Orysia Lutsevych

Yesterday’s meeting between presidents Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Joe Biden was likely their last. Beyond thanking Biden for a surge in military assistance and leading a free democratic world in support of Ukraine, Zelenskyy had one last go at achieving something bigger.

Kyiv wants Washington to align with its strategic objectives and defeat Putin in Ukraine. Zelenskyy’s ‘victory plan’ is, of course, a war plan that calls for military and financial support, increased sanction pressure on Russia and a new post-war security arrangement. Zelenskyy believes that NATO extending an invitation to Ukraine now is the only step that can reassure Ukrainians about their future security, enable rebuilding – and signal to Putin that it he cannot win.…  Seguir leyendo »

During more than two years of full-scale war against Ukraine, Russia has launched 8,000 missiles and 4,630 drones, targeting densely populated cities, energy-generating facilities, large shopping centres, schools, hospitals, railway stations and high-rise buildings.

Failing to make significant progress on land, Putin’s strategy is to make Ukraine uninhabitable by causing a humanitarian disaster, depriving its enterprises of energy supply and thereby push Kyiv’s leadership to accept a false peace deal.

The estimated price tag for rebuilding Ukraine has already reached $486 billion. In 2023 alone Russia caused destruction totalling $75 billion. Most of these funds would reach Ukraine once open military hostilities are over, but Kyiv is already seeking not only military assistance but also micro-financial aid and investments to sustain the resilience of its home front.…  Seguir leyendo »

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is rapidly approaching its second anniversary – and is not going according to plan for either side.

In a major reset that President Zelenskyy believes can change the trajectory of the conflict, he has sacked his commander-in-chief, General Valeriy Zaluzhny. After a series of disagreements, Zelenskyy has called for a ‘united approach across the whole frontline and a new vision for the war, mobilization and recruitment’.

It is a herculean task for his new chief, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky, previously commander of ground forces, given the reality of the current phase of war.

Ukraine had hoped to achieve a ‘miracle on Dnipro’ in 2023 by retaking substantial land in the south to cut Russian supplies to occupied Crimea and make the peninsula vulnerable.…  Seguir leyendo »

The Ukraine Recovery Conference in Lugano was an admirable gathering of government representatives, Western donors, the private sector, and civil society, with discussions focusing on a new Ukrainian National Recovery Plan. But ultimately it has produced little of immediate relevance to the demands of wartime, and provided no solutions to support the survival of the Ukrainian state in the short-term.

The Ukrainian government’s recovery scenario assumes the war will last until the end of 2022 – that is a big assumption as Russia shows no sign of giving up. Vladimir Putin may have changed tactics to focus on Donbas, but his overall strategic objective remains unchanged – to ensure Ukraine capitulates and is crippled militarily, socially, and economically.…  Seguir leyendo »

As he tries to assert an even bigger ambition on the European continent, Vladimir Putin appears to be losing patience with Ukraine. The proxy-war in Donbas has inflicted much suffering on its citizens but has not subverted Kyiv’s determination to pursue the Euro-Atlantic integration and reforms which destroy the Soviet legacy Putin cherishes so much.

Ukraine is progressing along the bumpy road of aligning its political and economic system to countries in the European Union (EU), while also successfully building a decentralized nation of strong communities at home. Its economy now survives without Russian energy, and most exports go to China and the EU instead of Russia.…  Seguir leyendo »