Mary Stegmaier

Nota: Este archivo abarca los artículos publicados por el autor desde el 1 de julio de 2009. Para fechas anteriores realice una búsqueda entrecomillando su nombre.

On Monday morning, Polish President Andrzej Duda surprised everyone by vetoing two of three bills that would have curtailed judicial independence in Poland. Duda rejected the bill allowing the government to remove and replace Supreme Court justices, which passed both houses of parliament late last week and had prompted widespread protests. Tens of thousands of Poles across the country had engaged in daily protests as the president considered his decision over the weekend.

Most observers speculated that Duda, who aligns with the ruling Polish Law and Justice (PiS) party, would sign the bills into law. According to Article 122 of the Polish Constitution, the president has 21 days to make his decision.…  Seguir leyendo »

A bill now in Poland’s Parliament would destroy the judicial system’s independence and authority — and it’s likely to become law. In 2015, the far-right populist Polish Law and Justice (PiS) party won both the presidential and parliamentary elections. Since then — despite public protests and international pressure — PiS’s party leader Jarosław Kaczyński has steadily passed laws that have eroded Poland’s democratic system of government. The bill now being considered would eliminate the judicial branch’s role in the system of checks and balances — and would at last consolidate political power in the executive and legislative branches.

How is it that one man, who is neither president nor prime minister, has so much control?…  Seguir leyendo »

In April, when Prime Minister Theresa May announced that Britain would hold a snap election on June 8, it looked like her Conservative Party would claim a landslide victory. However, recent voter intention polls suggest that the race is tightening — and that the Conservatives could lose seats.

Our forecasting model, based on voter expectations of who will win, predicts that the Conservative Party actually will increase its majority, winning about 361 of the 650 seats in Parliament.

British pollsters have two big misses. They were off target on the 2015 parliamentary elections and the 2016 Brexit referendum. This demonstrates the challenges of voter intention polls: identifying who will turn out to vote, how “undecided voters” will vote and what constitutes a representative survey sample.…  Seguir leyendo »