Masha Lipman

For three months the approval ratings of Russia’s top leaders have declined — a trend that is generating talk here of a looming political crisis. Recently, two thinkers from the prominent Center for Strategic Research, Mikhail Dmitriev and Sergei Belanovsky, joined the ranks of the critics, calling for reforms that would generate a competitive political environment, restore public trust and improve economic policies.

For the time being, the Kremlin appears determined to maintain its monopoly on politics and policymaking and an economic model based on the centralized distribution of revenue from Russian resources. But public approval of Prime Minister Vladi­mir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev is indeed waning.…  Seguir leyendo »

Street protests are not uncommon in Russia, but with very few exceptions they are small and focused on local, socioeconomic issues. In the past month, however, calls for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to resign were heard at rallies in different parts of Russia. These events -- one organized in late January in Kaliningrad, on Russia's western border; the other last week in the Siberian city of Irkutsk -- were not related and are not likely to evolve into a national political movement. But such gatherings underscore the cracks in the Kremlin political system of centralized power, opaque decision-making and unaccountability.

The government is generally tolerant of small-time gatherings.…  Seguir leyendo »

On Friday, as Russia recognized its annual commemoration of political prisoners, President Dmitry Medvedev published a videoblog in which he condemned Joseph Stalin's crimes and called on the nation not to forget about past political repression or its victims. Medvedev called Stalin's repression "one of the greatest tragedies in Russian history" and expressed concern that "even today it can be heard that these mass victims were justified by certain higher goals of the state." He said that "no development of a country, none of its successes or ambitions can be reached at the price of human losses and grief." His statement, which led the state-controlled television news, was sharply at odds with official rhetoric of the past decade.…  Seguir leyendo »

From the start last week of the new trial of oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky and his business associate Platon Lebedev, it was clear that justice would be trampled -- just as it was in their first trial. The Khodorkovsky affair and its damage to Russia remain Vladimir Putin's legacy, but the outcome of this prosecution will shape the presidency of Putin's successor, Dmitry Medvedev. While Medvedev pledged to further the rule of law and judicial independence, after his first year in office there has been no progress on either.

Defense lawyers and legal experts call the case against Khodorkovsky and Lebedev absurd.…  Seguir leyendo »

Uncertainty is creeping up on Russia. For the first time since Vladimir Putin's rise to power, Moscow confronts the prospect of real political instability. One of Russia's savviest politicians, Anatoly Chubais, said last month that the likelihood of serious turmoil -- economic, social and even political -- is 50 percent.

The current crisis is global, and there is no sure way to forecast its length or depth. Such uncertainty would be disturbing in any country but is especially alarming here. For years, Putin steadily eliminated all political threats to his power, and by the end of his second term as president he enjoyed absolute authority.…  Seguir leyendo »

Nearly 86,000 people have signed a letter asking President Dmitry Medvedev to pardon Svetlana Bakhmina, a former lawyer for Mikhail Khodorkovsky's oil company, Yukos. Bakhmina, who is due to give birth within weeks, is in a prison camp in the province of Mordovia, about 400 miles southeast of Moscow.

Bakhmina's conviction and the entire affair with Yukos and Khodorkovsky, who was once Russia's richest man but has been jailed since 2003, have radically corrupted the Russian justice system. By not pardoning her, Medvedev emerges as a proponent of the Soviet system of justice, which presumed that any ties to an "enemy of the state" were themselves a crime.…  Seguir leyendo »

During Vladimir Putin's presidency, tight control of the mass media evolved as one of the Russian leadership's key political resources. It will be equally indispensable to newly inaugurated President Dmitry Medvedev.

To understand how journalism here changed under Putin, consider two book projects.

In 1999, Natalia Gevorkyan and Andrey Kolesnikov, two reporters at Russia's best daily newspaper, Kommersant, interviewed Putin for a book that was to introduce the president-to-be to the public. Excerpts printed in Kommersant before the book's publication revealed an angry exchange over Andrei Babitsky, a Radio Liberty reporter who was being held incommunicado in Chechnya. The journalists voiced the suspicion, shared then by many in Russia, that Babitsky was being held on state orders.…  Seguir leyendo »

The next Russian administration, with Dmitry Medvedev as president and Vladimir Putin remaining at the helm as prime minister, may evolve into something different from Putin's current rule. But the expectations of liberalization that Medvedev's rhetoric and non-KGB background might have raised in some circles are wishful thinking.

Medvedev's campaign was hardly a demonstration of adherence to democratic principles. And his rhetoric, while somewhat softer than Putin's, is barely an indicator of change. Throughout his presidency, Putin repeatedly spoke of the need for the rule of law, free media and other democratic virtues. Yet his policies were increasingly at variance with these principles, and by the end of his presidency the gap between the official rhetoric and reality reached almost Soviet proportions.…  Seguir leyendo »

Around Moscow these days, it is hard to realize that tomorrow's elections are about shaping the legislative branch. All over the city are huge billboards announcing that "Putin Is Our Choice" or "Moscow Votes for Putin." United Russia, the name of the technical front-runner in these elections, appears in tiny script in the bottom right-hand corner of the signs. Campaign signs for other parties are rarely seen.

Indeed, in Russia, what are technically legislative elections have been turned into a referendum on Vladimir Putin's rule, past and future. Using the disguise of parliamentary elections as a way to have his authority reconfirmed should help Putin get around the requirement that he step down in 2008 and should allow him to remain in charge -- in whatever capacity he would carve out for himself -- even after his second presidential term ends.…  Seguir leyendo »

With Vladimir Putin's announcement this week that he would head the pro-Kremlin United Russia party in December's parliamentary elections, Russia's new power configuration began to take shape. Ultimately, it will mean the extension of Putin's authority and a triumph of manipulative politics. But as they have demonstrated, the Russian people won't mind.

The dynamic Putin has created, ensuring himself nearly absolute power, has one important flaw of his own making: Because his authority is much greater than what is spelled out formally in the constitution, and it his alone, there is no way for Putin to transfer his power after, as the constitution requires, he steps down when his second term ends.…  Seguir leyendo »

There's a sea of rumors and theories raging about the Russian presidential succession and what Vladimir Putin would do after -- and if -- he stepped down. The diversity of theories is impressive, illustrating how unpredictable and potentially unstable the situation may become. The range of guesses made by pundits, Kremlin insiders, political analysts and experts at home and abroad is getting broader, not narrower, as the election draws nearer. Moreover, those who venture guesses don't seem to be basing them on even partial knowledge; rather, it's a desire by each to sound more interesting than the other guy.

The list of potential successors starts with the prime minister's two deputies, Sergei Ivanov and Dmitri Medvedev, whom Putin has pushed to the fore.…  Seguir leyendo »