Mathieu Boulègue

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Military vehicles are pictured at a plant, which is part of Russian missile manufacturer Almaz-Antey, in Saint Petersburg on 18 January 2023. Photo by ILYA PITALEV/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images.

InternacionalOTAN

In mid-July, NATO leaders will gather in Washington for the annual summit of the alliance, the 10th such summit since the first invasion of Ukraine in 2014.

The Washington summit also marks a decade of renewed deterrence policy against the Kremlin and international targeted sanctions against Russia. Moscow has been waging its unrelenting war against Ukraine and the wider Western world for over a decade too, with two invasions, as well as upscaling low-intensity warfare activities against Western interests and NATO.

In this context, future NATO policy regarding Russia seems clear: the Kremlin represents a strategic threat to the safety and security of the alliance and its allies.…  Seguir leyendo »

A family visits the Motherland Monument in Kyiv on 21 February 2022 as tensions between pro-Russia separatists and the Ukrainian army increase. Photo by Ali Atmaca/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

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Many ‘false flag’ operations recently deflected attention and concealed Russia’s plans for military action against Ukraine, such as the reported explosion of a gas pipeline in Luhansk, the use of a non-existent ‘threat’ that Ukraine might try to retake Donbas by force because of a reported ‘genocide’, or the general mobilization of separatist troops in occupied Donbas.

Such proven tactics have already been used in a similar way to justify Russia’s intervention in Chechnya in 1999 as well as against Georgia in 2008 among others, so it is no surprise Moscow is using them again. And the organization of a nuclear-readiness check exercise acts as a deterrent against international decision-makers.…  Seguir leyendo »

A family visits the Motherland Monument in Kyiv on 21 February 2022 as tensions between pro-Russia separatists and the Ukrainian army increase. Photo by Ali Atmaca/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

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The Kremlin’s announcement in mid-February of a ‘partial withdrawal’ of several Russian military units from occupied Crimea and other places around Ukraine’s border must – unfortunately – be understood as smoke and mirrors to conceal Russia’s intentions.

Moscow is not de-escalating the current standoff – quite the contrary. Ukraine is already under siege and critical national infrastructure was hit by a record-sized denial of service cyberattack on 15 February.

The Kremlin seems willing to use force against Ukraine again, and the situation remains extremely tense on the ground. More Russian troops are reaching full combat readiness and positioned only a few hours away from the border as well as in Belarus – for the Allied Resolve drills – and on the Black Sea coast.…  Seguir leyendo »

Patrolling the Russian northern military base on Kotelny island, beyond the Artic Circle. Photo by MAXIME POPOV/AFP via Getty Images.

Internacional

Hard security issues are coming back to the Arctic, with the focus on military activity in the European High North area. This is a worrying development.

To encourage a thaw in Cold War relations, the former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s Murmansk speech in October 1987 declared the Arctic should be a ‘zone of peace’ and cooperation. From there, Arctic countries increased their collaboration significantly on issues of common concern, such as environmental protection and sustainable development, and notably through the Arctic Council, founded in 1996. Military activities were scaled back.

Despite the revitalization of intense military interest in the region, the international community remains committed to the idea of ‘Arctic exceptionalism’.…  Seguir leyendo »

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In over a year since President Zelenskyy embarked on his diplomatic effort to ‘end war with Russia’, there have been some steps forward in releasing prisoners of war and a short-lived ceasefire period. But few have any illusions peace is likely in the near future.

Vladimir Putin’s statement in June that ex-Soviet republics had left the USSR 'with gifts from the Russian people’ - meaning they had gained supposedly 'Russian' lands - shows he has no intention of changing Russia’s policy of revisionism and disruption.

And Russia’s recent engagement in Belarus, which could see Minsk losing sovereignty as the result of any bargain Lukashenka may have struck with Putin to stay in power, further endangers Ukraine’s northern border.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russia's President, Vladimir Putin, during a video link with cosmonauts on the International Space Station (ISS). Photo: Getty Images.

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Days before the publication of last week’s report into Russian activity in the UK, and the subsequent call from several UK parliamentarians for a swift response to the ‘Russian threat’, Russia tested a new anti-satellite weapon capability releasing a small projectile from its Kosmos-2543 sub-satellite.

Kosmos-2543, a small satellite contained inside a larger satellite, Kosmos-2542, and 'birthed’ into orbit in late 2019, recently came under scrutiny in January 2020 when it was reportedly caught ‘buzzing’ US spy satellites in Low Earth Orbit.

By releasing a small projectile from the Kosmos-2543 sub-satellite, the US claims that Russia has launched a new projectile into orbit with relatively high speed – estimated at around 500 km per hour – leading to concerns about the potential of Russia to develop this technology as a weapon to target foreign satellites.…  Seguir leyendo »

Young woman wearing a face mask in front of St. Basil's Cathedral, Moscow. Photo by ALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP via Getty Images.

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Persistent internet rumours claiming the coronavirus outbreak originated from a secret American pharmaceutical company with the aim of destroying China from within were quickly discredited. Pop culture fans recognised the supposed activities of the Umbrella Corporation as being from the famous Japanese video games series Resident Evil.

However, although fake news, it can likely be attributed to Russian trolls conducting this and other similar activities online, especially when considered within the wider context of how the Russian regime is using this worldwide crisis to further destabilize the West and test its resolve.

Russian trolls never sleep

Russia’s COVID-19 related actions first and foremost take the form of a vast information warfare campaign, with media outlets simultaneously downplaying the threat of the pandemic - ‘it is less dangerous than seasonal flu’ - while stoking fear about what is happening elsewhere in Europe.…  Seguir leyendo »

Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Putin during a meeting at the Fort de Bregancon, a summer residence of the president of France. Photo by Alexei Druzhinin\TASS via Getty Images.

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There is no world leader with a more contradictory attitude toward Russia than Emmanuel Macron.

The French president was ostensibly the ‘least apologist’ candidate of those running in the first round of the 2017 elections. Compared to the Russian-funded Marine Le Pen on one end of the spectrum, and the radical leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the other, Macron seemed a model of moderation.

To the Kremlin, he must have been perceived as the least desirable candidate for its interests, which is why they hacked the servers of his party, En Marche, just prior to the vote in a last-ditch attempt to derail the campaign.…  Seguir leyendo »

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On 14 April, General Curtis Scaparrotti, the outgoing Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) of NATO Allied Command Operations General, deplored the broken communication process with Russia and a lack of understanding of “each other’s signals”. Immediately afterwards, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko denounced the current deadlock with NATO, claiming cooperation had been discontinued and disagreements with the Atlantic Alliance were now “even deeper than before”.

Relations between NATO and the Kremlin have reached a dangerously abrasive stage, as the existing threat-reduction arrangements and confidence-building mechanisms with Russia are not working. Russia and NATO are talking past each other and substantive dialogue is not possible under current conditions.…  Seguir leyendo »

Seized Ukrainian military vessels in the port of Kerch on 26 November. Photo: Getty Images.

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On 25 November, the Russian coast guard denied access to two Ukrainian armoured artillery boats and a tugboat on their pre-planned transit through the Kerch Strait to Mariupol on the Sea of Azov. Russian forces reportedly assaulted the Ukrainian surface vessels, leaving the crew of 23 captive and 6 Ukrainian servicemen wounded. In the wake of the attack, Russia temporarily closed navigation to non-Russian traffic through the Strait, before reopening it on Monday.

This represents an escalation for Russia in the Sea of Azov, from air and sea provocations to direct military action against Ukrainian assets. It is the latest step in the Kremlin’s long-term efforts to destabilize Ukraine.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian, Chinese and Mongolian troops and military equipment parade during the Vostok-2018 military drills. Photo: Getty Images.

Europa

From 11 to 17 September, the Russian armed forces conducted the active phase of the Vostok-2018 strategic military exercise. Throughout the week, Russia’s far east hosted a coordinated ballet of troops rehearsing across multiple strategic directions. In a twist, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army participated for the first time.

It was an impressive show, but it also offers serious lessons as to Russia’s military planning and preparedness and its diplomatic footing towards both China and the West.

The military dimension

The Vostok 2018 exercise was part of a pre-planned life-cycle of massive drills occurring across all of Russia’s military commands that aim to strengthen command and control (C2) and forces integration.…  Seguir leyendo »

A new Russian frigate, the Admiral Makarov, is prepared for joining Russia's Black Sea fleet. Photo: Getty Images.

InternacionalOTAN

The NATO summit in Brussels on 11-12 July is likely to be highly political. The Atlantic alliance is increasingly polarised due to disagreements over burden-sharing arrangements, national contributions and transatlantic solidarity. But NATO members cannot let these disagreements get in the way of addressing the ‘Russian challenge’ – the increasing tensions with Moscow as the Kremlin explores the boundaries of escalation with the alliance and tried to destabilize it.

Prospects for improving relations with Moscow are minimal, especially in light of recent developments. The latest meeting of the NATO–Russia Council on 31 May (the first since October 2017) and the meeting between the chief of staff of the Russian armed forces, Valery Gerasimov, and the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Joseph Dunford, on 8 June achieved very little.…  Seguir leyendo »

US Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo: Getty Images.

MundoAméricaEuropa, ,

Since Donald Trump took office, Russia has come to hold a unique position in US internal and foreign affairs. It is not simply another ‘rogue state’ in the international arena, but has become a hot-button domestic issue, with ongoing investigations into alleged collusion with the Kremlin.

Trump's personal deference to Vladimir Putin does not reflect the broader picture of tense US–Russia relations. The political and military establishment in Washington sees Russia as a threat, as outlined in the recently published National Security Strategy (NSS) and National Defence Strategy (NDS).

The NSS calls Russia a ‘revisionist power’ while the NDS proclaims the US is in ‘strategic competition’ with the Kremlin.…  Seguir leyendo »

Vladimir Putin meets with defence ministry and defence industry officials in Sochi on 23 November. Photo: Getty Images.

Europa,

On 23 November in Sochi, President Vladimir Putin wrapped up a four-day meetings marathon in the presence of Russia’s military top brass and senior representatives of the defence industry. The now-traditional ‘Sochi meetings’ have been taking place twice a year since 2013 in order to address the main concerns in Russia’s military industry as well as to review advances in military procurement for the armed forces. Today in their tenth iteration, they represent a direct incarnation of President Putin’s ‘manual control’ over the decision-making process in the military industry. The November meetings were primarily aimed at finalizing the upcoming State Armament Programme 2018–2027.…  Seguir leyendo »

Servicemen take part in the joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises Zapad-2017. Photo by Sergei Gapon/AFP/Getty Images

Europa,

Following seven days of "military operations", the fictional country of "Veshnoriya" (with a geography similar to that of the Baltic States) was forced into submission by Russian and Belarusian joint forces.

In a grand display, the "Union State" of Russia and Belarus destroyed the enemy after Veshnoriya tried to stage border incursions and massive air raids.

This scenario was, of course, played out in Russia and Belarus during the Zapad-2017 military exercise. But what were the key takeaways for the watching world?

Small is beautiful

Western commentators were obsessed with the numbers of Russian troops being mobilized during the course of exercise and stuck firmly to the "100,000 servicemen" narrative.…  Seguir leyendo »