Jude Blanchette

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Soldiers marching in Taoyuan, Taiwan July 2023. Ann Wang / Reuters

MundoAsia, ,

As debate over China policy rages in the United States, the discussion in Washington is increasingly focused on the question of how to deter Beijing from invading or blockading Taiwan. This is for good reason: like their predecessors, Chinese President Xi Jinping and his colleagues have signaled a determination to exercise control over Taiwan and will, if necessary, resort to force to do so. Responding to these threats, a growing number of U.S. military leaders—including the former head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Phil Davidson, and Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Mike Gilday—have warned that China could attack Taiwan by 2027.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Taiwan Long Game

MundoAsia, ,

For 70 years, China and the United States have managed to avoid disaster over Taiwan. But a consensus is forming in U.S. policy circles that this peace may not last much longer. Many analysts and policymakers now argue that the United States must use all its military power to prepare for war with China in the Taiwan Strait. In October 2022, Mike Gilday, the head of the U.S. Navy, warned that China might be preparing to invade Taiwan before 2024. Members of Congress, including Democratic Representative Seth Moulton and Republican Representative Mike Gallagher, have echoed Gilday’s sentiment.

There are sound rationales for the United States to focus on defending Taiwan.…  Seguir leyendo »

Xi Jinping lining up with other CCP Politburo Standing Committee members in Beijing, October 2017. Jason Lee / Reuters

MundoAsia

On October 16, the Chinese Communist Party will begin its 20th National Congress, the highest-level and most important assembly of China’s senior political and military leadership. Past party congresses have been important inflection points in the development of the party and the country. The Eighth Party Congress, in 1956, saw the removal of Mao Zedong Thought (which had enshrined the revolutionary leader’s ideology) from the party’s constitution, a temporary setback for Mao after a series of policy and political mistakes. At the 14th Party Congress, in 1992, the leadership unveiled the term “socialist market economy” to signal a reorientation of economic policy in the wake of the CCP’s violent crackdown on protesters in Tiananmen Square in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union two years later.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsiaInternacionalOrden Mundial

In the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Beijing was on the back foot. For weeks after Russian troops crossed Ukraine’s border, China’s messaging was stilted and confused as Chinese diplomats, propagandists, and foreign ministry spokespeople themselves tried to figure out Chinese President Xi Jinping’s line on the conflict. Xi’s “no limits” partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin was incurring growing reputational costs.

Almost six months after the war’s outbreak and with no end in sight, Beijing has largely regained its footing. Its early concerns that the war would significantly increase overall European defense spending have yet to materialize. Although China would prefer the war to end with a clear Russian victory, a second-best option would be to see the United States and Europe exhaust their supplies of military equipment in support of Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »