Marianne Stewart

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Conservatives won big in the U.K. election — for these two reasons

Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his governing Conservative Party won a convincing victory in last week’s U.K. general election. The Conservatives captured 365 seats, sufficient for a solid majority in Parliament and fully 48 more than the 317 seats they won in the 2017 general election. Their main rival, Labour, fared poorly. Recording its worst performance in decades, Labour was reduced to 203 seats, down from 262 in 2017. What accounts for the election outcome?

Two major arguments have been offered why the Conservatives did so well and Labour, so poorly. The first is that the election was “all about Brexit.”…  Seguir leyendo »

At long last, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has managed to schedule a general election for Dec. 12. The result will decide not only the fate of Johnson and his governing Conservative Party but also whether the new Parliament will pass his Brexit deal.

What are the Conservatives' chances of gaining the number of seats they need to form a majority government? We see four possible scenarios.

1. Current polling results give the Conservatives a comfortable majority.

Right now, polls put the Conservatives on track to win a comfortable majority of 357 seats; 326 are needed for a majority. If these numbers hold, their principal rival, the Labour Party, will capture only 198 seats, a large falloff from the 262 the party won in 2017.…  Seguir leyendo »

Outcome of 2019 U.K. election with Labour-Liberal Democrat tactical voting, and 50 percent of Brexit Party supporters moving to the Conservatives. Prepared by authors using analyses of polling data and 2017 general election results.

The “Battle of Brexit” has left British politics in chaos. After Boris Johnson became leader of the governing Conservative Party on July 23, he promised to take the United Kingdom out of the European Union by Oct. 31, “do or die.” To achieve this, he prorogued (suspended) Parliament and wants to hold a general election.

Opposition politicians, assisted by Conservative rebel MPs and Speaker John Bercow, have thwarted Johnson’s efforts, promising to not let the United Kingdom leave the E.U. without a deal. They maintain they will allow an election only after the Oct. 31 deadline has passed. Some time in November seems likely.…  Seguir leyendo »