Natasha Hall

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There’s Still a Chance to Get Syria Right

MundoOriente Próximo

Four months after the euphoria that marked the sudden ouster of Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s brutal dictator, the fragility of the country’s new reality is clear.

Syria, awash in weapons and trauma and with almost no money to rebuild, is exceptionally vulnerable. Its economy is in a state of collapse, 90 percent of the population lives below the poverty line, and the state can only provide two hours of electricity a day. Half of the infrastructure is either destroyed or dysfunctional. A recent U.N. report determined that, at current growth rates, Syria would not regain its pre-conflict GDP before 2080.

In this febrile environment, the Islamic State could re-emerge, and the caretaker government, starved for funds, could start trafficking in illicit goods, as the Assad regime did with the illegal amphetamine captagon.…  Seguir leyendo »

A car burns at the side of the damaged by shelling maternity hospital in Mariupol, Ukraine, on March 9. (Evgeniy Maloletka/AP)

Europa, , ,

Russian troops are increasingly bogged down in Ukraine — and global sanctions have hit the Russian economy hard. As the economic costs of invading Ukraine rise, will the Kremlin look at cost-saving warfare strategies it used in Syria? The bombing of Ukrainian hospitals suggest Russia may be doing this already.

Our research on Russia’s campaign in Syria offers insights into what those strategies might entail. In Syria, Russian troops shifted the course of a civil war by destroying critical infrastructure from the air, deploying widespread siege tactics, and using paramilitary and local fighters to advance the country’s goals. If Russia’s intervention in Ukraine drags on, our findings suggest that Russian strategies along these lines will raise the costs for civilians significantly.…  Seguir leyendo »