Parag Khanna

Nota: Este archivo abarca los artículos publicados por el autor desde el 1 de diciembre de 2007. Para fechas anteriores realice una búsqueda entrecomillando su nombre.

At least four of the eight attackers in November's terrorist attacks in Paris were French citizens.

While anti-immigrant European politicians are using the attacks as an excuse to restrict the current refugee inflow, the fact is that stemming the flow of migrants won't diminish the pool of home-grown radicals.

Indeed, an estimated 30,000 foreigners have flocked to Syria to join the battle there. Both male and female youths, of dozens of nationalities and diverse ethnicities, have been lured by the visions of paradise or promises of adventure made first by al Qaeda and now ISIS.

Since many are Caucasian or African, they don't fit the stereotypes long used by customs and border agents who have focused on screening Arabs and Pakistanis.…  Seguir leyendo »

La creciente facilidad con que la gente puede intercambiar bienes, servicios y mano de obra directamente a través de Internet está transformando el funcionamiento de las economías modernas. Pero para garantizar que esta ascendiente “economía del compartir” funcione eficientemente y mejore la situación de todos, hará falta algo de regulación.

Ahora la gente tiene medios para eludir muchas de las empresas de servicio tradicionales. Puede compartir medios de transporte mediante Uber, Lyft o RelayRides; ofrecer alojamiento a través de Airbnb; subcontratar tareas hogareñas en TaskRabbit, Fiverr o Mechanical Turk; y organizar la entrega de las compras a través de Favor e Instacart.…  Seguir leyendo »

IAEA inspectors and Iranian technicians at the Natanz facility, Iran, on January 20, 2014.

Fresh bilateral talks have started in Geneva this week between the United States and Iran over Tehran's nuclear ambitions -- but it is unlikely that the P5+1 group will lift major financial sanctions before the July deadline for this round of negotiations.

Instead, the most likely scenario appears to be an extending of the current interim agreement. Although the IAEA recently verified that Iran has eliminated its second stage uranium enrichment capacity, which was something of a significant concession, Tehran is unlikely to gain a permanent lifting of oil and banking sanctions by way of return.

Nevertheless, there is still a clear trend towards a break between commercial and nuclear diplomacy.…  Seguir leyendo »

La enmarañada red de organizaciones internacionales que constituye la gobernación mundial ha llegado a ser tan remota e ineficaz, que ya pocos cuentan con ella para que dé resultados. Ahora, después de decenios de rivalidades territoriales y automarginación, las organizaciones internacionales deben unirse en torno a una prioridad mundial cada vez más apremiante: la urbanización sostenible.

El mundo está experimentando una ola irreversible y sin precedentes de urbanización, pues el porcentaje de la población mundial que viva en ciudades alcanzará el 60 por ciento en 2030, pero la rápida urbanización está haciendo subir el consumo industrial de combustibles fósiles y el consumo de agua de los hogares y aumentando la demanda de comestibles en zonas en las que las tierras arables son escasas.…  Seguir leyendo »

La elección de un nuevo papa siempre desata un debate sobre la tensión entre tradición y modernidad en la Iglesia Católica. Quizás más interesante sea la modernización en curso del idioma en el que se conducen esos debates: latín.

Si bien las doctrinas católicas han evolucionado lentamente, el vocabulario latín se ha expandido sostenidamente en los últimos años, lo que refleja la aparición de neologismos (palabras, usos y expresiones nuevos) que ha acompañado el papel cada vez más prominente de la tecnología en las vidas cotidianas de la gente. La incorporación de términos como telephonium albo televisifico coniunctum (telepresencia por video) y usus agonisticus medicamenti stupecfactivi (drogas que mejoran el rendimiento) ayudó a generar un resurgimiento de la educación en latín en Occidente, a pesar de una creciente competencia del mandarín.…  Seguir leyendo »

“Es la economía, estúpido”, acuñada por el equipo de campaña del expresidente de Estados Unidos, Bill Clinton, es quizá la frase común más citada de la política estadounidense moderna. Pero a medida que los tiempos cambian, debemos actualizar nuestros aforismos.

Sólo hace cuatro años durante la elección presidencial estadounidense, el outsourcing a India y la manipulación de la moneda china eran “el coco”, el primero fue culpado por la pérdida de trabajos y el segundo por la debilidad de las exportaciones.

Pero cada vez más, el culpable es el robot. La automatización ahora elimina tantos empleos de la industria de la manufactura como la subcontratación (o outsourcing).…  Seguir leyendo »

Of all the formulations deployed in recent years to describe the emerging world order, G-2 is probably the worst and most dangerous.

Americans don’t like the idea of another rival so quickly achieving strategic parity and influence, and the Chinese are uncomfortable with such a high-level responsibility commensurate with their weight.

The U.S.-China relationship can hardly be described as agreeable, progressive, or even productive. And yet people keep coming back to the idea of a G-2 because the alternatives can seem so inefficient.

The G-20 — with its unwieldy membership of irrelevant countries like Argentina and Italy — can barely tackle financial regulation, let alone climate change, failed states and nuclear proliferation.…  Seguir leyendo »

2010 was the year that removed all doubt that cybersecurity is now a geopolitical problem.

We learned from diplomatic cables exposed by WikiLeaks that from Europe to the Middle East to China and beyond, Washington is having an even tougher time than we thought getting what it wants. The leaks themselves have only made matters more delicate, not just by embarrassing some of America’s friends, but by fueling conspiracy theories that Washington was somehow behind the leaks.

Yet WikiLeaks was far from the only big cyberstory in 2010. Google’s public spat with China, the fight over BlackBerry devices in India and the Persian Gulf, and the sudden appearance in July of a virus called Stuxnet that appears to have targeted and degraded Iran’s nuclear facilities made news, as well.…  Seguir leyendo »

The fate of the massive deposits of lithium recently discovered in Afghanistan is destined to be no different from that of landlocked Central Asia’s other natural resources: tapped by the West, and eventually controlled by the East.

Siberian timber, Mongolian iron ore, Kazakh oil, Turkmen natural gas and Afghan copper are already channeled directly to China through a newly built East-bound network that is fueling the rapid development of the world’s largest population.

China’s head-start in building roads, railways and pipelines across Central Asia creates an opportunity for the West — and the region itself. Rather than engaging in a high-stakes competition for Central Asia’s valuable resources — a new round of the 19th century Great Game — the West should support China’s initial steps by coaching local governments on how to expand textile and agricultural exports and avoid the resource curse that blights many developing, one-commodity nations.…  Seguir leyendo »

We are entering - for those keeping track - the new new, new new world order. President George Bush Snr's world order of multilateral cooperation was embarrassed by Somalia, Rwanda and Bosnia. Pax Americana, rebranded as globalisation under Bill Clinton, was shattered by 9/11. For the past seven years we've been living under the "war on terror" world order paradigm, creating more cleavages than it has healed.

But this time the conditions are very different. The world has stopped waiting for the US - and its next president - to declare its roadmap for the future. Instead, the other 96% of the planet has decided to move on with its business.…  Seguir leyendo »

This past week saw not only the Irish rejection of the Lisbon treaty, forcing a crisis summit this week to chart an alternative path to EU continuity, but also the annual EU-American summit in Slovenia, aiming to forge a common transatlantic agenda on Middle East peace, climate change and trade. The Irish vote is likely to fuel rumours of the EU's demise, yet it is the latter summit that will prove more revealing about its future. While mending transatlantic divides is commendable, the summit presents an opportunity to rectify misperceptions about the US leading and Europe following on global issues. No matter who occupies the White House, the actual trend is the reverse.…  Seguir leyendo »

Es difícil encontrar un occidental que intuitivamente no apoye la idea de un Tíbet libre. Ahora bien, ¿acaso los norteamericanos dejarían que se les separaran Texas o California? En el caso de China, el juego de altos vuelos que se trajeron ingleses y rusos por el control del Asia central no concluyó ayuno de consecuencias ni de resultados, cosa que no puede decirse de Rusia o Gran Bretaña. De hecho, la gran ganadora de ese juego fue China.

Los acuerdos sobre fronteras de 1895 y 1907 dejaron en manos de Rusia el macizo de Pamir y establecieron el Pasillo de Vaján, la estrecha franja oriental de Afganistán fronteriza con China, para que hiciera de parachoques con Gran Bretaña.…  Seguir leyendo »

It is difficult to find a westerner who does not intuitively support the idea of a free Tibet. But would Americans ever let go of Texas or California? For China, the Anglo-Russian great game for control of central Asia was neither inconclusive nor fruitless, something that cannot be said for Russia or Britain. Indeed, China was the big winner.

Boundary agreements in 1895 and 1907 gave Russia the Pamir mountains and established the Wakhan Corridor - the slender eastern tongue of Afghanistan that borders China - as a buffer to Britain. But rather than cede East Turkestan (Uighurstan) to the Russians, the British financed China's recapture of the territory, which it organised into Xinjiang (which means "New Dominions").…  Seguir leyendo »