Julia Cournoyer

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French submarine 'Le Terrible' at sea during a visit by French President Emmanuel Macron to the vessel in 2017. (Photo by FRED TANNEAU/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

EuropaUnión EuropeaDefensa y Seguridad

The Trump administration’s hostile rhetoric towards Europe, including remarks about potentially withdrawing or relocating US troops stationed there, has reignited debates about Europe’s nuclear deterrence.

Europeans are worried that the US might even go as far as withdrawing the nuclear weapons stationed there as part of its extended deterrence agreement with NATO.

That guarantee dates back to 1949 and includes US nuclear weapons kept on European territory. It is important to note that, despite its insistence on Europeans providing their own security, the US has not so far suggested withdrawing US nuclear weapons from Europe, or made any practical moves to signal this.…  Seguir leyendo »

Biden–Xi meeting: A must-win in high stakes diplomacy

MundoAméricaMundoAsia,

Wednesday’s Biden–Xi meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco carried an agenda as massive as the stakes. Presidents Biden and Xi reached important agreements, notably restoring high-level military-to-military communications. This four-hour meeting was not just another diplomatic rendezvous; it was a critical juncture to mend a bilateral relationship that has frayed to its thinnest in decades.

Biden and Xi’s last meeting, on the sidelines of last year’s G20 Summit in November 2022, was soon overshadowed by a Chinese spy balloon that quelled any potential for further rapprochement. Now, having engaged in Wednesday’s pivotal talks amid a complex tapestry of global issues, it is essential for the US and China to avoid any ‘balloon-sized’ disruptions to forge meaningful progress going forward.…  Seguir leyendo »

US president Joe Biden (R) and South Korean president Yoon Suk-yeol arrive for a joint press conference in the Rose Garden at the White House, April 26, 2023 in Washington, DC. Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images.

Internacional

North Korea’s test of a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is just the latest incident at a time of heightened nuclear risk across the globe, coming alongside Iran’s near weapons-grade uranium enrichment and Russia’s plans to station nuclear weapons in Belarus.

The US has also announced plans to deploy nuclear-armed submarines in the Pacific after requests for security assurances from the Republic of Korea which is increasingly concerned about the threat from North Korea. This announcement comes just weeks after Russia announced the deployment of its own nuclear-armed submarines in the Pacific.

Such an alarming uptick in nuclear-related activities highlights the increasing salience of nuclear weapons in global politics and the problems in nuclear diplomacy, but the multilateral toolkit can still provide effective responses.…  Seguir leyendo »

Protests in Moscow against partial mobilization announced by Vladimir Putin, who said his promise to use all military means in Ukraine was 'no bluff' and hinted Moscow was prepared to use nuclear weapons. Photo by ALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP via Getty Images.

Europa, , , ,

Until now, Russian nuclear doctrine consistently stated Russia would only use nuclear weapons first should the existence of the state be threatened, rather than its ‘territorial integrity’.

However, the planned referenda which aim to annex parts of Ukraine would mean any Ukrainian attempts to reclaim that territory could then be framed as a threat to Russia’s territorial integrity.

The impact of nuclear weapons use would be grave and would require a strong response – and therefore could escalate quickly to become a large-scale regional war and possibly all-out nuclear war.

Nuclear war cannot be won

The Reagan-Gorbachev statement that ‘nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought’ has been restated by all five nuclear weapon states twice, once in January 2022 weeks before the invasion of Ukraine began, and again in early August 2022 at the start of the NPT Review Conference.…  Seguir leyendo »