Michael Axworthy

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MundoOriente Próximo,

Despite a thin, lingering cloud of buts and maybes, the deal concluded between Iran and six leading countries over Tehran's nuclear programme in the small hours of Sunday morning was historic – the kind of diplomatic agreement that alters the political landscape, forces at least some of the intransigent to change their positions, and opens up new opportunities that previously seemed hopelessly far-fetched.

The core of the interim deal is that Iran has agreed to suspend uranium enrichment above the 5% level (pending a final settlement to be negotiated within the next six months) in exchange for relaxation of some sanctions – a relaxation estimated to be worth $7bn to Iran ("modest", according to the US).…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

As Iranians vote on Friday they are faced with a choice of six potential presidents, two having dropped out of the running in the final few days. One of these was the last overtly reformist candidate, Mohammad Reza Aref, who withdrew in favour of a moderate, Hassan Rouhani. But the election campaign has not caught fire in the way it did in 2009, when the Green movement arose and seemed for a time to be on the point of transforming the Islamic Republic. That is no accident.

Televised debates last week revolved around the economy and the nuclear question. With unemployment at more than 20%, inflation well over 40%, Iran defying the US and its allies over the nuclear question and suffering sanctions that amount to an economic blockade, these debates could have been fierce.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

The latest talks between Iran and six other countries to discuss Iran's nuclear programme, held in Kazakhstan over the last two days, broke up again without a settlement. But there were positive noises from the Iranians, and the negotiators agreed on further talks at technical level in March and in full session again in Almaty in earlyApril.

As the successive rounds of talks have come and gone (in Istanbul, Baghdad and Moscow in 2012, let alone earlier) it It has become clearer that more effort, more political will, is needed at the highest level of the two countries that count most: the US and Iran, if this problem is to be resolved.…  Seguir leyendo »