deep crisis.

While Washington and Moscow’s disagreements over Ukraine, Syria, NATO and Russian cyber hacking received the majority of attention during the presidential campaign, both Trump and his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton  ignored perhaps the greatest threat of all from the downturn in U.S.-Russian relations: the rise of nuclear tensions. And unless both Washington and Moscow take steps to reverse what one Russian analyst calls “a creeping crisis over the international arms control regime,” the risks of a nuclear confrontation somewhere in the world will increase dramatically.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Since Russian-American relations spiraled downwards after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, analysts and politicians have begun to raise the once unthinkable: the advent of Cold War Two. Both American and Russian commentators have declared “Welcome to Cold War Two,” while NATO’s retiring supreme allied commander, Europe stated that “trying to prevent a Cold War” was now his successor’s responsibility. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev went one step further, arguing “one could go so far as to say we have slid back to a new Cold War.”

So is a new Cold War underway? On the surface some similarities exist. Russian jets buzz U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

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“An attempt by Russia and Iran to prop up Assad and try to pacify the population is just going to get them stuck in a quagmire and it won’t work.” So said U.S. President Barack Obama when Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his military campaign in Syria to support the country’s authoritarian ruler.

There’s just one problem, though: A day after Putin announced a Russian withdrawal from Syria, it’s clear that his gamble has turned into a major win for Moscow. Here’s what Russia achieved — and why it was so successful.

First — and most importantly — Russian bombing turned the tide of the war in Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s favor.…  Seguir leyendo »

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It was a clash with ominous Cold War overtones. Turkey’s recent destruction of a Russian Su-24 jet was the first time in 63 years a NATO jet shot down a Russian one. Although Ankara claimed the jet was in Turkish territory, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Turkey of a “stab in the back”and being “accomplices of terrorists.”

Putin subsequently cancelled Russian energy projects in Turkey, and also banned the import of Turkish fruit and vegetables. What Putin said next, though, should send chills down Turkish spines.

In comments during his annual state of the nation speech, Putin implied Russia might use force against Turkey: “We shall remind them many a time what they have done and they will more than once feel regret what they have done,” said Putin.…  Seguir leyendo »

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When Russia began its military campaign in Syria, the Obama administration and its allies quickly claimed it was a disaster in the making. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper called Russian President Vladimir Putin “impulsive” and said he was “winging it” in Syria with no long-term strategy. Former United States Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul ridiculed Putin’s “supposed strategic genius,” arguing the Russian leader “cannot restore Assad’s authority over the whole country.” Even President Barack Obama joined the chorus, publicly warning Putin that he risked an Afghanistan-style Russian “quagmire” in Syria.

It turns out, though, that the joke’s on Washington: Thanks to shrewd tactics plus tailwinds from the Paris attacks, Syria is turning into a major strategic victory for Putin.…  Seguir leyendo »

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As Russia’s bombing campaign in Syria drags on, a number of commentators have suggested that President Vladimir Putin’s bold move could drag Russia into an Afghan-style quagmire. This negative outcome is far from guaranteed, however, and Putin holds more cards than his critics realize. Russia may well achieve its core military objectives in Syria — while the United States cannot.

Here’s how Putin might achieve his ideal outcome in Syria.

To start, a key strength of Russia’s Syrian military strategy is its simplicity. Today the Russian bombing campaign seeks only to stabilize the Syrian regime’s lines around the key corridor running north from Damascus through Homs and Hama.…  Seguir leyendo »

Ukraine’s voluntary militia called the Azov Battalion holds artillery training in east Ukraine, west of the port city of Mariupol on the Azov Sea, March 19, 2015. REUTERS/Marko Djurica

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While the ceasefire agreement between the Ukrainian government and separatist rebels in the eastern part of the country seems largely to be holding, a recent showdown in Kiev between a Ukrainian oligarch and the government revealed one of the country’s ongoing challenges: private military battalions that do not always operate under the central government’s control.

In March, members of the private army backed by tycoon Ihor Kolomoisky showed up at the headquarters of the state-owned oil company, UkrTransNafta. The standoff occurred after Kiev fired the company’s chief executive officer — an ally of Kolomoisky’s. Kolomoisky said that he was trying to protect the company from an illegal takeover.…  Seguir leyendo »

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As the crisis in Ukraine drags on, U.S.-Russia relations continue to deteriorate. The United States has just taken a step that risks bringing that relationship to a new low.

As part of its effort to support Ukraine, the U.S. military recently sent 290 troops from the 173rd Airborne Brigade based in Vicenza, Italy, to train the Ukrainian National Guard. In doing so, President Barack Obama is responding to widespread political pressure to “do something,” choosing a middle ground between doing nothing on the one hand — or, on the other, embroiling the United States more deeply in the conflict by sending billions of dollars of lethal weaponry to Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »