Naomi Oreskes

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OceanGate Expeditions’ Titan submersible. OceanGate Expeditions, via Associated Press

ReflexionesPensamiento, Cultura y Ciencia,

As details emerged about the implosion last week of the Titan submersible in its descent to the wreck of the Titanic nearly two and a half miles below the surface of the North Atlantic, there was widespread anger that its owner and pilot knowingly took civilians on an uncertified vessel to a depth of crushing pressure.

The billionaire investor Ray Dalio, who founded the ocean exploration company OceanX with his son, Mark, expressed what he described on Twitter as his “great anger”. He accused Stockton Rush, the chief executive of OceanGate, who was piloting the Titan, of “reckless disregard for tried-and-true safety protocols that have made manned submersible exploration extremely safe”.…  Seguir leyendo »

ReflexionesNaturaleza,

Last week’s report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was bad news from top to bottom. Dangerous planetary warming is underway, it’s happening faster than scientists predicted, and time is running out to stop it.

The problem seems so intractable, the challenges of addressing it so monumental, as to defy solving. But the history of technology offers reasons for optimism. Major technological transformations can occur over 10 to 30 years. That’s why the time lost since 1992, when governments first signed a landmark climate treaty to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, is so distressing. If we had set to work then, as President George H.W.…  Seguir leyendo »

Playing Dumb on Climate Change

ReflexionesNaturaleza,

Scientists have often been accused of exaggerating the threat of climate change, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that they ought to be more emphatic about the risk. The year just concluded is about to be declared the hottest one on record, and across the globe climate change is happening faster than scientists predicted.

Science is conservative, and new claims of knowledge are greeted with high degrees of skepticism. When Copernicus said the Earth orbited the sun, when Wegener said the continents drifted, and when Darwin said species evolved by natural selection, the burden of proof was on them to show that it was so.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsia, ,

At the U.N. climate negotiations in Warsaw on Monday, the lead Philippine delegate, Yeb Sano, made an emotional plea: "Typhoons such as Haiyan and its impacts represent a sobering reminder to the international community that we cannot afford to procrastinate on climate action."

But was Sano's statement consistent with the science? Most of the scientists who have been asked that question in recent days have replied with dutiful statements that sound like "no." No single event can be attributed to climate change. No trends can yet be clearly detected — above the noise of natural variability — to indicate the increases in tropical cyclone intensity that we expect global warming to bring.…  Seguir leyendo »

ReflexionesNaturaleza,

At the recent annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union, scientists presented evidence of climate change proceeding more rapidly than they had imagined 15, 10 or even five years ago. After a brief hiatus due mostly to the economic downturn, they noted, global greenhouse gas emissions are rising again. Arctic sea ice is retreating at an unprecedented rate, sea levels are rising more rapidly than anticipated, and the sea-surface temperatures that drive tropical storms and hurricanes are rising, too.

Another topic at last month’s gathering was how the latest climate models do not account for the additional warming caused by methane release from thawing permafrost and the continental shelves.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAmérica, ,

Recently I had jury duty, and during jury selection something remarkable occurred. Early in the proceedings, the judge posed a hypothetical question to the 60 or so potential jurors in the room: "If I were to send you out now and ask you to render a verdict, what would it be? How many of you would vote not guilty?" A few raised their hands. "How many would vote guilty?" A few more raised their hands. "And how many would say you didn't know enough to decide?" Every remaining hand — about 50 people — went up immediately.

That, of course, was the wrong answer, and the judge proceeded to explain why.…  Seguir leyendo »

ReflexionesNaturaleza,

With the release of the new report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change tomorrow, the fourth since the organization's founding in 1988, many will be looking for what's new. How have estimates of sea-level rise changed? How soon will we achieve a doubling of carbon dioxide levels?

Scientists and journalists focus on novelty, because both are largely about discovery. But from a policy perspective, what matters is not what's new but what's old. What matters are not the details that may have shifted since the last report, or that may shift again in the next one, but that the broad framework is established beyond a reasonable doubt.…  Seguir leyendo »