Leslie Vinjamuri (Continuación)

A US soldier stands with a bouquet of flowers among headstones of those killed during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan in Section 60 of Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Virginia. Photo by Samuel Corum/Getty Images.

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Afghanistan goals were laudable but open-ended

Sir Simon Fraser

The outcome in Afghanistan should not have been a surprise, even if the way it happened was a shock. For foreign policy in general, and foreign military interventions in particular, it is essential to be clear about goals and the capacity to deliver. In Afghanistan, the US and its allies have fallen short on both these counts.

This is a serious reversal for the US and its closest allies, but not a strategic disaster. The threat from Islamist terror will increase, but its significance is sometimes exaggerated and, to some extent, can be addressed by other means.…  Seguir leyendo »

Afghans queue to board a US military aircraft to leave Afghanistan at the military airport in Kabul after the Taliban's takeover. Photo by SHAKIB RAHMANI/AFP via Getty Images.

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The urgent humanitarian crisis unfolding in Afghanistan is of the utmost priority, so getting distracted by a blame game risks a dire situation getting worse and further undermines the credibility of the US and European commitment to protecting democracy and human rights.

Since Kabul fell to the Taliban, the ground for political debate has been moving quickly – the ‘first order’ debate about whether the US should have stayed in Afghanistan already feels remote, and now the search is on to understand the US failure to predict the Taliban’s rapid takeover of Afghanistan.

Claims are widespread that senior State Department officials were warned Kabul could collapse if US troops withdrew and that the CIA provided evidence of the Taliban’s growing strength – all providing fodder to partisan division.…  Seguir leyendo »

President Joe Biden addresses a Joint Session of Congress, with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Vice President Kamala Harris behind on the dais. Photo by Melina Mara - Pool/Getty Images.

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Memories are short. Just a few months ago, the world watched as Capitol Hill was invaded by Donald Trump loyalists. America’s political landscape felt on the verge of collapse, especially with more than 70 per cent of Republican voters saying they did not believe the recent presidential election was fairly conducted.

On the same day as the attacks, the lethal spread of COVID-19 continued as more than 3,800 Americans died – and similar numbers died each day that week with no end in sight. By the date of Joe Biden’s inauguration, Trump had been impeached for a second time and life beyond America’s borders did not look rosy, with the US on guard in the Middle East as tensions intensified with Iran over the Persian Gulf and Russia’s Solar Winds cyberattacks unfolded.…  Seguir leyendo »

An honour guard ahead of the US-Japan defence ministers bilateral meeting on March 16, 2021 at the Japan Ministry of Defense in Tokyo. Photo by DAVID MAREUIL/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

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A week of highly choreographed and carefully sequenced diplomacy in Asia culminated with a meeting of the United States Secretary of State, the US National Security Advisor and their Chinese counterparts in Anchorage, Alaska. Chatham House experts analyse the outcome.

Defining moment in global divide between democracy and autocracy

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

The Biden administration executed the week with laser precision to draw a circle around Asia’s leading democracies, deepen its alliances, underscore its commitment to democracy and human rights, and mount a defence of the rules-based order.

It has become crystal clear the global divide between democracy and autocracy is going to define America’s relationship with China, as well as underpinning the entirety of its approach to the Indo-Pacific region.…  Seguir leyendo »

Boris Johnson chairs a session of the UN Security Council on climate and security at the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office in London. Photo by Stefan Rousseau - WPA Pool/Getty Images.

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When Joe Biden was elected as US president, many observers thought the UK would struggle to establish a close relationship with him, and that British diplomats feared being sidelined by the new administration – especially as Biden had referred to British prime minister Boris Johnson as a ‘physical and emotional clone’ of Donald Trump.

The UK’s main priority was to secure a free trade deal with the United States, but the Biden team had made it clear this would not be a priority for them. However, just over one month into the Biden administration, there has been a remarkable alignment between the UK and US.…  Seguir leyendo »

Jogging by the Hudson River during sunrise in New York, United States. Photo by Islam Dogru/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

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After four years watching and wondering whether America had permanently vacated its role as a global leader, the rest of the world has witnessed an almost dizzying number of steps taken early on by the Biden administration to restore its international standing.

In the first month of his presidency, Joe Biden has taken the US back into the Paris climate accords and the World Health Organization (WHO), rejoined the United Nations Human Rights Council – albeit with a downgraded status to that of observer until the next election – and ended the travel ban placed on several Muslim-majority countries.

The US is now processing asylum claims and allowing asylum seekers to cross the southern border into the US, while Biden has also pledged $2 billion in support for COVAX, the global plan to ensure equitable distribution of a vaccine, followed by another $2 billion over two years.…  Seguir leyendo »

Capitol police stand to attention for a motorcade carrying the body of fellow officer Brian Sicknick after lying in honour at the Rotunda in Washington. Photo by Caroline Brehman/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images.

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The Senate trial of Donald Trump less than three weeks after the inauguration of President Joe Biden has ignited controversy across the US. Many say the trial will do more harm than good, further dividing an electorate and a political establishment already deeply polarized. But intense division in the face of calls to prosecute a head of state, sitting or former, is not uncommon.

Democracy in the US has undoubtedly been under assault but it is strong enough to withstand these challenges and the benefits of accountability far outweigh the costs. So it is a good thing that, as a first step, the Senate trial is proceeding even if the practical benefit may seem difficult to discern given that democracy in America worked – Donald Trump was defeated at the ballot box and has left office.…  Seguir leyendo »

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are briefed by expert members of their national security and foreign policy agency review teams in December 2020. Photo by Mark Makela/Getty Images.

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Democracy Must Work at Home First

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

US democracy has been vividly on display and scrutinized by the world for the entirety of Trump’s presidency. In the years ahead, the global balance of democratic and authoritarian values will be shaped not only by US leadership abroad but especially by the ability of the Biden administration to fix America’s democracy.

Today, the US is wracked by internal division and the distribution of economic opportunities and benefits across society is radically unequal. Confidence in the leadership, the electoral system, and the capacity of the state to deliver has taken a serious hit.…  Seguir leyendo »

Vice president-elect Kamala Harris addresses the media on November 10, 2020 at the Queen Theater in Wilmington, Delaware. Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images.

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1. Resistance to Biden is likely

Hans Kundnani

The result of the election made it clear America has not rejected ‘Trumpism’ and remains deeply polarized. Donald Trump remains an important figure within the Republican Party, and perhaps even its leader.

Some senior figures in the party support his efforts to convey the impression the election was ‘stolen’ from them, and analysts such as Max Boot and Timothy Snyder are even comparing this to the Dolchstosslegende (myth of a stab in the back) in Germany after World War I.

Assuming Joe Biden does take over as president on 20 January, the question is what form any ‘resistance’ to his administration takes.…  Seguir leyendo »

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The authors of this collection consider the most pressing foreign policy challenges for the next US president, and examine how the outcome of the 2020 election will affect these.

The president will determine how the US’s diplomatic, economic and military resources are invested, and what value the administration will attach to existing alliances and multilateral institutions.

Whoever sits in the White House will shape the trajectory of the US–China relationship and the global economy after the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as international cooperation on climate action, international trade and technology policy, and health.

Sumary

  • The last four years have confirmed that the choices the US makes are highly consequential for international politics.
…  Seguir leyendo »

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Experts across Chatham House shared their views on Trump and Biden’s performance and their key takeaways from the last debate. More than 47 million Americans have already cast their vote and few voters are undecided, but the debates still provide a good lens into these two very different candidates.

Throughout the presidential race, there have been concerns regarding foreign interference in the election. How did candidates respond to this threat?

Leslie Vinjamuri: The candidates deflected the question, but it could not have been more timely. Only two days ago, John Ratcliffe, the director of national intelligence, and Christopher A. Wray, the FBI director, announced that Iran and Russia had obtained voter registration data and used this to send threatening emails to voters.…  Seguir leyendo »

People watch the first presidential debate between US President Donald Trump and Former US Vice President Joe Biden on 29 September 2020 in Hoboken, New Jersey. Photo: Getty Images.

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What role do the presidential debates serve in encouraging voter turnout?

Leslie Vinjamuri: Going into the debates, 74% of Americans were set to tune in and watch according to a new Monmouth Poll. This is striking since more than 90% have already decided who their candidate will be, and many have already cast their ballots.

During President Donald Trump’s time in office, Americans have been far more politically engaged than in previous periods. A record 49.3% of the voting eligible population turned out to vote in the 2018 midterm elections, according to the United States Election Project. This was the highest voter turnout since 1914, and it also reversed a downward trend.…  Seguir leyendo »

Senator Kamala Harris speaks during a Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs hearing. Photo by ALEXANDER DRAGO/POOL/AFP via Getty Images.

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Despite being such a historic selection, in certain aspects, Kamala Harris does not actually signal change. She is a moderate in the Democratic Party, an insider more than an outsider, and a highly experienced leader with national, state level and city level credentials. She worked as a district attorney in San Francisco for several years before being elected attorney general for the state of California, and then to the US Senate in 2016. Harris also stood as a candidate against Biden in the contest to become the Democratic Party's presidential candidate.

Like Joe Biden, she is a highly experienced leader with strong credentials.…  Seguir leyendo »

A man walks past a bag printed with the portrait of China's revolutionary leader Mao Tse-tung on display outside a shop in Hong Kong. Photo by PHILIPPE LOPEZ/AFP via Getty Images.

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Harder Line Could Accelerate Animosity with China

Coronavirus has dramatically reshaped the political and economic context for the US foreign policy debate. With more than 20 million Americans unemployed - and an unemployment rate above 13% - more than 125,000 deaths and the rate of infections continuing to climb across the south and south-west, and President Donald Trump polling more than 8% behind Joe Biden, it is hardly surprising that China and its role both in the pandemic and in the US economy continues to dominate foreign policy discussions.

In both the United States and Europe, the severity of the health and economic crisis driven by the pandemic has raised the stakes for policy on China and - especially in the UK, Germany, France and the wider EU - is tipping the balance towards those who advocate for a harder line on China.…  Seguir leyendo »

Denver police chief Paul Pazen marches arm and arm with peaceful protesters during a protest over the death of George Floyd. Photo by RJ Sangosti/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images.

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The demand for national leadership to unite a clearly passionate and divided United States could not be higher, but President Donald Trump is instead adopting tactics that are inflaming division and risk greater instability and violence.

The president’s demand that governors ‘dominate’ protesters was shored up by the use of tear gas by police to disperse lawful protesters outside the White House, and his decision to deploy US military troops across the United States all signal a dangerous embrace of law and order tactics that mimic the authoritarian leaders Trump has long admired.

But in a nation defined by a well-honed expectation of the right to civil disobedience and political protest, and an unparalleled embrace of individual freedoms, the president’s tactics could backfire, triggering an escalation of violence and furthering America’s domestic political and economic crisis.…  Seguir leyendo »

Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron and other EU leaders speaking to the media. Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images.

ReflexionesDemocracia,

Although there are plenty of signs that strongmen leaders have used the crisis to try to tighten their grip on power, the coronavirus has revealed the underlying vulnerabilities of autocracies rather than their strength. In contrast, democracies are showing their capacity for innovation and adaptation, as one would expect, and signs of renewal, as one would hope.

At first look, the situation is not positive for democracies. The countries worst-hit by COVID-19 as measured in deaths per capita are mostly democracies, including Britain, Belgium, Italy, Spain and the United States. In most cases, erroneous or slow decision-making proved fatal when combined with stressed health systems and pockets of high social inequality.…  Seguir leyendo »

Exercising in front of a deserted Lincoln Memorial in Washington, DC. Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images.

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As the US surgeon general warns Americans to brace for ‘our Pearl Harbor moment’, the US faces a week in which it may see the worst of the global pandemic. The absence of US leadership at the global level has enabled the Security Council’s inaction. And at the G7, President Trump actively obstructed efforts to agree a joint statement.

US efforts to increase its support of international aid to the tune of $274million are minimal, not least in light of a 50% reduction in its support for the World Health Organization (WHO) and radically diminished support for other global health programmes as well.…  Seguir leyendo »

Harvard asked its students to move out of their dorms due to the coronavirus risk, with all classes moving online. Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images.

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As coronavirus spreads across the globe, states grapple to find the ideal strategy for coping with the global pandemic. And, in China, Singapore, South Korea, the US, the UK, and Europe, divergent policies are a product of state capacity and legal authority, but they also reveal competing views about the optimal role of centralised state authority, federalism, and the private sector.

Although it is too soon to know the longer-term effects, the apparent capacity of centralised state authority in China, South Korea and Singapore to respond effectively and rapidly is making headlines. In the United States, the opposite has been true.…  Seguir leyendo »

Mike Pompeo meets Boris Johnson in London on 30 January. Photo: Getty Images.

Europa, ,

In the face of multiple competing pressures, most especially intense pressure by the US president and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the UK government has carved out an independent choice on the role that Huawei will play in its 5G mobile networks. Announced just days before the UK exited the European Union, a move designed to allow the UK to reclaim its sovereignty, this was a model example of a sovereign decision, but one that carries risk and will create ongoing uncertainty.

The government’s assessment is that this will bolster Britain’s economic competitiveness through a rapid rollout of its 5G mobile network while staving off pressure from the United States and economic retaliation from China.…  Seguir leyendo »

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On Thursday, the US House of Representatives passed a resolution affirming its authority under the War Powers Resolution Act, and reminding the president, the American people and the world that when it comes to the use of military force, Congress must be taken into account.

President Donald Trump replied by retweeting John Bolton, his former national security advisor, who tweeted that the War Powers Act was ‘unconstitutional’, effectively dismissing Congressional efforts to rein in the president.

This round of legal Twitter diplomacy came days after the president tweeted that ‘legal notice (to Congress) is not required, but it is given nevertheless’ and that ‘should Iran strike any US person or target, the United States will quickly and fully strike back, and perhaps in a disproportionate manner.’…  Seguir leyendo »