Total’s agreement to re-enter Iran after an absence of five years is a major boon for former US president Barack Obama’s landmark nuclear deal reached in 2015 between Iran and the P5+1. The deal is significant because it signals Total’s confidence in the Iranian market in spite of growing anti-Iranian rhetoric in Washington, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, which aims to further isolate Iran and actively discourage international businesses from investing in the country. As an energy deal, it is not groundbreaking, and is unlikely to unlock the floodgates and lead to an early rush of international businesses entering Iran. But it does carry with it an opportunity to embolden President Hassan Rouhani’s economic reform agenda and strengthen the hands of the moderates.… Seguir leyendo »
Nota: Este archivo abarca los artículos publicados por el autor desde el 1 de mayo de 2009. Para fechas anteriores realice una búsqueda entrecomillando su nombre.
To many, Western policy towards Syria over the past six years – to the extent there has been coherent action – looks largely a failure. Russia and Iran (and now Turkey) have won both diplomatic and military battles in Syria and now appear in place to shape the eventual outcome in their interests – game over.
But look closer, and Western powers – specifically the US, the EU, the UK and France – still retain some leverage. If applied effectively – and that is a huge if – they could still shape the final political settlement, support an inclusive reconstruction process, tackle extremism and help alleviate the refugee crisis.… Seguir leyendo »