Meir Javedanfar

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MundoOriente Próximo,

The best way to understand Iran’s elections this week is to think of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the regime’s supreme investment manager.

Like Warren Buffett, or any other top fund manager, Khamenei is answerable to his shareholders when making a big investment pick. Both men enjoy enormous personal authority, but if they keep hurting the interests of their shareholders by getting the big choices wrong, that authority will erode.

Khamenei’s shareholders consist mainly of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Principalists, a broad coalition of conservative politicians. Where Buffett is judged by the companies and stocks in which he invests, Khamenei is judged by the politicians he picks or supports for positions of authority, and how those people further the economic and political interests of the supreme leader’s supporters.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

Iran's testing of its "Sajjil 2" missile grabbed headlines in the international media. It was described as "an upgraded version of an advanced missile capable of hitting Israel and parts of Europe".

Judging by the reaction of the western press, it seems that the government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has become very adept at convincing them of its superior military capabilities.

And the fact that the Iranian government was able to do two tests of its Sajjil missiles in the space of seven months (the previous one being in May) is a sign that Iran is making significant advances in its missile programme.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaMundoOriente Próximo,

The famous Chinese strategist, Sun Tzu, wrote in his book, The Art of War: "If an enemy has alliances, the problem is grave and the enemy's position strong; if he has no alliances, the problem is minor and the enemy's position weak."

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is currently witnessing how the US, which he sees as the enemy for his nuclear ambitions, is working hard on building alliances, including with Russia. Khamenei is not happy.

So much so that Iran recently cancelled a deal with Russia to launch its communication satellite, and turned to Italy instead. This is in addition to recent complaints from Tehran regarding delays from Russia in the delivery of the S-300 anti-aircraft system.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo

Barack Obama has reason to be proud of himself. The Geneva meeting with Iran on 1 October produced results that exceeded the expectations of many. First, the fact that the Iranians discussed the nuclear programme at all was an important accomplishment: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had previously stated on several occasions that the nuclear file was closed and that it would not be part of the negotiations. Second, Iran apparently agreed to ship some of its low-enriched uranium (LEU) to Russia and France for processing from 3.5% to 20% purity.

Obama owes this achievement to a number of developments. One is the post-election disturbances in Iran, which damaged the regime's image as a stable administration while reducing its legitimacy.…  Seguir leyendo »