Michael Kofman

Este archivo solo abarca los artículos del autor incorporados a este sitio a partir del 1 de diciembre de 2006. Para fechas anteriores realice una búsqueda entrecomillando su nombre.

A Ukrainian service member firing an antitank grenade near Bakhmut, Ukraine, May 2023. Sofiia Gatilova / Reuters

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As the Russian winter offensive reaches its culmination, Ukraine is poised to seize the initiative. In the coming weeks, it plans to conduct an offensive operation, or series of offensives, that may prove decisive in this phase of the conflict. This is not Ukraine’s only remaining opportunity to liberate a substantial amount of territory and inflict a major defeat on Russian forces, but the upcoming offensive may be the moment when available Western military equipment, training, and ammunition best intersect with the forces set aside by Ukraine for this operation. Ukraine is also eager to demonstrate that, despite months of brutal fighting, its military is not exhausted and remains able to break through Russian lines.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russia’s Dangerous Decline

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At a White House ceremony on August 9, days after the U.S. Senate agreed in a near-unanimous vote to ratify the expansion of NATO to include Finland and Sweden, U.S. President Joe Biden highlighted how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had backfired on Russian President Vladimir Putin. “He’s getting exactly what he did not want”, Biden announced. “He wanted the Finlandization of NATO, but he’s getting the NATOization of Finland, along with Sweden”. Indeed, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a massive strategic blunder, leaving Russia militarily, economically, and geopolitically weaker.

Ukraine’s offensive in Kharkiv in September underscored the magnitude of Putin’s error.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Russia's lacklustre military performance in Ukraine has badly damaged the reputation of its armed forces. Bogged down, and with losses mounting, the Russian army hardly appears to be the second- or third-most capable force in the world, as was previously thought. Conversely, NATO has been reinvigorated, with Finland and Sweden hoping to join. Vladimir Putin’s invasion has proved to be a colossal miscalculation. Yet some in NATO may be overinterpreting the lessons of this war, and failing to take a longer view of European security. Russia is not going away as a strategic competitor, nor does it have Potemkin armed forces.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russia Is Down. But It’s Not Out.

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The war in Ukraine has undoubtedly tarnished Russia’s standing as a great power.

Russia’s botched invasion of Ukraine, involving a retreat from Kyiv and many tactical blunders, has severely damaged the image of its military as a capable fighting force. The harm is more than reputational: Three months of fighting has dealt Russia heavy losses of troops and equipment. At home, meanwhile, sanctions and export controls — as well as the exodus of Russia’s brightest minds — are hitting the country’s already lackluster economy.

As a result, many in America and Europe are eager to dismiss Russia as a Potemkin power whose exalted status is at an end.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian soldiers take part in drills at the Kadamovskiy firing range in the Rostov region in southern Russia on Jan. 13, 2022. (AP)

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As Ukrainian government websites came under a cyberattack Friday, the White House accused Russia of sending saboteurs into eastern Ukraine to create a pretext for invasion. For months, maps highlighting Russian troop deployments near Ukraine’s border have shown Russian forces massing east of Ukraine — as well as along the northern border, close to the capital, Kyiv.

Over the past year, Russia has been gradually shifting troops, adding to an already robust and permanent military posture. Russia first deployed additional forces in significant numbers in early March 2021. Some of these military units never left the area. In late 2021, the Russian military presence increased further, and additional forces continue to move toward Ukraine, many traveling all the way from Russia’s Far East.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russian soldiers take part in drills at the Kadamovskiy firing range in the Rostov region in southern Russia on Jan. 13, 2022. (AP)

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As Ukrainian government websites came under a cyberattack Friday, the White House accused Russia of sending saboteurs into eastern Ukraine to create a pretext for invasion. For months, maps highlighting Russian troop deployments near Ukraine’s border have shown Russian forces massing east of Ukraine — as well as along the northern border, close to the capital, Kyiv.

Over the past year, Russia has been gradually shifting troops, adding to an already robust and permanent military posture. Russia first deployed additional forces in significant numbers in early March 2021. Some of these military units never left the area. In late 2021, the Russian military presence increased further, and additional forces continue to move toward Ukraine, many traveling all the way from Russia’s Far East.…  Seguir leyendo »

Seized Ukrainian military vessels are seen in a port of Kerch, Crimea, on Nov. 26, 2018. (STR/AFP/Getty Images)

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The Nov. 25 skirmish between Russian Border Guard and Ukrainian navy ships in the Kerch Strait has escalated tensions not just between the two countries, but also between Russia and NATO.

Two Ukrainian navy small-armored boats and a tugboat attempted to cross into the Sea of Azov via the Kerch Strait. A Russian Border Guard ship rammed the tug. Russian forces eventually captured all three boats, holding them in the Crimean port of Kerch.

This crisis kicked off months ago

In March 2018 Ukraine seized a Russian-flagged fishing vessel, claiming that it had violated exit procedures from the “temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine.”…  Seguir leyendo »

Ukraine’s armed forces display military vehicles, tanks and missiles in Kiev on Tuesday. Credit Pierre Crom/Getty Images

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On his visit to Ukraine this week, the American defense secretary, Jim Mattis, confirmed that he favors providing “defensive weapons” to the former Soviet republic. According to recent reports, this military aid would involve sending Javelin anti-tank guided missiles to Ukraine, which has been fighting Russian-backed separatists in the eastern Donbass region for more than three years.

The Trump administration’s plan to arm Kiev is a serious political decision that could have far-reaching strategic consequences. The United States is walking into a proxy war with Moscow — one that it is unprepared to win.

Notionally, helping Ukraine is admirable, but the lack of public discussion and suddenness of this announcement are worrisome.…  Seguir leyendo »

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Russia's submarine fleet, asleep after two decades without a mission or money to patrol the sea, is starting to show life again. This week came reports that Russian attack submarines are "prowling" the coastlines of Scotland, Scandinavia and the Mediterranean Sea in numbers not seen in years.

The reports come after an extended Russian absence from the underwater domain that had led most NATO members to either drawdown, or in many cases completely abandon, their anti-submarine warfare capabilities. Until 2014, the relationship with Russia was politically irksome, but militarily stable, while the Russian submarine force remained parked, in many cases rusting away at the pier.…  Seguir leyendo »

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The one-year anniversary of the tragic shooting down of Flight MH17 over Ukraine is an opportunity to take stock of the costs of Europe's latest, biggest, and apparently most intractable security crisis.

Twelve months after Russia-backed separatists were first accused of shooting down the Malaysia Airlines passenger jet, Europe's relations with Russia -- having advanced by leaps and bounds over nearly three decades since the fall of the Iron Curtain -- have again descended into deep distrust and hostility.

European leaders, initially knocked off balance by Russia's annexation of Crimea and cascading outbreaks of violence in eastern Ukraine, found new resolve when nearly 300 passengers, many of them EU citizens, became victims of the conflict.…  Seguir leyendo »

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The fighting in Ukraine may be escalating, but hopes of a decisive breakthrough in talks and a clear and coordinated Western response -- hopes raised by German Chancellor Angela Merkel's visit to Washington on Monday -- have been dashed, at least for now.

Intensifying clashes in eastern Ukraine following a new Russian-backed separatist offensive on January 13 have fueled debate over how the United States and others should respond to the uptick in violence, including growing talk of the U.S. sending weapons. Just last week, a report by prominent former diplomats and highly respected members of the U.S. national security establishment argued for a drastic increase in U.S.…  Seguir leyendo »

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The buildup of separatist forces in Donetsk, Ukraine, and Moscow's patently confrontational tone are raising the specter of another offensive in eastern Ukraine before winter grips the region. On Wednesday, NATO warned that "columns of Russian equipment, primarily Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defense systems and Russian combat troops" had been spotted entering Ukraine.

Is this crisis about to flare up again, just two months after Russia withdrew its forces?

Given the strategic costs, it might seem unlikely that Russia would reignite this war, especially with winter looming. Yet both the opportunity and the motivation appear to be there in Moscow.…  Seguir leyendo »