Nathalie Tocci

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Trump-Proofing Europe

MundoAméricaEuropaUnión EuropeaPolítica Exterior

As Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its third year, Europe has performed far better than expected. For decades after World War II, it counted on the United States to be the ultimate guarantor of its security. The continent relied on Washington to guide NATO policy, provide nuclear deterrence, and forge consensus among European countries on controversial questions such as how to resolve the 2009–12 European debt crisis. Europe continued to take the U.S. security umbrella for granted after the Cold War ended, slashing defense spending, failing to stop the Bosnian genocide in the early 1990s, and refusing to play a political role in resolving the crisis in Syria, even as it remained the region’s biggest provider of humanitarian aid.…  Seguir leyendo »

Occidente fracturado

InternacionalOrden Mundial

Cuando Rusia invadió Ucrania, Occidente tenía un sólido argumento normativo y estratégico. Rusia había violado los pilares del Derecho internacional —soberanía e integridad territorial— y Ucrania tenía derecho a defenderse. Occidente basó su apoyo económico, político y militar a Ucrania y sus sanciones a Rusia en los principios del derecho y en el imperativo estratégico de defender el orden de seguridad europeo. Como es bien sabido, el resto del mundo no lo ve exactamente igual. Los países del sur global consideran que Ucrania es una guerra europea y están más preocupados por sus consecuencias, especialmente en términos de seguridad alimentaria y energética, que por sus causas.…  Seguir leyendo »

Armenian servicemen checking the cars of Karabakh Armenians fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh near Kornidzor, Armenia, 29 September 2023. Photograph: Anatoly Maltsev/EPA

MundoCáucaso, , , ,

The president of the self-declared “Republic of Artsakh”, Samvel Shahramanyan, has dissolved all institutions of the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh and almost all Karabakh Armenians are now thought to fled the enclave being reintegrated into Azerbaijan. What lessons can be drawn from the tragic epilogue of this three decades-long secessionist conflict in Europe?

The images of long queues of cars escaping mountainous Karabakh to neighbouring Armenia bring back dark memories of ethnic cleansing that Europe thought had been relegated to its past. Just as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with its imperial follies, trenches and wanton destruction, catapulted Europe back into the harrowing days of the world wars, the flight of ethnic Armenians rewinds us to the Balkans of the 1990s – or even further back, to the end of the Ottoman empire during the first world war.…  Seguir leyendo »

Migrants arriving near al-Assah on the Libya-Tunisia border, 30 July 2023. Photograph: Mahmud Turkia/AFP/Getty Images

EuropaUnión EuropeaPolítica Inmigración

European governments are beginning to panic about migration again. So far this year there have been nearly 120,000 “irregular” arrivals. Most of these people travelled through Tunisia and Libya and on to Italy. It is the highest number since 2017, the year after the EU – fearing a populist backlash – did a morally questionable deal with Turkey, channelling €6bn to Ankara in exchange for Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s agreement to prevent 3.5 million refugees, most of them displaced by the war in Syria, from reaching EU territory.

This time, leaders in some countries, like Austria and Germany, fear another nationalist backlash.…  Seguir leyendo »

MundoAsiaEuropaUnión EuropeaPolítica Exterior, ,

El Gobierno de Giorgia Meloni se encuentra en un aprieto ante la disyuntiva de renovar el controvertido Memorándum de Entendimiento entre Italia y China sobre la Iniciativa de la Franja y la Ruta (BRI, por sus siglas en inglés, conocido como Nueva Ruta de la Seda) o cancelarlo unilateralmente. A menos que se interrumpa, el acuerdo se renovará automáticamente a finales de año.

El memorándum Italia-China fue firmado en 2019 por el Gobierno de Giuseppe Conte, apoyado por el Movimiento Cinco Estrellas y la Liga. Lo que se conoce como la amarillo-verde destacó como el primer Gobierno populista en toda regla de Italia, ya que los partidos de la extrema izquierda y la extrema derecha unieron sus fuerzas a favor de una agenda populista, nacionalista y altamente euroescéptica.…  Seguir leyendo »

‘When floods devastated parts of northern Italy, hard-right prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, actually blamed climate policy.’ Meloni visits flood-hit Faenza in May. Photograph: Palazzo Chigi Press Office/Reuters

ReflexionesNaturalezaEuropaUnión Europea,

When floods swept Europe in July 2021, killing more than 200 people in Germany, Belgium and neighbouring countries, it was a disaster that came as the climate crisis was moving to the top of Europe’s political agenda. All of a sudden, climate was no longer an abstract threat that could be batted into a distant future; it was already here, causing shocking weather events, destroying lives and leaving people homeless.

In northern Europe especially, spurred by the Fridays for Future school strikes, the climate crisis had already spilled into politics, pushing policy into action. But in 2021, measurable progress towards the goal of net zero emissions by 2050 began to be made.…  Seguir leyendo »

‘Ukraine’s resistance has secured Moldova’s existence, and Moldovans are now sowing the seeds for their European future.’ A pro-EU rally in Chisinau, Moldova, 21 May 2023. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Europa, , , ,

While Russia’s war on Ukraine rages on and Kyiv prepares its counteroffensive, Moldova, the former Soviet republic sandwiched between Ukraine and the EU, is fortunate to be still standing. Had Russia succeeded in its original war aims, not only would it have captured Kyiv and Odesa, but from there it would have been a matter of days before Russian forces had reached Chisinau.

Moldovan authorities have no doubt this was Vladimir Putin’s plan. The prime minister, Dorin Recean, is crystal clear: Moldova survives only thanks to Ukrainian resistance. If Moscow had been able to spread the war to Moldova, there is no way it would have been able to put up the kind of fight the Ukrainian armed forces have.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaUnión EuropeaPolítica Exterior, , ,

On July 26, the European Union announced a gas deal that was aimed at showing member states’ continued resolve on Russia: according to the agreement, EU states will reduce gas consumption by 15 percent between August and March, thus helping prevent a crisis in the winter by showing solidarity and limiting Russia’s ability to weaponize Europe’s energy supply. On the surface, it was a further demonstration of the unified front that the continent has mostly maintained since the outset of the war. In reality, however, the cuts are voluntary and many individual states have carveouts that call into question how meaningful the deal will be, especially when gas shortages will affect some much more than others.…  Seguir leyendo »

InternacionalOTAN

Como resultado de la creciente agresividad de Rusia, la disuasión de la OTAN ha aumentado gradualmente hasta llegar a los actuales 40.000 efectivos en alerta máxima. 40.000 soldados son una disuasión eficaz, pero no una defensa real donde se necesita. Rusia había movilizado a más de 200.000 personas en sus fronteras occidentales antes de lanzar su invasión de Ucrania. La cumbre de la OTAN no podía dejar de tomar nota de que la guerra está ahí y que es probable que continúe. Mientras Vladímir Putin siga en el poder, es imposible imaginar una paz real. Por eso la postura militar está cambiando: sería irresponsable no hacerlo.…  Seguir leyendo »

Preparations are made for European leaders to meet with Iranian representatives in Brussels on 15 May. Photo: Getty Images.

MundoOriente PróximoEuropaUnión EuropeaPolítica Exterior,

US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), will severely degrade regional and global security. His decision has increased the risk of war and a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and beyond. He has undermined attempts to limit the proliferation of nuclear weapons through multilateral diplomacy, as unilateral withdrawal equals non-compliance with a legally-binding UN Security Council resolution. This is a rejection of the UN as arbiter of international peace and security, as well as of international law as a lynchpin of international relations.

The steps that Europeans now take will have serious consequences for their alliance with the US, for security in the Middle East, as well as for their relations vis-à-vis China, Russia and the wider world.…  Seguir leyendo »

EuropaUnión EuropeaPolítica Exterior, , , , ,

Recientemente han asumido el poder nuevos gobiernos en varios Estados miembros de la UE; en otros, es inminente un cambio de dirección. En los últimos 15 meses ha llegado al poder un nuevo gobierno en Alemania, Italia y Suecia. En los Países Bajos, tras las elecciones de noviembre de 2006, se está formando una nueva coalición de gobierno.Y, por supuesto, es casi seguro que el presidente Chirac y el primer ministro Blair dejen sus cargos en el primer semestre de 2007.

En este contexto, pedimos a expertos de Alemania, Francia, Italia, los Países Bajos, Suecia y el Reino Unido que examinaran cómo estos cambios políticos están cambiando, o podrían cambiar, la política exterior de sus respectivos Estados.…  Seguir leyendo »