Marion Messmer

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General view of HMS Vigilant, which carries the UK's Trident nuclear deterrent on April 29, 2019 in Faslane, Scotland. (Photo by James Glossop - WPA Pool/Getty Images)

Europa,

The Trump administration’s volatile approach to its allies has forced the UK to reconsider fundamental pillars of its defence policy, including whether it can rely on the US. This extends even to the UK’s nuclear deterrent, with many questioning whether the UK needs a nuclear weapons system that is less dependent on the US for maintenance and support.

Unlike most US allies in NATO, the UK is officially a nuclear weapons state, and therefore less reliant on Washington’s nuclear extended deterrence guarantee. It has its own nuclear weapons system, Trident, which is based in Britain and ostensibly operates independently.

However, Trident is closely linked to the US’s nuclear programme, raising concerns about its independence.…  Seguir leyendo »

French submarine 'Le Terrible' at sea during a visit by French President Emmanuel Macron to the vessel in 2017. (Photo by FRED TANNEAU/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

EuropaUnión EuropeaDefensa y Seguridad

The Trump administration’s hostile rhetoric towards Europe, including remarks about potentially withdrawing or relocating US troops stationed there, has reignited debates about Europe’s nuclear deterrence.

Europeans are worried that the US might even go as far as withdrawing the nuclear weapons stationed there as part of its extended deterrence agreement with NATO.

That guarantee dates back to 1949 and includes US nuclear weapons kept on European territory. It is important to note that, despite its insistence on Europeans providing their own security, the US has not so far suggested withdrawing US nuclear weapons from Europe, or made any practical moves to signal this.…  Seguir leyendo »

Polish Navy ORP Slazak vessel is seen in Gdynia, Poland on 25 June 2023 (Photo by Michal Fludra/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

InternacionalOTAN

Since Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO, the narrative around Baltic security among alliance members has been almost triumphant. The Baltic Sea has been described as a ‘ NATO lake’ and various Baltic countries have celebrated the increase in their security.

However, Russia’s recent activity in the Baltic shows that NATO members need to remain vigilant in the region, and even strengthen their defences.

Increasingly paranoid about NATO’s intentions, Russia is likely to push back against the alliance in the Baltic. In the process it could significantly increase the risk of escalation, as it uses its hybrid playbook to test NATO’s defences – and conduct acts of sabotage where there is plausible deniability.…  Seguir leyendo »

The nuclear talks could lay the groundwork for crucial agreement on risk reduction

MundoAméricaMundoAsia, ,

After many years of fruitless ‘talks about talks’, China and the US have just met in Washington for what is hoped to be the first in a series of discussions on nuclear arms control, the first since the Obama administration.

The meetings, said to be at the ‘working level’, will likely focus on developing a new approach based on increasing transparency and risk reduction rather than on numbers and inspections. It is hoped that this discussion will feed into a high-level meeting between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in San Francisco later in November.

Until now, China has resisted attempts to enter into talks with the US on either a trilateral (with Russia) or bilateral basis, saying that until the US and Russia reduce their numbers down to China’s level – or until China’s build-up matches the numbers of Russia and the US – they would not join the talks.…  Seguir leyendo »

Why a stalling NPT is a wake-up call for global security

InternacionalOrden Mundial

Since 2010, there has been a glaring lack of consensus on the way forward for the NPT. Following the failure of the 2015 Review Conference, the 2022 conference ended without agreement as Russia blocked consensus on the negotiated outcome document.

While states have often been able to isolate the treaty from other political issues, this has become increasingly harder as international tensions have increased. This poses significant risks for the global non-proliferation regime with some states increasing their interest in acquiring nuclear weapons.

Nuclear crises intensifying

Since its inception in 1970, the NPT has not only established the global baseline for access to a spectrum of peaceful nuclear technologies, including radiological cancer treatments, nuclear medicine including diagnostics, agricultural applications of nuclear energy, and civil nuclear power production, while also mandating the NPT Nuclear Weapons States (UK, France, USA, Russia and China) to make progress towards disarmament.…  Seguir leyendo »

US president Joe Biden (R) and South Korean president Yoon Suk-yeol arrive for a joint press conference in the Rose Garden at the White House, April 26, 2023 in Washington, DC. Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images.

Internacional

North Korea’s test of a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is just the latest incident at a time of heightened nuclear risk across the globe, coming alongside Iran’s near weapons-grade uranium enrichment and Russia’s plans to station nuclear weapons in Belarus.

The US has also announced plans to deploy nuclear-armed submarines in the Pacific after requests for security assurances from the Republic of Korea which is increasingly concerned about the threat from North Korea. This announcement comes just weeks after Russia announced the deployment of its own nuclear-armed submarines in the Pacific.

Such an alarming uptick in nuclear-related activities highlights the increasing salience of nuclear weapons in global politics and the problems in nuclear diplomacy, but the multilateral toolkit can still provide effective responses.…  Seguir leyendo »

Relying on weak intelligence for invading Iraq has had a negative impact on US and UK credibility with several consequences that persist to this day.

MundoOriente Próximo,

20 years on from the fateful decision to invade Iraq, it is generally accepted that the US and UK governments overstated the evidence available for them to justify military action. The central claim to defend invading Iraq was that the country had continued its illicit nuclear weapons programme and had retained illegal stockpiles of biological and chemical weapons. None of these claims supported an imminent threat justification nor could any hidden caches of WMD be found by the US Iraq Survey Group after the invasion.

In the US, President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney hinted at additional evidence which could not be shared publicly to suggest that if only people knew what the government knew, they would agree that Iraq posed a significant threat to the West and needed to be disarmed.…  Seguir leyendo »

Europa,

Easy to miss in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech to parliament last week was a glancing reference to the possibility of Russia resuming nuclear testing.

In a surprise move, Putin said that Russia was ready to resume nuclear weapons tests if the US conducted one first.

While most of the media focus has been on Russia suspending its participation in the New START nuclear arms treaty, this announcement was just as significant, with potentially devastating consequences.

It would signify a further step towards escalation in Ukraine by demonstrating Russia’s intent to use nuclear weapons and could begin another, more devastating, nuclear arms race.…  Seguir leyendo »

Protests in Moscow against partial mobilization announced by Vladimir Putin, who said his promise to use all military means in Ukraine was 'no bluff' and hinted Moscow was prepared to use nuclear weapons. Photo by ALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP via Getty Images.

Europa, , , ,

Until now, Russian nuclear doctrine consistently stated Russia would only use nuclear weapons first should the existence of the state be threatened, rather than its ‘territorial integrity’.

However, the planned referenda which aim to annex parts of Ukraine would mean any Ukrainian attempts to reclaim that territory could then be framed as a threat to Russia’s territorial integrity.

The impact of nuclear weapons use would be grave and would require a strong response – and therefore could escalate quickly to become a large-scale regional war and possibly all-out nuclear war.

Nuclear war cannot be won

The Reagan-Gorbachev statement that ‘nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought’ has been restated by all five nuclear weapon states twice, once in January 2022 weeks before the invasion of Ukraine began, and again in early August 2022 at the start of the NPT Review Conference.…  Seguir leyendo »

Gender, Think-Tanks and International Affairs

ReflexionesSocial

Compiled by staff at Chatham House, the Centre for Feminist Foreign Policy and the British American Security Information Council, the toolkit provides think-tanks with guidance on ways of adapting organizational structures, activities and practices in order to embed greater awareness of gender issues and adopt gender-sensitive approaches throughout their work.

The toolkit is designed for all people working in international affairs think-tanks, regardless of role, experience or level of seniority. It will be particularly useful for those think-tanks that are just beginning the process of raising greater awareness of gender issues internally, as well as for those that have already begun to make changes but wish to expand this work further.…  Seguir leyendo »