Kataryna Wolczuk

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Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban prior to the start of a EU leaders summit at the European Council building in Brussels on 26 October 2023. Photo by LUDOVIC MARIN/AFP via Getty Images.

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The high-stakes EU summit in December 2023 resulted in accession negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova and candidate status for Georgia – thanks to a well-timed coffee break. As Hungary’s Victor Orban sought to derail the decision on Ukraine, he was invited by the leaders of the other 26 member states to take a coffee break. As Orban left the room, they got a consensus to open negotiations and he got the €10 billion that had been frozen over Hungary’s rule-of-law violations. He did however succeed in blocking €50 billion of aid to Ukraine – a lifeline for Ukraine’s war-torn economy.

There are three main takeaways from the summit.…  Seguir leyendo »

Arrivals at Manas International Airport near Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Many of Russia's workers from former Soviet states are coming home due to a weak Russian economy but may face even fewer job prospects. Photo by VYACHESLAV OSELEDKO/AFP via Getty Images.

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The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) – consisting of Russia with Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan – represents the culmination of Russia’s pursuit of regional integration with its post-Soviet neighbours.

Officially, the Union has an ambitious economic goal – the creation of a market based on common rules for its five member states and their 180 million citizens – and Russia likes to portray the EAEU as an Eurasian replica of the European Union (EU).

But although a common market was placed at the heart of the EAEU as a way to appeal to member states, it is of marginal importance for the Russian economy.…  Seguir leyendo »

The EU and Ukraine: Time for bold solidarity

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As the war still rages, and despite significant moves to support Ukraine militarily, the weaknesses of the European Union (EU) have been once again exposed.

At a time when Ukraine now looks likely to drop any future applications to join NATO in an attempt to attain a ceasefire and a withdrawal of Russian troops, EU member states are still divided over Ukraine’s application, leaving the EU as a whole unable to respond.

Granting full EU membership could take decades to accomplish in practice and is largely symbolic – but acknowledging it would send a powerful message of solidarity. In contrast, denying it gives the perception that Ukraine is being in effect abandoned by its ‘European family’.…  Seguir leyendo »

Here we go again: Russia’s energy ‘diplomacy’ in Moldova

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In October, Moldova came under the spotlight when Russia, its primary provider of gas, slashed supplies by a third and refused to extend the existing contract.

The crisis was resolved at the end of October when Russia and Moldova signed a new contract, in which Moscow has used Moldova’s gas dependence to extract geopolitical concessions, weaken the new pro-western Chisinau government and drive a wedge between the EU and Moldova.

A chronic failure to reform

Moldova became a classic case of state capture when political elites – including nominally pro-European political elites – engaged in massive rent-extraction.

Up until 2020, when pro-reform forces came to power, Moldovan politics offered rapid route to riches for both the nominally pro-European parties and the pro-Russian Socialist Party; each was responsible for playing up ethnic and geopolitical cleavages in the country to mobilize votes and shore up legitimacy.…  Seguir leyendo »

Volodymyr Zelenskyy attends a ceremony welcoming Ukrainians who were freed by pro-Russian rebels during a prisoner exchange. Photo: Getty Images.

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One of the key messages at the heart of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s presidential campaign in 2019 was a very simple one: peace in Donbas, the war-torn region of Ukraine where Russian-supported separatists continue to fight a war against the Kyiv government. Zelenskyy’s message was based on the assumption that if a ceasefire could be respected, and all Ukrainian prisoners-of-war could return home, then peace would have been achieved.

Nine months after Zelenskyy’s inauguration and two months after his first Normandy Four summit (which brings together Germany and France with Ukraine and Russia to discuss Donbas), it appears more likely that this approach will lead Ukraine into a Russian trap.…  Seguir leyendo »

EU and Ukraine flags in Lviv town hall. Photo via Getty Images.

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Since the Euromaidan revolution in the winter of 2013–14, the EU has adopted a significantly more strategic approach to reform in Ukraine, in order to address fundamental weaknesses within Ukrainian state institutions.

The EU Commission of 2014–19 launched a number of major innovations to support Ukraine, which represented a step-change in EU support for domestic reforms in a neighbouring country.

The most significant of these was the creation of the Support Group for Ukraine (SGUA), a special taskforce for delivering assistance and supporting Ukraine, which became operational during Jean-Claude Juncker presidency of the Commission. The SGUA, led by Peter Wagner since 2016, consists of 35-40 officials who have developed an in-depth knowledge of Ukraine and have experimented with new approaches in supporting reforms.…  Seguir leyendo »

Poland's Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski and his counterpart from Ukraine Pavlo Klimkin meet in Warsaw in March. Photo: Getty Images.

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Since the launch of the Eastern Partnership in 2009, Poland has been the most important member state in driving the engagement with the EU’s eastern neighbours: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. But as the 4th bi-annual summit begins, Poland has seemingly abandoned its former policy, risking the political and economic development of these important partners, and in particular, the stability and integrity of Ukraine.

At the operational level, Polish diplomats and experts continue to contribute: Poland has the most impressive expertise on the post-Soviet countries in Europe and many think-tanks are working hard to promote closer ties. But the Polish political leadership is not only hesitant to promote the policy, it has seemed at times directly antagonistic to it, by, for example, re-stoking historical tensions with Ukraine, traditionally the most important of these relationships.…  Seguir leyendo »

An anti-government protester raises a European flag at the Maidan in Kyiv on 9 December 2013. Photo: Getty Images.

Europa

The mass protests of 2014 put the EU in the centre of reform efforts in Ukraine. The Association Agreement, support of which was the locus of the initial demonstrations, has become the blueprint for the country’s reformers, who believe that pursuing integration with the EU offers Ukraine the best (and only) pathway for modernization and economic growth.

But there is a mismatch between the very political impact of the reforms required by the Association Agreement and the technocratic approach the EU takes to such issues. This disconnect is putting Ukraine’s chances for a more European future in jeopardy.

A big job

There is some recognition on the part of the EU about the daunting task the implementation of the agreement presents.…  Seguir leyendo »

An employee walks through the scrap metal area at the Zaporizhstal steel plant in Ukraine on 14 October 2013. Photo via Getty Images.

EuropaUnión EuropeaEconomía,

Yesterday, President Vladimir Putin ordered the abolition of Russia’s free trade regime with Ukraine. He had been threatening to do so since 2011 as a response to the harm Russia claimed it would suffer from the implementation of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) between Ukraine and the EU. To avert this scenario, last year the EU and Ukraine agreed to suspend the DCFTA until December 2015 and initiate trilateral negotiations.

In essence, Russia’s objections to Ukraine’s DCFTA are political rather than economic. The allegations of economic harm resulting from the DCFTA remain poorly justified and spurious. Trade problems lend themselves to resolution through, for example, the application of the WTO’s rules of origin requirements.…  Seguir leyendo »