Lukas F. Stoetzer

Nota: Este archivo abarca los artículos publicados por el autor desde el 1 de septiembre de 2009. Para fechas anteriores realice una búsqueda entrecomillando su nombre.

German citizens head to the polling booths Sunday to vote for the German parliament, the Bundestag. A majority is expected to vote for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), returning the current Chancellor Angela Merkel to office for her fourth term.

But CDU isn’t expected to win an outright majority, and will therefore have to build a coalition government. So which other parties will gain enough seats to join Merkel in governing?

Here’s what our team of political scientists from Mannheim, Berlin and Zurich have concluded from our forecasting project zweitstimme.org.

As of Friday, two days before election day, our final forecast for the party vote shares is as follows: the allied CDU and Bavaria’s Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) at 35.7 percent, Social Democrats at 22.4 percent, the Left at 9.5 percent, the Greens at 7.8 percent, the Free Democratic Party at 9.3 percent, and Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 10.8 percent.…  Seguir leyendo »