Marvin Zonis

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MundoOriente Próximo

This miserable autocrat who kills his own people and bombs his own cities and has done so since March 2011 will fall. When? Who knows? Not today. Not tomorrow. But his fall will come. Then we will wish Bashar Assad were back.

We will wish he were back because the institutions of Syria, largely built by Hafez Assad, Bashar's father, will collapse along with the Assad regime.

Syria will become an anarchist's paradise. With no central state, the militias now fighting the regime will fight each other, seeking to control territory, expand their bases and control the center.

The most likely winners will be the Islamists.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

Iranian negotiators will meet for a second time with representatives of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany on Wednesday in Baghdad. Guarded optimism surrounds the talks. That optimism and caution is appropriate. Many obstacles must be overcome between these talks and an agreement. Failure is a real possibility. But the stars appear to be aligning for progress.

Iran operates with a historical precedent for reaching an agreement. In July 1988, Iraq, after eight years of war with Iran, launched strategic air raids against Iran's industrial plants and began sending rockets into Tehran. The rockets caused little damage but generated panic, leading Iranians by the thousands to flee the city.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo, , ,

Speculation over an Israeli bombing mission to destroy Iran's nuclear program is at fever pitch.

The consequences of such a strike would be staggering. Iran has vast retaliatory capacity. Missiles would be sent into oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. Hezbollah would launch thousands of missiles against Israel from southern Lebanon. Iran's proxies in Iraq would mount new terror campaigns against withdrawing American troops.

And these are just for starters.

Worse, any Israeli strike would set back Iran's program, but hardly end it. The key to any successful nuclear program is software — technical knowledge — not hardware. It is the hardware that Israel will destroy.…  Seguir leyendo »