Mohammed Ayoob

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MundoOriente Próximo,

Los esfuerzos valientes del secretario de Estado de los Estados Unidos, John Kerry, para salvar el proceso de paz israelí-palestino están a punto de fracasar. Aunque lograr un acuerdo sustancial era un sueño imposible, este desengaño reciente imposibilitará a los Estados Unidos mantener incluso la farsa de un “proceso de paz” que se distinguió por ser más proceso que paz. Y tal vez eso no sea algo malo.

Las negociaciones están fracasando por varias razones, empezando por la continua colonización israelí de los territorios ocupados en 1967, a pesar de la oposición de la comunidad internacional, incluidos los Estados Unidos. Sobre todo, Israel ha acelerado la construcción de los asentamientos desde que empezó la ronda de negociaciones más reciente, mientras que sus demandas han ido en aumento, en especial en lo que se refiere al despliegue de sus tropas en el Valle del Jordán.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo,

In a move likely to have long-lasting consequences, the Egyptian military has ousted President Mohamed Morsy, suspended the constitution and appointed the head of the constitutional court, an implacable foe of the president, as interim head of state.

This act could well foretell an end of the fledgling democratic experiment in the most populous Arab country which, by overthrowing its long-term dictator just a couple years ago, had inspired democracy movements around the Arab world.

Morsy's gravest mistakes have resulted from a deliberate policy of accommodation and not, as is commonly believed, confrontation. He has allowed the military to retain its corporate autonomy and remain beyond civilian control.…  Seguir leyendo »

Europa, ,

Turkey is in danger of being dragged deeper into the Syrian quagmire. The mood in the country is sombre after the cross-border shelling and loss of life on both sides. Over the past few months the near-unanimous enthusiasm for the support Turkey has given the Syrian opposition has gradually given way to a more reflective mood, as the negative consequences of such involvement have become increasingly clear.

Turkish backing for Syria's democratic movement was both idealistic and realistic. The ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) felt that its own legitimacy, which rested on its democratic credentials, could be seriously eroded if did not extend support to the movement next door.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoOriente Próximo, ,

On the surface, the first round of the Egyptian presidential election seemed to show that the Muslim Brotherhood and the remnants of the Mubarak regime are locked in mortal combat for the political soul of Egypt -- as Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi faces pro-military candidate Ahmed Shafik in a second round of voting in June.

Buying into this simplistic formula, however, would be a total misreading of the far more complex picture. To understand the political reality of Egypt and the strengths and weaknesses of the major political forces operating in the country, one needs to look more closely at all of the electoral results.…  Seguir leyendo »

Europa

Turkey has over the past few weeks become the spearhead of a joint Western-Arab-Turkish policy aimed at forcing President Bashar al-Assad to cede power in Syria. This is quite a turnaround in Turkish policy, because over the past two years the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had gone out of its way to cultivate good relations with neighboring Syria, with whom it shares a long land border.

This change of course on Syria has also cost Turkey a great deal in terms of its relations with Iran, the principal supporter of Assad’s regime, which Turkey had also cultivated as part of Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu’s “zero problems with neighbors” policy.…  Seguir leyendo »

Europa

Turkey's expulsion of the Israeli ambassador, the downgrading of its diplomatic relations with Israel, and the Erdogan government's increasingly firm position on the Israeli attack on the Mavi Marmara signify more than a temporary hiccup in Turkish-Israeli relations. It is a clear signal that Ankara is fed up with Israel's foot-dragging on the apology and compensation that Turkey has demanded as a precondition for the normalisation of Turkish-Israeli relations. The UN's Palmer Commission report, which justified the Israeli blockade of Gaza but accused Israel of using "excessive force" against the flotilla, has been rejected by Turkey. Ankara now plans to take the case against the blockade to the international court of justice (ICJ).…  Seguir leyendo »